Monday, March 16, 2020

Markets plunge again, triggering circuit breakers

Dow plunged 1565 (about 1K ABOVE earlier lows), only 141 stocks on the NYS were up & NAZ tumbled 485.  The MLP index dropped 13 to the 83s & the REIT sank 33 (10%) to the 218s (more than 100 below recent record highs).  Junk bond funds had sharp declines along with selling in the stock market & Treasuries were in strong demand.  Oil fell almost 2 to the 29s & gold sank 27 to 1488 (down almost 200 in the last couple of weeks).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil29.85
 -1.88 -5.9%

GC=FGold1,477.50  -39.20-2.6%







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When does safety supersede symbolism?  In the case of the New York Stock Exchange, it may be as early as this week following another emergency rate cut by the Federal Reserve yesterday to combat the financial fallout from the coronavirus crisis.  The exchange's media relations dept has said that the famed floor in lower Manhattan opened today, one-floor trader who has worked at the NYSE for more than 2 decades says, “(The Wall Street trading floor) may be federally ordered to close. The situation is changing day by day, hour by hour.”  Another floor trader said his sources indicate a more pointed possibility.  “There’s an 80 percent chance that Tuesday or Wednesday it will be mandatory that the floor shuts down.”  As such, NYSE has taken a number of steps to protect the health & safety of the NYSE community and, importantly, to work to keep the NYSE equity & options trading floors open for business in the days & weeks ahead.  But if the CME-- considered the world's largest futures & derivatives trading floor & platform--is any indication, the NYSE traders may be asked to stay home.  The Chicago marketplace, which dates back to 1898, shuttered its trading floor Fri until further notice.  While the CME said it has no coronavirus cases among its Chicago Board of Trade trading floor community, the closure decision was taken as a precautionary measure.  The CME is the first major US exchange to close.  Trading will continue electronically but the ‘open-outcry’ --the method that consists of floor traders standing in a trading pit to call out orders, prices, & quantities of a particular commodity or its derivatives--does not allow for the social distancing now being called for by authorities across the nation to help prevent the spread of the virus.

NYSE trading floor likely to close this week


China factory production plunged at the sharpest pace in 30 years in the first 2 months of the year as the fast-spreading coronavirus & strict containment measures severely disrupted the economy.  Urban investment & retail sales also fell sharply & for the first time on record, reinforcing views that the epidemic may have cut China's growth by ½ in Q1 & that authorities will need to do more to restore growth.  Industrial output fell by a much larger-than-expected 13.5% in Jan-Feb from the same period a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.  That was the weakest reading since Jan 1990 when records started & a sharp reversal of the 6.9% growth in Dec.   The forecast was for a rise of 1.5%, though estimates varied widely.  The dire batch of official economic data also showed a shocking declines in the retail & property sectors.  Fixed asset investment fell 24.5% year-on-year, dashing forecasts for a 2.8% rise & skidding from the 5.4% growth in the prior period.  Private sector investment dove 26.4% from a year earlier.  Retail sales shrank 20.5% on-year, compared with a rise of 0.8% forcast & 8% growth in Dec as consumers shunned crowded places like shopping malls, restaurants & movie theaters.  China's jobless rate rose to 6.2% in Feb, compared with 5.2% in Dec & the highest since the official records were published.  While officials say the epidemic's peak in China had passed, analysts warn it could take months before the economy returns to normal.  The fast spread of the virus around the world is also sparking fears of a global recession that would dampen demand for Chinese goods.  The NBS said the impact from the coronavirus epidemic is controllable & short-term & authorities would strengthen policy to restore economic & social order.  Mainland China has seen an overall drop in new coronavirus infections, but major cities such as Beijing & Shanghai continued to wrestle with cases involving infected travelers arriving from abroad, which could undermine China's virus fighting efforts.

China's economy skids as virus paralyzes factories, households


The IMF said it “stands ready” to use its $1T lending capacity to help countries around the world that are struggling with the humanitarian & economic impact of the novel coronavirus.  “As a first line of defense, the Fund can deploy its flexible and rapid-disbursing emergency response toolkit to help countries with urgent balance-of-payment needs,” IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said.  “The Fund already has 40 ongoing arrangements — both disbursing and precautionary — with combined commitments of about $200 billion,” she added.  “In many cases, these arrangements can provide another vehicle for the rapid disbursement of crisis financing.”  Georgieva wrote on the IMF/s website that the lending could be used to aid its members, especially emerging & developing countries.  She said the Fund's Catastrophe Containment & Relief Trust “can help the poorest countries with immediate debt relief, which will free up vital resources for health spending, containment, and mitigation.”  The announcement comes ahead of what's expected to be another dismal day for US stocks despite a multilateral move by the globe's central banks to ease monetary policy to help countries cope with the fallout of the coronavirus.  The Federal Reserve, for example, said yesterday that it will embark on a historic & massive monetary stimulus campaign to juice economic growth.  The central bank said it will slash US interest rates to 0 & launch a $700B quantitative easing program to shelter the economy from the effects of the virus.

IMF says it’s ready to mobilize its $1 trillion lending capacity’ to fight coronavirus

Words don't mean much in all the chaos.  But the Dow has recovered 1K from the earlier lows.  Seeming endless streams of money being thrown at the market are bringing out bargain hunters.  But gloomy data for the China econoomy should be considered an strong indication of what to expect for US data in the coming weeks.

Dow Jones Industrials








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