Monday, August 3, 2020

Markets climb higher on hopes for stimulus talks

Dow went up 56, advancers over decliners 4-3 & NAZ  jumped 121 to another new record.  The  MLP index was about even in the 126s & the REIT index fell 5+ to the 353s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were sold.  Oil rose. heading for 51, & gold added 5 to 1968 as it closes in on 2K.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil40.80
+0.53+1.3%

GC=FGold   1,960.30
 -2.50 -0.1%






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The Trump administration is considering taking "a number of options" without congressional approval as negotiations on the 4th coronavirus stimulus relief package are stalled between the White House & lawmakers.  A senior administration official said that the administration is weighing taking unilateral action to quell the economic repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic.  "As the negotiations continue to progress as a snail's pace, the administration is considering a number of options that might be available without congressional legislative action," the official said, it is unclear what item the administration could attempt unilateral action on, but much of the negotiations on Capitol Hill have come to a stalemate with regards to unemployment benefits.  “Those that are counting on enhanced unemployment need to be gravely concerned about the lack of progress,”  White House chief of staff Mark Meadows said.  “My recommendation would be for them to call their members of Congress and their senators and ask them why they are not willing to compromise when obviously the White House is willing to compromise.”  Meadows added: “There are two things standing in the way to a deal on enhanced unemployment benefits continuing. One is Sen. [Chuck] Schumer and Speaker [Nancy] Pelosi and the other is a negotiating tactic that puts people at risk.”  Enhanced unemployment benefits, which provided an additional $600 per week to those without work, expired at the end of Jul.  Dems want the next package to continue the $600 weekly payments, but Reps are concerned that in some cases this results in people collecting more money than they earned from their jobs, disincentivizing them to return to work when possible.  The Rep HEALS Act – which bears a $1T price tag compared with $3T for the Dem HEROES Act – provides an extra $200 per week.  In the meantime, Reps offered to continue the $600 payments for one more week while lawmakers negotiate, but Dems, who proposed their bill in the House back in May, rejected this.

White House mulls unilateral actions with coronavirus relief bill stuck in Congress


Despite the largest quarterly drop in history, the US economy has "one bright spot" despite the coronavirus pandemic — an increase in the personal savings rate, Minneapolis Fed Pres Neel Kashkari said.  "The U.S. personal savings rate has taken off," Kashkari said.  "Before the crisis, it was around 8%. Now it's around 20%. Now, let me tell you what's going on."  "Those of us who are fortunate enough to still have our jobs, we're saving a lot more money because we're not going to restaurants or movie theaters or vacations," he explained further.  "That actually means we have a lot more resources as a country to support those who've been laid off. And so while historically we would worry about racking up too much debt, we're generating this savings ourselves."  The US economy shrank at a dizzying 33% annual rate in the Apr-Jun qtr — by far the worst quarterly plunge ever — when the viral outbreak shut down businesses, throwing 10s of Ms out of work & sending unemployment surging to 14.7%, the gov said.  The Commerce Dept's estimate of Q2 decline in GDP, the total output of goods & services, marked the sharpest such drop on records dating to 1947.  The previous worst quarterly contraction, a 10% drop, occurred in 1958 during the Eisenhower administration.

Fed president identifies 'one bright spot' in miserable GDP report


Drugmaker Eli Lilly (LLY) said it is beginning a late-stage trial to study whether one of its experimental COVID-19 antibody treatments can prevent the virus’ spread in residents & staff in US nursing homes.  The phase 3 trial will test LY-CoV555, a treatment developed in partnership with Canadian biotech AbCellera, is expected to enroll up to 2400 participants who live or work at a facility that have had a recently diagnosed case of COVID-19.  “COVID-19 has had a devastating impact on nursing home residents,” LLY's chief scientific officer Daniel Skovronsky said.  “We’re working as fast as we can to create medicines that might stop the spread of the virus to these vulnerable individuals.”  LLY is already testing the drug in hospitals to study whether it can work as a treatment in patients who have the disease.  This trial will test whether it works prophylactically. 
It is launching the phase 3 trial in partnership with several long-term care facility networks across the country as well as the National Institute of Allergy & Infectious Diseases (NIAID).  In order to speed the study LLY has created mobile research units including retrofitted recreational vehicles that can be deployed in response to outbreaks of the virus at nursing homes across the US.  The stock rose 2.25.
If you would like to learn more about LLY, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/LLY?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Lilly starts late-stage study of coronavirus drug in nursing homes


Investors are hoping for another stimulus package soon.  Jul economic data is coming this week & it is expected to show the economy is still struggling.  The big jobs report on Fri will likey not show much improvement from last month's numbers.  NAZ & gold keep flying higher to new records while the Dow remains about 10% under its records reached before the virus dragged down the economy.

Dow Jones Industrials








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