Tuesday, December 5, 2023

Markets slid lower after the job openings report

Dow was off 138, advancers over declines 2-1 & NAZ went up 33.  The MLP index fell 2+ to the 257s & the REIT index pulled back 2+ to the 374s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries had heavy buying, lowering yields substantially.  Oil crawled higher in the 73s & gold fell another 8 to 2033.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Job openings tumbled in Oct to their lowest in 2½ years, a sign that the historically tight labor market could be loosening.  Employment openings totaled 8.7M for the month, a decline of 617K (6.6%) the Labor Dept reported.  The number was well below the 9.4M estimate & the lowest since Mar 2021.  The decline in vacancies brought the ratio of openings to available workers down to 1.3 to 1, a level that only a few months ago was around 2 to 1.  Federal Reserve policymakers watch the report, known as the Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), closely for signs of labor slack.  The Fed has boosted interest rates dramatically since Mar 2022 in an effort to slow the labor market & cool inflation, & is contemplating its next policy move.  While job openings fell dramatically, total hires only nudged lower while layoffs & separations were modestly higher.  Quits, which are seen as a measure of worker confidence in the ability to change jobs & find another one easily, also were little changed.  Declines in job openings were widespread by industry.  The biggest sector decline was education & health services (-238K), followed by financial activities (-217K), leisure & hospitality (-136K) & retail (-102K).

Job openings slide to 8.7 million in October, well below estimate, to lowest level since March 2021

An Israel Defense Forces (IDF) commander said that Israel's military is currently “in the most intense day since the beginning of the ground operation -- in terms of terrorists killed, the number of firefights, and the use of firepower from the land and air.”  Maj Gen Yaron Finkelman, who leads the Southern Command, said that “We are in the heart of Jabalya, in the heart of Shuja'iyya, & now also in the heart of Khan Younis.”  “We intend to continue to strike and secure our accomplishments,” he added.  The IDF also said since the end of a cease-fire deal between Israel & Hamas last week, “Israeli Air Force aircraft have carried out two rounds of strikes involving dozens of aircraft from all the combat squadrons.”  “Hundreds of munitions were utilized during strikes on tunnels, operational shafts, and anti-tank missile launch positions in order to support the movement of IDF infantry soldiers on the ground,” it added.

IDF says it's in ‘most intense day since the beginning of the ground operation’ in Gaza

The underlying inflation pressures hitting US consumers eased in Oct compared to Sep, according to a new report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.  The New York Fed said its multivariate core trend (MCT) inflation reading came in at 2.6% in Oct, down slightly from Sep's 2.88% reading.  The bank said the higher level of the MCT compared to its pre-pandemic average "is in large part due to the sector-specific trends in housing and services ex-housing."  The New York Fed's MCT index aims to measure the persistence of inflation & how broadly inflationary pressures on consumer prices are changing.  The MCT index peaked at 5.44% in Jun 2022, & the Oct reading closely matched the 6-month trend of the personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. which stood at a 2.5% rise in Oct.  The report comes as central bank officials weigh economic data ahead of the Fed's final policy meeting of the year, which is set to occur next week on Dec 12-13 & could bring another interest rate hike or a continued pause.  Federal Reserve officials have sought a "soft landing" for the US economy since the current inflationary cycle accelerated dramatically in 2022, peaking at a 40-year high of 9.1% in Jun 2022 before gradually declining to 3.2% in Oct 2023, which remains well above the Fed's 2% target.  To tamp down inflation, the Fed aggressively raised interest rates thru the benchmark federal funds rate 11 times in 16 months, going from near zero to above 5%, which is the fastest monetary tightening the Fed has undertaken since the 1980s.  Raising interest rates tends to slow economic activity & dampen the labor market, although both have avoided significant declines despite the rate hikes to date.  Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Fri that the economy is "better balanced" & that "we are getting what we want" regarding the economy's trajectory.  He added, "While the lower inflation readings of the past few months are welcome, that progress must continue if we are to reach our 2% objective."

Underlying inflation pressures eased in October, NY Fed says

The report above on the MCT index above is helping to reduce inflation although that is not attracting buyers today.

Dow Jones Industrials 

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