Dow pulled back 48, advancers over decliners better than 3-2 & NAZ declined 60. The MLP index was up another 1+ to the 251s & the REIT index added 1+ to the 343s. Junk bond funds were little changed & Treasuries saw heavy selling, driving yields higher (more below). Oil rebounded, going above 87 again & gold crawled up 1 to 1935.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Americans picked up their retail spending in Sep, even as they
confronted an uptick in inflation, high interest rates and fears over an
economic recession. Retail sales,
a measure of how much consumers spent on a number of everyday goods
including cars, food & gasoline, rose 0.7% in Sep, the Commerce
Dept said. That is above the 0.3% increase projected & just below the revised 0.8% gain recorded in
Aug. Excluding the more volatile measurements of gasoline & autos, sales climbed 0.6% last month. The
Sep advance is not adjusted for inflation, meaning that consumers
may be spending the same but getting less bang for their buck. Consumers spent more at grocery stores, gas stations, health &
personal stores and restaurants & bars. They also continued to open
their wallets when online shopping,
with spending at non-store retailers jumping 1.1% from the previous
month & at miscellaneous store retailers, which surged 3% over the
course of the month. "Consumer spending shows little sign of
flagging, especially when purchases increased on everything from durable
goods, such as autos, to the least durable goods, food and drink at
bars and restaurants," said Robert Frick, corp economist at Navy
Federal Credit Union. Sales rose in 8 of 13 retail categories last month. Still, Americans pulled back on spending on other items like electronics & appliances, garden supplies & clothing. A solid job market & big wage increases have helped to buoy consumer spending in recent
months, despite high inflation. However, many economists expect
consumers to grow more cautious in the coming months as student loan
payments resume & high interest rates continue to work their way
thru the economy. On top of that, more Americans are relying on their
credit cards to cover necessities.
Americans are spending more than expected as inflation continues to rise
Treasury yields rose as investors mulled over the outlook for interest rates & the economy following stronger-than-expected economic data. The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped more than 9 basis points to 4.805%, while the 2-year Treasury yield rose nearly 6 basis points to 5.152%. Yields & prices move in opposite directions & 1 basis point equals 0.01%. The move in yields came as retail sales figures for Sep came in well above expectations. The data showed a 0.7% increase for the month, topping the 0.3% estimate. Investors also continued to weigh the outlook for the economy & Fed rate-hiking campaign. Several policymakers have hinted in recent week that they do not believe rates need to go any higher, despite the central bank saying it expects one further rate hike this year. Philadelphia Fed Pres Patrick Harker said last week that economic data suggested to him that no further rate hikes are necessary & keeping them at their current level would allow their impact to fully unfold. Elsewhere, investors continued to monitor the Israel-Hamas war ahead of Pres Biden's visit to Israel tomorrow & monitored corp earnings reports, including from major banks.
10-year Treasury yield tops 4.80% after hot retail sales data
Builder confidence in the market for single-family homes dropped to the lowest level since Jan as builders contend with a market dominated by high mortgage rates and costs for financing. The monthly National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (NAHB) dropped 4 points to 40 in Oct & Sep's read was revised down one point. Anything below 50 is considered negative. This marks the 3rd straight monthly decline in builder confidence. Builders point squarely to mortgage rates, which are now at a 23-year high. The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage has remained over 7% for 2 months & affordability has fallen to near record lows. “Builders have reported lower levels of buyer traffic, as some buyers, particularly younger ones, are priced out of the market because of higher interest rates,” said Alicia Huey, NAHB's chair. “Higher rates are also increasing the cost and availability of builder development and construction loans, which harms supply and contributes to lower housing affordability.” Of the index's 3 components, current sales conditions fell 4 points to 46, sales expectations in the next 6 months dropped 5 points to 44 & buyer traffic dropped 4 points to 26. In order to get buyers in the door, builders are using more incentives again. This includes buying down mortgage interest rates. About 62% of builders reported offering sales incentives of all forms in Oct, up from 59% in Sep & tied with the previous high for this cycle set in Dec 2022. In addition, 32% of builders said they cut home prices. That is unchanged from the previous month but still the highest rate since Dec (35%). The average price discount is steady at 6%. “The housing affordability crisis can only be solved by adding additional attainable, affordable supply,” said Robert Dietz, NAHB's chief economist. “Boosting housing production would help reduce the shelter inflation component that was responsible for more than half of the overall Consumer Price Index increase in September and aid the Fed’s mission to bring inflation back down to 2%. However, uncertainty regarding monetary policy is contributing to affordability challenges in the market.”
Homebuilder sentiment drops to 10-month low, as mortgage rates soar
Dow Jones Industrials
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