Monday, December 5, 2022

Markets fall on fears that Fed tightening will lead to a recession

Dow dropped 405, decliners over advancers 3-1 & NAZ  lost 177.  Sorry other data is not available, but changes are not significant.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

 

 

 




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The federal gov is within spitting distance of the congressionally mandated limit on how much money it can borrow.  And it will soon be forced to undertake a series of money managing techniques to avoid exceeding the debt ceiling until Congress raises it.  Under federal law passed in late 2021, the most the federal gov can borrow is $31.4T.  Total national debt has already ventured slightly above that level, but a small portion of the debt is exempt from the debt ceiling – technically, the unamortized discount on Treasury bills.  As of last week, total debt subject to the debt limit got close to the limit.  That leaves the gov very close to its borrowing limit at a time when congressional Dems are considering a wave of new spending before they give up control of the House to Reps in Jan.  In the past, the government has been able to last for months once it hit the debt ceiling as it waited for Congress to either raise the ceiling or suspend it entirely, a move that would allow the gov to borrow whatever it needs.  But hitting the debt ceiling does send a warning that Congress will need to act in the near future.  And approving an extension this time around could prove to be more politically difficult now that Reps will control the House in the next Congress.  Dems would prefer to raise the debt ceiling in the lame-duck session of Congress, since they worry Reps will have more leverage to press for spending cuts as part of a debt ceiling deal once the GOP takes over the House in Jan.  But last week, outgoing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi indicated a debt ceiling increase might have to wait.  "I hope that we could do the debt ceiling this year, but we are striving to do it in a bipartisan way," she said.

Debt ceiling bomb nears as government spending balloons

Ministers from OPEC+ agreed during a Sun meeting to stick to its policy of scaled-back oil production amid a slowing economy & a G7-imposed cap on Russian oil.  The decision comes after OPEC+ including Russia, announced in early Oct it would be cutting output to 2M barrels per day (bpd), or about 2% of world demand.  The move angered America, with the Biden administration accusing OPEC+’s leader, Saudi Arabia, of effectively siding with Russia in its war against Ukraine.  OPEC+ ministers denied that the move was politically motivated, saying the cut was made in response to a weaker economic outlook. In the weeks since, oil prices have declined amid slower growth, particularly in China,& higher interest rates.  The group’s key ministers will meet on Feb 1, 2023, for a monitoring committee.  A full meeting is scheduled for early Jun.  Today's announcement comes after the EU on Fri reached a deal to cap Russian maritime oil at $60 a barrel in an attempt to keep global oil prices down.  Under the agreement, Western companies will not be able to insure, finance or ship Russian oil if it is sold for less than $60 a barrel.  The Kremlin rejected the EU’s plan & warned Europe that it will have to live without Russian oil."  "Moscow has already made it clear that it will NOT supply oil to those countries who support anti-market price cap," Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia's permanent representative to Intl Organizations in Vienna said.

OPEC+ makes decision on oil production as slowing economy comes into play

VF Corp (VFC), a Dividend Aristocrat, owner of The North Face & Timberland lowered its revenue & earnings expectations for the 2nd ½ of its fiscal year & said its CEO is retiring.  Steve Rendle is stepping down from his post after almost 6 years, effective immediately, the company said.  Benno Dorer, who sits on the company's board, will serve as interim CEO while the company searches for Rendle's permanent replacement.  Richard Carucci will serve as interim chairman of the board.  VFC now expects full-year revenue to increase by 3-4% over the prior year, down from previously projected growth of 5-6%.  It estimates its full-year EPS to come in at $2.00-2.20, down from previous guidance of $2.40-2.50, announced a few weeks ago.  VFC reported full-year earnings of $3.18 per share last year.  This is the 2nd time in less than 2 months that VFC. has slashed its guidance & it attributed its lowered financial outlook to "weaker than anticipated consumer demand," especially in its North American market, which has caused fewer sales & more order cancellations.  It also cited the overall tightening of consumer spending as a result of inflation & Covid-related disruption in China.  Those challenges may take a toll on short-term profitability, the company said.  The stock fell 2.51.
If you would like to learn more about VFC
, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/VFCa_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

VF Corp. lowers full-year guidance, announces CEO is retiring

Stocks are drifting lower while waiting for more economic data.  As shown below in the chart, Dow has been trending sideways for over a week.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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