Dow fell 72, decliners over advancers 5-2 & NAZ went up 58. The MLP index was flattish in the 118s & the REIT index dropped 6+ to 359. Junk bond funds hardly budged & Treasuries were bid higher. Oil went over 40 & gold sank 34 to 1894.
AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)
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The IMF turned slightly more positive on the global economy for this year, but warned of a “long, uneven and uncertain” recovery. The global economy is now projected to contract by 4.4% in 2020 — an upward revision from an estimate of -4.9% made in Jun. The IMF's projection assumes that social distancing due to the coronavirus pandemic will continue into 2021 & that local transmission will fall everywhere by the end of 2022. “We are projecting a somewhat less severe though still deep recession in 2020, relative to our June forecast,” the IMF's Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said in the latest World Economic Outlook. She added that the revision was driven by better-than-expected growth in advanced economies & China during the 2nd qtr & signs of a more rapid recovery in the 3rd qtr. However, it warned that the coronavirus crisis is far from over.. The IMF projected “only limited progress” going forward and cut its GDP growth expectations for next year to 5.2%, from an estimate of 5.4% made in Jun. “While the global economy is coming back, the ascent will likely be long, uneven, and uncertain,” Gopinath sajd, while adding that “prospects have worsened significantly in some emerging market and developing economies.” Emerging market & developing economies are seen contracting by 3.3% this year, but in places like India, GDP is seen falling by more than 10%. Meanwhile, the US economy is set to fall by 4.3% this year, but the economic contractions in the UK, France, Italy & Spain are down around 10%. The recovery “is not assured while the pandemic continues to spread,” the IMF added in its latest economic analysis.
IMF revises its global GDP forecast higher, warns economy is ‘prone to setbacks’
JP Morgan (JPM), a Dow stock, posted earnings that beat estimates for the top & bottom lines. The
bank posted Q3 EOS of $2.92,
exceeding the $2.23 estimate. The firm generated revenue of $29.9B, about $1.5B more than what was expected, fueled in part by
better-than-projected trading results. The key question for the
qtr: Whether American banks would show that they're largely done
setting aside money for loan defaults tied to the pandemic.
That appears to be the case at JPM, the biggest US bank by
assets, which had a $611M provision for credit costs in the
period, compared with $10.5B in the previous qtr. Rather
than building loan-loss reserves, as it had done aggressively in H1, JPM reduced them by $569M
in the qtr, citing a runoff in its mortgage portfolio. The bank had
added more than $15B to loan loss reserves in the first 2
qrs of 2020. CEO Jamie Dimon noted that the total size of the bank's reserves for loan losses still
rounded to $34B, roughly the same as the previous qtr. In the
earnings release, he cited the need to maintain reserves “given
significant economic uncertainty and a broad range of potential
outcomes” tied to the coronavirus pandemic. CFO Jennifer Piepszak said that the bank's
“base case” for the US economy improved from the previous qtr.
Now, instead of assuming that unemployment will hit a nearly 11% average
in Q4, the bank expects a 9.5% rate. The firm also
expected a smaller contraction in GDP over the next 3 qtrs than
it had previously.
The stock fell 1.87.
If you would like to learn more about JPM, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/JPM?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
JPMorgan beats analysts’ profit estimates as the bank sets aside less for loan losses
Citigroup (C) reported better-than-expected results for Q3, as credit costs from the pandemic stabilized. EPS was $1.40 vs 93¢ expected & revenue of $17.3B topped the $17.2B expected. It
was not immediately clear whether those results were directly
comparable to the estimates because Citi said that earnings
figure includes a $400M civil penalty. However, if that penalty
is excluded, the earnings topped estimates by an even
greater amount. “We continue to navigate the effects of the
COVID-19 pandemic extremely well,” CEO Michael Corbat said. “Credit costs have stabilized; deposits continued to
increase.” Citi reported that net credit losses declined to $1.9B in Q3 from $2.2B in previous 3-month period. The
company's overall cost of credit also dropped to $2.26B from $7.9B on a qtr-over-qtr basis.
The stock dropped 1.91.
If you would like to learn more about Citi click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/C?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
Citigroup earnings top Street estimates as credit costs from the pandemic stabilize
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