Friday, October 28, 2022

Markets skyrocket as Apple boom outweighs Amazon miss

Dow shot up 828 (session highs), advancers over decliners a relatively muted 3-1 & NAZ jumped 309.  The MLP index stayed in the 225s & the REIT index jumped 8+ to the 371s.  Junk bond funds continued to be in demand & Treasuries were sold, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury over 4%.  Oil was off 1+ to finish below 88 & gold sank 18 to 1646 (more on both below).  

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Pres Biden said yesterday that America isn't experiencing "record inflation anymore" amid an annualized 8.2% spike in prices.  "You've referred to the midterm election as a choice, rather than a referendum. Given record inflation, why should voters chose Democrats?" Biden was asked.  "Because it's not record inflation anymore. I'm bringing it down. Look what we inherited. I inherited 6.5% unemployment, it's down to 3.5%. We lost hundreds of thousands of manufacturing jobs. We've created over 700,000 manufacturing jobs. Things are moving," Biden said.  "As that [GDP] report showed, you have people who are now in a position where the combination of pay raises and job security, they're now better off, even with inflation than they were before it."  When Biden took office in Jan 2021, the consumer price index, which measures prices of everyday items such as gasoline, groceries & rents, was climbing at a 1.4% annualized basis.  In Sep, prices climbed by 8.2% on an annual basis.  When compared to last year, core prices, which exclude food & energy, rose at by 6.6%, the fastest rate since 1982.  During the speech, Biden also claimed that the price of gasoline was "over five dollars" when he took office, despite the actual average price of regular gasoline being $2.39.  "The most common price of gas in America is $3.39, down from over five dollars when I took office," Biden added. "We need to keep making that progress by having energy companies bring down the cost of a gallon of gas that reflects the cost of paying for a barrel of oil."  The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in the week ending Jan 25, 2021, after Biden took office was $2.39, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.  The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline didn't hit $5 until Jun 2022, well over a year after Biden took office.

CREDIT CHECK: As families struggle to put food on the table, Biden shrugs off inflation

Amazon (AMZN) shares plunged, a day after the company projected sales in the holiday qtr would be far below expectations.  Some losses were pared back when the stock was off about 50% from its highs, resulting in about a $940B hit to its value.  The company said yesterday that revenue would be $140-148B in the 3-month period ending the year, which was far below consensus estimates of $155B.  Revenue in the 3rd qtr came in at $127B, up 15% year over year but slightly softer than the expected $127B.  The cloud business reported a 27.5% revenue growth rate for the qtr, which is the slowest growth since 2014, when the company began breaking out AWS results.  The stock closed down 7+ (7%).
If you would like to learn more about AMZN
, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/AMZN?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Amazon shares fall 9% to lowest since April 2020 on weak forecast

Apple (AAPL), a Dow stock & NAZ stock, rose after reporting Sep qtr earnings that modestly beat expectations on revenue & profit & showed global demand for its premium hardware remains high.  Although AAPL signaled some slowing growth in the current qtr & weakness in its profitable services business, analysts were generally positive about the company’s results.  Sales grew by 8% during the Sep qtr, keeping its Covid pandemic quarterly growth streak alive.  The Mac business grew 25% even as PC sales from other brands from around the world fell.  And the company signaled that demand for premium computers & phones remains strong.  The stock rose 10+ (8%).
If you would like to learn more about AAPL
, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/AAPL?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Apple stock surges, on pace for its best day since 2020

Oil futures settled lower as COVID-19 restrictions in China fed worries about energy demand, but US prices still marked their first gain in 3 weeks.  Oil markets remain volatile as China ramps up COVID restrictions, some US oil giants signal modest commitments to boost production & the global economic outlook continues to dim.  US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for Dec fell $1.18 (1.3%) to settle at $87.90 a barrel.  For the week, prices climbed about 3.4%.

Oil prices end lower for the session, higher for the week

Gold prices declined to notch back-to-back session losses, giving up gains from earlier this week that were driven by expectations for a down shift in the pace of Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes after next week's meeting.  Gold for Dec fell $20 (1.3%) to settle at $1644 per ounce.  Prices based on the most-active contract ended 0.7% lower for the week, after posting a gain of nearly 0.5% last week.  Hopes that the Federal Reserve will follow thru with smaller interest-rate hikes after its Nov policy meeting helped provide support to prices of gold, but traders are still unsure whether peak hawkishness has truly passed.  Now, the ball is in the Fed’s court & the fate of precious metals prices will largely depend on the central bank.  Yesterday, the ECB doubled its benchmark rate, reminding investors that while the trajectory of the interest rate curve may have eased off, it will continue to climb for a few months yet.  The ICE US Dollar Index, a gauge of the buck's strength against a basket of rivals, was up by 0.3% at 110.904, while 10-year Treasury year was higher as US data showed a key gauge of inflation rose by 0.3% in Sep.

Gold prices decline to end lower for the week

The stock market had another impressive day, but not backed by exciting news.  And the advance-decline ratio was unimpressive.  Mixed news from AMZN & AAPL was difficult to understand.  Next week, when the Fed speaks everybody will listen.  In the last 2 weeks the Dow was up a spectacular 3700 with hardly a blip along on the way.  Meanwhile the inverted yield curve, which signals a recession coming, is lurking in the background.

Dow Jones Industrials








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