Dow rose 65, advancers over decliners 4-3 & NAZ dropped 152. The MLP index added 1 to the 284s & the REIT index stayed near 425. Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries were a tad lower so that yields hardly budged. Oil remained higher, up 2+ to the 77s on growing MidEast worries, & gold was added 6 to 2552 (more on both below).
Dow Jones Industrials
Apple announces iPhone event for Monday, Sept. 9
An uptick in sausage demand can offer the latest
sign of consumers tightening their belts as they continue grappling with
high prices. There's been “modest growth” in the dinner sausage category for 1 producer, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve's Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. This underscores the trends of shoppers opting for
cheaper products & pulling back spending all together as cumulative
inflation bites into purchasing power. “This
category tends to grow when the economy weakens,” the respondent said,
according to edited comments included in the Dallas Fed's report. That’s
because “sausage is a good protein substitute for higher-priced
proteins and can ‘stretch’ consumers’ food budgets.” This anecdote pointed out by eagle-eyed Bespoke Investment Group on X comes as grocery prices remain top of mind for consumers. While the rate of annualized inflation
has fallen closer to levels deemed healthy by economic policymakers,
the collective increase in prices compared with just a few years ago has
left everyday Americans feeling sour about the state of the national economy. Additionally, it bolsters 2 themes emerging as hallmarks of today's post-pandemic economy. A
growing chorus of corp execs, including those leading some of
the largest restaurant chains, have warned that the consumer is starting to slowdown. In particular, they've pointed to stress on lower-income tax brackets as they attempt to make their dollars go further. The
shift to sausage also highlights an action experts call the “trade
down.” Carefree customers may select protein that's typically more
expensive like steak or chicken. On the other hand, price-conscious
shoppers will hunt for sausage or other lower-cost alternatives. Other
food manufacturers who responded to the Dallas Fed's survey also raised
concern about their economic health. One said agriculture as a whole
was “hurting,” citing challenges from factors like weather & higher
costs. Another put it more plainly, saying it was “preparing for the recession.”
Increased sausage demand could be worrying signal on the economy
Canada's gov announced it is imposing a 100% tariff on imports of Chinese-made electric vehicles that matches US tariffs & follows similar plans announced by the European Commission. The
announcement came after encouragement by US national security advisor
Jake Sullivan during a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin
Trudeau & cabinet ministers yesterday. Sullivan is making his first
visit to Beijing tomorrow. Trudeau said Canada also will impose a 25% tariff on Chinese steel & aluminum. “Actors like China have chosen to give themselves an unfair advantage in the global marketplace,” he said. Chinese officials are likely to raise concerns about American tariffs with Sullivan as Beijing continues to repair its economy after the COVID-19 pandemic. Pres Biden in May slapped major new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, advanced batteries, solar cells, steel, aluminum & medical equipment. “The
U.S. does believe that a united front, a coordinated approach on these
issues benefits all of us,” Sullivan said. Biden
has said Chinese gov subsidies for EVs & other consumer goods
ensure that Chinese companies don't have to turn a profit, giving them
an unfair advantage in global trade. Chinese firms can sell EVs for as little as $12K. China's solar cell plants & steel & aluminum mills have enough
capacity to meet much of the world's demand. Chinese officials argue
their production keeps prices low & would aid a transition to the
green economy. “We’re doing it in alignment, in parallel, with
other economies around the world that recognize that this is a challenge
that we are all facing,” Trudeau said. “Unless we
all want to get to a race to the bottom, we have to stand up.” Deputy
Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said Canada also will launch a 30-day
consultation about possible tariffs on Chinese batteries, battery parts,
semiconductors, critical minerals, metals & solar panels. “China
has a intentional state-directed policy of overcapacity and oversupply
designed to cripple our own industry,” Freeland added. “We simply will
not allow that to happen to our EV sector, which has shown such
promise.” The only Chinese-made EVs currently imported into Canada are from Tesla (TSLA), made at the company's Shanghai factory. TSLA stock fell 7.11 (3%).
Canada to put 100% tariff on China EV imports like Tesla's
Gold prices firmed, nearing its recent record high, amid solid bets of a Sep interest-rate cut following dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell & safe-haven demand due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2518 per ounce, just shy of the record high of $2531 hit last week & US gold futures settled 0.3% higher at $2555. The dovish signals from Powell's speech on Fri & safe-haven interest & geopolitical risks in the MidEast are precipitating the bid in gold. Hezbollah had launched hundreds of rockets & drones at Israel early on yesterday. There might be some indication that China is going to come back in, but even if they don't, demand from central banks has been pretty robust regardless of price this year and that's going to continue. Gold demand in top consumers India & China is expected to improve in the next few months, industry officials said.
Gold Nears Record High on US Rate-Cut Optimism, Geopolitical Risks
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed sharply higher on rising geopolitical risk as one of Libya's govs suspended exports while Israel & the Hezbollah militant group ratcheted up attacks, raising familiar concerns over a spreading Middle Eastern war. WTI crude for Oct closed up $2.59 to settle at $77.42 per barrel, while Oct Brent crude, the global benchmark, was last seen up $2.45 to $81.47 per barrel. Libya's eastern government on the weekend said it is suspending oil exports as it continues to fight for control over the country with a competing gov in its west. The shutdown of the bulk of the country's 1.5M barrels per day of exports comes on squabbling over control of a central bank with a competing gov in western Libya continues. The cut to exports comes as Israel & the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon increased attacks on each other, with Israel yesterday launching a series of airborne sorties on Hezbollah missile sites, while Hezbollah responded with rocket & drone attacks on Israel. Rising tension & reduced supply has boosted oil prices, which last week touched 7-month lows on concerns over the health of China's economy.
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