Dow went up 237 to a new record, advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ advanced 131 (a record & nearing 14K). The MLP index added 2+ to 152 & the REIT index went up 1 to the 385s. Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were a tad lower. Oil gained 1 to almost 58 & gold shot up 21 to 1854 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
Without a fresh round of COVID-19 aid from the federal gov, about a 3rd of the nation's pandemic-stricken small businesses are warning they won't be able to survive. That's according to a new report published by the Federal Reserve, which found that sales for 88% of small businesses have not yet returned to pre-crisis levels. About one in 3 -- roughly 30% -- of businesses said they expected they could not stay afloat without further assistance from the gov, according to the report from the central bank's 12 regional offices. The Small Business Credit Survey was conducted in Sep & Oct, before Congress passed the latest $900B coronavirus relief package & relaunched the Paycheck Protection Program. But the report, based on responses from close to 10K businesses with fewer than 500 employees, underscores the extent of the pain inflicted on small businesses by the pandemic & lockdown measures implemented to curb the spread of the virus. “At the time our survey was fielded, six months into the pandemic, closures, layoffs, depressed revenue, and uncertainty continued to plague small businesses across the country,” the report said. “Small business debt mounted and business owners plowed their personal savings into their firms to keep them afloat.” At the time, more than 90% of small businesses said they had applied for aid, including 83% who sought a forgivable loan thru the Paycheck Protection Program. About ¾ (77%) said they received the aid they wanted. But the report also highlighted the uneven toll of the pandemic on minority-owned businesses. While 57% of businesses said their financial situation was "fair" or "poor" in the fall, that figured increased to 77% for Black-owned firms & 66% for Latino-owned firms. Congress established the $670B Paycheck Protection Program last year with the passage of the CARES Act at the end of Mar. Lawmakers authorized another $284B in Dec to provide a 2nd round of forgivable loans to small businesses as part of its more comprehensive $900B COVID relief plan.
New report highlights devastating toll of pandemic on small businesses
Dr Scott Gottlieb said he expects Covid vaccine eligibility in the US to be expanded significantly by Apr, suggesting the move will be necessary due to a lack of Americans wanting to receive the shots. “I think we’re going to run out of demand sooner than we think. I suspect that in some point in March and certainly by the end of March, we’re going to have to make this generally available,” Gottlieb added. “That doesn’t mean everyone can go and get a vaccine on April 1, but I think everyone is going to be able to go online and get an appointment sooner than we think.” Demand has typically outpaced supply of available doses since the Food & Drug Administration issued emergency use authorization for Pfizer's (PFE) & Morderna's (MRNA)'s 2-dose Covid vaccines in Dec. Priority was initially given to higher-risk individuals, such as frontline health-care workers and nursing home residents. It's now been expanded in some states to include people who are 65 years old and up, as well as professions such as teachers & law enforcement. The Biden administration also is expected to begin sending vaccine doses directly to retail pharmacies across the US in the coming days. Gottlieb said he believes supply constraints will remain throughout Feb that justify having more narrow eligibility criteria. “But at some point in March, states are going to have to make decisions about how to open this up more widely,” predicted Gottlieb. “If we continue to ration it based on more and more narrow slices of the population, it’s going to get harder to administer, so I think we’re just going to have to open this up to general availability, which is good news,” he added. The vaccine rollout in the US started slower than expected, but the pace has improved in recent weeks. As of yesterday, there have been 41.2M total doses administered, according to the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention. Just over 9.1M people have received both shots of the 2-dose vaccines, CDC data shows.
Dr. Gottlieb expects Covid vaccine appointments to be widely available by April
Gold futures rose, extending their gains to a 2nd session, as prices continued to rebound from a recent drop to a 2-month low. Gold for Apr rose $21 (1.2%) to settle at $1834 an ounce. Prices climbed on Fri, after dropping more than 2% Thurs to its lowest finish since late Nov. The yellow metal found support Fri, trimming a weekly loss after a weaker-than-expected jobs report halted a $ rally. The weak jobs report was seen adding to momentum for a larger round of aid spending. The push for additional spending has sparked a debate over the potential for the measures to overheat the economy & spark inflation.
Gold ends higher a second session, rebounding from a recent 2-month low
The global case tally of confirmed cases of the coronavirus-borne illness COVID-19 climbed above 106M, with the US accounting for more than 27M of that total, even as cases continue to decline & the post-holiday surge abates. The US added 88K new cases yesterda & at least 1301 people died, although those numbers may be underreported given reduced staffing at hospitals on weekends. The US has averaged 118K new cases a day in the past week, down 31% from the average 2 weeks ago. Hospitalizations are also steadily declining. There were 81K COVID-19 patients in US hospitals yesterday, down from 84K a day earlier. The number has now declined for 24 straight days & stands at its lowest level since Nov.
U.S. COVID case tally tops 27 million, while South Africa abandons AstraZeneca vaccine
Brent crude prices settled above $60 a barrel for the first time in over a year, boosted by pandemic-recovery optimism & expectations for the passage of the latest economic stimulus package. Prices also found support after Pres Biden pushed back against immediately lifting sanctions on Iran. Apr Brent crude, the global benchmark, climbed $1.22 (2.1%) to settle at $60.56 a barrel after trading as high as $60.63. Prices based on front month tallied a 7th straight session climb & logged the highest finish in over a year. Prices fell last year as concerns over COVID-19 & weak demand began to hit the oil market. Expectations for increasing demand & production restraints by major oil producers were key to driving oil prices higher last week. Brent tallied a weekly climb of 7.8%. West Texas Intermediate crude for Mar rose $1.12 (2%) to settle at $57.97 a barrel, also the highest in over ayear. Front-month benchmark prices gained 8.9% last week. Yesterday, meanwhile, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei pushed for the US to lift sanctions on his country. But Biden said that Iran must stop enriching uranium first & stick to its nuclear deal agreements before sanctions are lifted. Former Pres Trump pulled the Us out of the key nuclear deal in 2018 & reimposed Iran sanctions.
Brent oil ends above $60 a barrel for the first time in over a year
Today the popular stock averages rose to new records. Investors were encouraged by improvement in the dismal data on the fight with coronavirus & rising prices for oil which is partially due to optimism over economies rebounding around the world.
Dow Jones Industrials
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