Wednesday, September 2, 2020

Mixed markets after mixed data from ADP jobs report

Dow gained 168 (below early highs), advancers over decliners 5-4 & NAZ gave back 37.  The MLP index went higher in the 124s & the REIT index added 2 to 361.  Junk bond funds churned & Treasuries remained in demand.  Oil dropped to the 41s & gold sank 31 to 1947.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil  42.32
  -0.44-1.0%

GC=FGold     1,950.10
-28.80-1.5%






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Private employers added 428K jobs in Aug, indicating the nation's pandemic-ravaged labor market is continuing to slowly recover from the coronavirus crisis, according to the ADP National Employment Report.  It missed the 950K forecast but marked a jump from the upwardly revised 212K jobs added in Jul.  “The August job postings demonstrate a slow recovery,” Ahu Yildirmaz, VP & co-head of the ADP Research Institute, said.  “Job gains are minimal, and businesses across all sizes and sectors have yet to come close to their pre-COVID-19 employment levels."  Aug hiring was spread across most industries, with the biggest gains taking place in leisure & hospitality, with 129K added, & education & health services, with 100K added.  Trade, transportation & utilities increased by 58K, while professional & business services added 66K.  Construction saw an increase of 28K & manufacturing positions edged up by 2K.  "All the growth has been, since the April low, in industries that were directly impacted," Mark Zandi, Moody's chief economist, said.  Large businesses led industries by size with the addition of 298K jobs last month at firms that employ more than 500 workers.  Medium businesses added 79K jobs & small businesses added employees 52K.  While the data is typically a good indicator of what to expect in the more closely watched jobs report from the Labor Dept, the ADP figure has regularly missed the gov;s count since the pandemic began in mid-Mar.  The Labor Dept's jobs report on Fri is predicted to show the US economy added 1.4M jobs last month, down slightly from Jul's gain of 1.8M.  The forecast anticipates unemployment will edge lower to 9.8% from 10.2%.

Private employers fall short of job growth forecast in August, signaling slow recovery

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she spoke to Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin yesterday, but the pair failed to bridge a chasm between their proposals for more coronavirus relief.   “Sadly, this phone call made clear that Democrats and the White House continue to have serious differences understanding the gravity of the situation that America’s working families are facing,” she said after the 36-minute conversation.  Pelosi indicated the sides stand far apart on the price tag for a 5th package designed to alleviate economic & health-care crises fueled by the pandemic.  Dems first proposed more than $3T in spending but later said they would accept a $2.2T bill.  The Trump administration has not gone higher than roughly $1.3T.  The impasse risks dealing further damage to Ms of Americans scrambling to cover rent & food costs as economic restrictions designed to limit Covid-19's spread remain in place.  Failure to pass more fiscal stimulus could also jeopardize the employment gains the US has made in the last three months after record job losses early on in the outbreak.  Multiple financial lifelines passed to buoy the economy earlier this year have lapsed.  A $600 per week enhanced unemployment benefit & a moratorium on evictions from federally backed housing expired in late Jul, while the window to apply for Paycheck Protection Program small business loans closed in Aug.

Pelosi says Dems, White House have ‘serious differences’ over coronavirus aid after Mnuchin call

Exxon Mobil (XOM), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, is assessing possible worldwide job cuts, the said, after announcing a voluntary lay-off program in Australia.  The company has slashed capital spending this year by 30% to around $23B & said in Aug it planned both capital & operating expense cuts to defend its div after reporting losses in the first  & 2nd qtrs.  "We have evaluations underway on a country-by-country basis to assess possible additional efficiencies to right-size our business and make it stronger for the future," XOM said.  The comments mark a shift, after XOM has said Reuters in Jul it had no plans for layoffs due to the pandemic & no percentage targets to reduce its workforce thru this year's employee reviews.  In Australia, XOM said it had completed a review of its current & future project work in the country & was seeking volunteers to quit the company.  "This program will ensure the company manages through these unprecedented market conditions," it added.  The company is looking to sell its 50% stake in the Bass Strait oil & gas joint venture in southeastern Australia, which is estimated could fetch up to $3B. The stock fell 35¢.
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Exxon weighs global job cuts after unveiling Australian lay-off

The jobs report was less encouraging than it could have been.  At the same time, market moves with light trading during this semi-holiday period generally does not mean a lot.  The Dow, has been a laggard index during the recent rally in stocks, but is getting closer to setting a new record.

Dow Jones Industrials








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