Dow
fell 23, advancers over decliners better than 2-1 & NAZ rose 159.
The MLP index was up 1+ to the 292s & the REIT index was steady in
the 376s. Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries continued in
demand which reduced yields. Oil finished up about 1 to the 83s &
gold roared ahead 26 to 2369.
Dow Jones Industrials
Federal Reserve officials at their Jun meeting indicated that inflation is moving in the right direction but not quickly enough for them to lower interest rates, minutes showed. “Participants affirmed that additional favorable data were required to give them greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent,” the meeting summary said. Though the minutes reflected disagreement from the 19 central bankers who took part in the discussion, with some even indicating a penchant toward raising rates if necessary, the meeting concluded with Federal Open Market Committee voters holding rates in place. The Fed targets 2% annual inflation, a level it has been above since early in 2021. Officials at the meeting said data has improved lately, though they are want more evidence that it will continue. Meeting participants “emphasized that they did not expect that it would be appropriate to lower the target range for the federal funds rate until additional information had emerged to give them greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective.” At the meeting, policymakers also provided an update on economic projections & monetary policy over the next several years. The FOMC “dot plot” showed 1 qtr percentage point cut by the end of 2024, down from the 3 indicated following the last update in Mar. Even though the dot plot indicated 1 cut this year, futures markets continue to price in 2, starting in Sep. Also, the committee largely left its economic projections intact, though they lowered their inflation expectations for this year.
Fed says it’s not ready to cut rates until ‘greater confidence’ inflation is moving to 2% goal
Vice President Kamala Harris' allies are privately discussing what her candidacy would look like if Pres Biden dropped out of the race for the White House & how they could help her, following Biden's disastrous debate performance. These conversations have been held over phone calls & text messages between some people who raised money for the VP during her failed 2020 Dem primary campaign against Biden & other contenders, leakers said. Key issues include whether Harris would control the massive Biden-Harris campaign war chest managed by Biden's team if the pres were to drop out of the race. Harris has emerged as an early favorite to replace the pres at the top of the ticket, but this does not guarantee that the Dem National Convention in Chicago will not feature more contenders & a potentially messy battle for the nomination. Harris would likely have the keys to most of the money, according to Biden campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez, who acknowledged the rules during a recent call with party donors. Biden's campaign began Jun with $91M in cash on hand, according to Federal Election Commission records. The entire political operation, which includes Biden's joint fundraising committees, entered Jul with $240M on hand, according to the campaign.
Vice President Kamala Harris’ past donors privately strategize in case Biden drops out
Mortgage rates increased this week, approaching nearly 7% again as rates remain stubbornly high & continue to hinder the housing market. Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed that the average rate on the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage climbed to 6.95% this week from 6.86% last week. The average rate on a 30-year loan was 6.81% a year ago. The average rate on the 15-year fixed mortgage also rose, jumping to 6.25% from 6.16% last week. One year ago, the rate on the 15-year fixed note averaged 6.24%.
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