Thursday, April 13, 2023

Markets rally on cooling inflation while waiting for bank earnings

Dow shot up 383 (closing near session highs), advancers over decliners about 3-1 & NAZ advanced 236.  The MLP index inched higher in the 226s & the REIT index was off 1+ to 370.  Junk bond funds continued to be in demand & Treasuries had selling, bringing higher yields.  Oil was off 1 to the 82s & gold surged, settling up 29 to close at 2054 (more on both below).

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The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, evidence the labor market is beginning to soften in the face of higher borrowing costs.  Figures released from by from the Labor Dept show initial claims for last week rose by 11K to 239K.  That is above the 2019 pre-pandemic average of 218K claims.  Continuing claims, filed by Americans who are consecutively receiving unemployment benefits, fell slightly to 1.8M, a decrease of 13K from the previous week.  The labor market has remained historically tight over the past year, but there are growing signs of a slowdown.  The economy added just 236K jobs in Mar, the lowest monthly gain since Dec 2020.  A separate report released last week showed there were about 9.9M job openings in Feb, the first time since May 2021 that the number of available jobs dipped below 10M  There has also been a wave of notable layoffs over the past few month & the list grows longer by the day.  Central bank officials have made it clear that they expect unemployment to climb as a result of higher rates, which could force consumers & businesses to pull back on spending.  Job losses are "very likely," Fed Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers earlier in Mar.  Projections from the central bank's Mar meeting show that officials expect unemployment to rise to 4.6% by the end of next year, up from the current rate of 3.5%.  That could mean more than 1M Americans lose their jobs between now & the end of 2023.

Jobless claims unexpectedly climb even more as layoffs grow

Bookings for the summer are at their highest level in Delta Air Lines (DAL) history, the company announced.  CEO Glen Hauenstein said, "With record advance bookings for the summer, we expect June quarter revenue to be 15% to 17% higher on capacity growth of 17% year over year."  For the qtr ended Mar 31, advance cash bookings for travelers was nearly 20% higher than 2019, while small & medium business bookings fully recovered compared to 2019 levels.  Amid the rise in bookings, the air carrier also reported revenue of $12.7B.  The forecast expected $12.8B.  Operating income reached $546M with an operating margin of 4.6%, while pre-tax income was $217.  The company said it had a loss of 57¢ per share.  EPS, adjusted for one-time gains & costs, was 25¢.  The results did not meet expectations for EPS of 29¢.  CEO Ed Bastian said the airline generated nearly $5B of operating profit over the last 12 months.  "We expect to deliver record revenue, and an adjusted operating margin of 14% to 16% with earnings per share of $2 to $2.25," he added. "With solid March quarter profitability and a strong outlook for the June quarter, we are confident in our full-year guidance for revenue growth of 15% to 20% year over year, earnings of $5 to $6 per share and free cash flow of over $2 billion."  The stock fell 41¢.
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Delta discloses record advance summer bookings

The EU will launch an 11th wave of sanctions on Russia & seek to crack down on efforts to evade economic penalties introduced in the wake of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a top EU official said.  “Europe has rolled out 10 packages of sanctions. We will have another package,” Mairead McGuinness, EU commissioner for financial stability, financial services & capital markets union, said at the IMF's spring meeting in DC.  EU countries have been in talks about drawing up a fresh round of sanctions against Russia in recent weeks & McGuinness confirmed an 11th package of measures is on its way.  “Our information is that the sanctions are working, and we will be doing more but we need to look at full implementation,” McGuinness said.  “What Russia is being deprived of is both the finance and the technologies to reinvent their war machine, and they are having problems on the battlefield.”   “We have to make sure that they don’t find ways around our sanctions, and I make the point repeatedly that the deeper our sanctions the more impactful they are, the more Russia will look for those ways whether it’s other countries or different bank accounts to circumvent.”  McGuinness said that as well as coming up with further sanctions on Moscow, Brussels would also seek to ensure sanctions are implemented “effectively” so that it becomes harder for individuals & entities to circumvent them.  “We have to make sure they don’t find ways around our sanctions,” McGuinness added.  “I make the point repeatedly that the more deeper our sanctions, the more impactful they are.”  She continued, “Don’t underestimate the efforts that Russia will make with its pals globally to get around our sanctions — they’re affecting the Russian economy, they’re affecting the Russian war machine.” 

EU will issue fresh wave of sanctions to stop Russia reinventing their war machine, official says

Gold surged to the highest in nearly 3 years as the $ continued to lose ground on expectations the Federal Reserve could begin easing interest rates by year end.  Gold for Jun closed up $30 to settle at $2053 per ounce, the highest since Aug 2020.  The rise comes after US inflation fell more than expected in Mar, to 5%, reviving hopes the Federal Reserve will be able to lower interest rates before the end of the year, sending investors away from treasuries & the $.  Gold is bid on a weaker $ & the prospect of lower rates is leaving gold as the undisputed financial safe haven versus interest bearing instruments.  The $ fell for a 3rd-straight day early, with the ICE dollar index last seen down 0.55 points to 100.95, the lowest in a year. 

Gold Rises to a Near Three-Year High as the Dollar Falls

US crude-oil futures fell from a 5-month-high, ending 1.3% lower at $82.16 a barrel, while the global benchmark Brent declined 1.4% to close at $86.09.   It looks like the rally in crude prices has finally hit a wall. This was a busy week for energy traders with the EIA short-term energy outlook, Colombia's global energy summit, the OPEC monthly report & nationwide strikes impacting French oil product shipments.  WTI crude couldn't quite rally above the $83.45 level & traders decided that might be it for now.

WTI Oil Retreats from 5-Month-High

Dow began the day at even.  Then buyers kept coming all day with a little selling in the last hour of trading.  The rally took Dow over 34K.  Extending this rise will be dependent on bank earnings which will be coming shortly.

Dow Jones Industrials 






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