Showing posts with label housing starts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label housing starts. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Higher markets on improved housing starts

Dow rose 72, advancers 2-1 ahead of decliners & NAZ added 26.  But the Financial Index slipped a tad in the 198s.  The MLP index was flat at 398 (10 week high) & the REIT index dropped 2 to the 268s.  Junk bond funds rose near their 2012 highs & Treasuries were also higher with yields near record lows.  Oil was even & gold pulled back, heading back to its mid 1500s floor.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.092%

U.S. 2-year

0.230%

U.S. 10-year

1.486%

CLQ12.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 12...89.26 ......Up 0.04  (0.0%)

GCN12.CMX...Gold Jul 12........1,570.10 ...Down 19.00  (1.2%)



Get the latest daily market update below:



Housing Starts in U.S. Rose in June to Highest Level Since 2008

Photo:   Bloomberg

Construction of US. homes rose more than forecast in Jun to the fastest rate in almost 4 years, indicating a brighter outlook for the residential real estate market.  Housing starts rose 6.9% to a 760K annual pace after a revised 711K rate in May (faster than initially estimated by the Commerce Dept).  The forecast was for a 745K rate.  Building permits fell, reflecting a drop in applications for apartment construction.  Record-low mortgage rates & cheaper properties are attracting buyers, encouraging builders faced with lean inventories to boost construction.  At the same time, limited employment opportunities & competition from distressed properties are challenges for the industry.  The Jun pace was the fastest since Oct 2008 (just after the Lehman collapse).  Ben Bernanke said yesterday the industry was on the mend.  Growth in construction and “historically low mortgage rates” are among “modest signs” of a housing recovery, even as buyers show concern about personal finances & the broader economy and have difficulty meeting lending standards, Bernanke said.  Construction of single-family houses increased 4.7% to a 539K rate, the fastest since Apr 2010, from 515K a month earlier.  Work on apartment buildings & other multifamily units climbed 12.8% to an annual rate of 221K in Jun from 196K a month earlier.

Housing Starts in U.S. Rose in June to Highest Since 2008

  • Greek Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras (R) and his alternate minister of finance Christos Staikouras leave the Prime Minister's office in Athens July 17, 2012. REUTERS/John Kolesidis
Greek ministers
Photo:   Yahoo

Greek coalition leaders agreed to meet next week to hammer out almost €12B worth of austerity cuts demanded by the country's lenders after a deal proved elusive at an initial round of talks today.  Greek officials have spent the past week scrambling to identify €11.7B in spending cuts for 2013 & 2014 required before European & IMF officials visit Athens next week.  But a final decision is expected only after much bargaining among the 3 party leaders in the new conservative-led gov, each of whom is keen to avoid appearing in favor of cuts that heap more misery on austerity-weary voters.  After a 3-hour meeting, party leaders emerged to give the public the message that the gov would not impose any new spending cuts this year beyond those already agreed.  "We had a very good discussion," Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras told reporters after the meeting. "We agreed on the basic direction."  The new gov has said it will seek an additional 2 years to hit fiscal targets included in the bailout, but plans to make the request only after regaining lost credibility by getting its reform programm back on track.  The gov must agree to almost €12B in cuts to allow the issue of the next payment, probably in Sep.  EU officials have already indicated they would find the money to see it through Aug.  The Greek drama plays on (as it did last year)

Greek Leaders Push Back Decision on Austerity Cuts

  • An Intel logo is seen at the company's offices in Petah Tikva, near Tel Aviv October 24, 2011. REUTERS/Nir Elias
Photo:   Yahoo

Intel, a Dow stock, reduced its growth forecast, reinforcing fears that a wavering global economy & a lack of consumer interest are dampening PC sales.  Shaky economies in Europe & the US along with growing consumer preference for tablets have been taking a toll on the PC industry.  The world's leading chipmaker cut its 2012 revenue growth forecast to 3-5%, down from a prior forecast of "high single-digit growth."  CFO Stacy Smith said consumer spending in Europe & the US is softer than previously thought.  "At the beginning of the year we would have expected, along with most economists, that economic growth would start picking up and that would lead to an increase in consumer sales. Those expectations are now more muted," Smith said.  Revenue rose to $13.5B from $13.0B in the year-ago period, but fell short of the $13.56B expected.  INTC forecast Q3 revenue of $14.3B, plus or minus $500B.  Analysts on average had expected $14.6B.  GAAP EPS was 54¢, compared to the forecast of 52¢.  China & other emerging markets have been a key source of growth in recently for PC manufacturers, helping make up for weakness in the Europe & US.  "Emerging markets, especially China and Brazil, are still growing nicely but are moderating due to GDP adjustments and currency fluctuations," CEO Paul Otellini said.  He said global enterprise IT spending was expanding as expected, more due to the buildout of data centers powering the internet than tech infrastructure upgrades by banks or other corporations.  INTC said non-GAAP gross margins in Q2 were 64% & maintained its full-year gross margin forecast of 64%.  Despite the dreary forecast, the stock rose 62¢.

Intel (INTC)


stock chart


Housing starts data sounded good to the markets & earnings are coming in OK (that means good enough).  Meanwhile Big Ben is testifying before Congress & anything is possible after hearing his words, although shocks are not expected.  Dow has climbed back within 75 of its highs set 2 weeks ago.  The bulls would like to see it top that level of 12,950.

Dow Jones Industrials


stock chart






Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY!  

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Markets rise on increased housing starts

Dow rose 108, advancers over decliners better than 6-1 & NAZ gained 31.  The Financial Index added 2+ to 195, its highest level in more than a month.

The MLP index shot up 4+ to the 366s & the REIT index was up 1+ to the 256s.  Junk bond funds rose but Treasuries fell, bringing higher yields.  Oil advanced as Spanish bond yields declined after the gov met its target at a bill auction & European creditors prepared to ease Greece’s bailout terms.  Gold continues in sideways trading.

MLP (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)


stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.081%

U.S. 2-year

0.282%

U.S. 10-year

1.613%

CLN12.NYM....Crude Oil Jul 12...84.23 ...Up 0.96  (1.2%)

GCM12.CMX...Gold Jun 12....1,622.80 ...Down 2.90  (0.2%)





Get the latest daily market update below:



Housing Starts in U.S. Probably Climbed in May on Lower Rates

Photo:    Bloomberg

Builders broke ground on more single-family houses for a 3rd consecutive month in May & rising construction permits pointed to further gains.  Work began on 516K one-family houses last month, up 3.2% from Apr & the most this year, according to the Commerce Dept.  However, a slump in construction of apartments, which can be volatile, led to an unexpected drop in total housing starts.  Building permits, a proxy for future construction, climbed to the highest level since Sep 2008, showing the combination of lower prices & record-low mortgage rates is stimulating demand & encouraging new projects.  Total starts dropped 4.8% to 708K in May from a revised 744K in the prior month (the highest since Oct 2008).  The forecast was for 722K.  Building permits increased 7.9% to 780K, reflecting gains in single-family & multifamily homes.

Housing Starts in U.S. Fall 4.8% in May on Apartments


Walgreen to Acquire 45% Alliance Boots Stake For $6.7 Billion

Photo:   Bloomberg

Walgreen, a Dividend Aristocrat, will pay $6.7B for 45% of the  UK’s Alloiance Boots to create a global chain of pharmacies.  This will be paid with $4B in cash & the remainder in stock, with an option to gain full control in about 3 years.  The stake is being acquired from a group led by KKR & Alliance Boots Chairman Stefano Pessina, who bought the company in a £12.1B ($19B) buyout 5 years ago.  The combination gives WAG the UK.’s largest drugstore-chain company, with more than 11K stores in 12 countries & 370 distribution centers.  WAG will be able expand into emerging markets as well.  WAG has an option to buy the remaining 55% in 3 years.  The stock dropped 1.86 (6%) on the news.

Walgreen to Buy 45% Stake in Boots for $6.7 Billion

Walgreen (WAG)


stock chart


In Apr, employers posted the fewest job openings in 5 months, suggesting hiring will remain sluggish in the months ahead.  The Labor Dept said that job openings fell to a 3.4M, down from 3.7M in Mar (the highest in nearly 4 years).  The decline could mean employers are growing more cautious about adding workers in the face of financial turmoil in Europe & slower growth in the US.  Job openings can take 1-3 months to fill.  There were 12.5M unemployed in Apr.  That means there was an average of 3.7 people competing for each open job.  In a healthy job market, the ratio is usually around 2 to 1.  Openings have risen by almost a 1/3 since the recession ended in Jun 2009, but they are still below pre-recession levels of 5M per month.  The decline in openings has coincided with a sharp slowdown in hiring.  Employers added an average of only 73K jobs in Apr & May, down from a monthly average of 226K in Q1.  Fewer people quit their jobs last month, a pessimistic sign because more quits are evidence that workers are confident that they can find new jobs elsewhere.

US employers post fewest job openings in 5 months AP


Buyers are back, bidding up stock prices.  The housing data is encouraging, but the industry is still a long way form a robust recovery.  The € is up to $1.27, 3¢ above its recent lows, on word that the money guys will grade easy, helping troubled countries muddle by.  The markets may also be hoping for a QE3 out of the FOMC meeting.   I don't think so, but nobody knows.  The decision on Obamacare from the Supreme Court should come any day & that can be a market mover.   Dow is up 750 off its lows last month.

Dow Jones Industrials:


stock chart









Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY!  

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Markets rise on good earnings

Dow roared out of the gate & kept charging forward.  Dow shot up 168, advancers ahead of decliners 5-1 & NAZ jumped 43.  Bank stocks had only modest gains, taking the Financial Index up 2 to the 207s.  MLPs rebounded, taking the index up 3+ to the 389s & the REIT index added 1 to the 252s.  Junk bond funds edged higher while Treasuries were weak, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury back up to 2%.  Oil had a good day along with higher stock markets & gold was little changed.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.076%

U.S. 2-year

0.270%

U.S. 10-year

1.996%

CLK12.NYM...Crude Oil May 12...104.78 ...Up 1.85  (1.8%)

GCJ12.CMX....Gold Apr 12.........1,652.40 ....Up 3.70  (0.2%)



Get the latest daily market update below:



IMF Raises Global Economic Growth Forecast to 3.5% From 3.3%

Photo:   Bloomberg

The IMF is more optimistic about the global economy after seeing faster US growth & a co-ordinated effort in Europe to address its debt crisis.  It forecasts the US economy should expand 2.1% this year.  Europe will likely shrink 0.3% & the world economy should grow 3.5%.  All 3 estimates are slightly better than the Jan forecast.  The IMF praised European leaders for bulking up its bailout fund & taking other steps to address the crisis.  But it said the crisis continues to loom as the biggest threat to the global economy.  The report comes as the 187-nation IMF & its sister lending institution, the World Bank, prepare to hold their spring meetings in DC this week.

IMF Raises Global Economic Growth Forecast to 3.5% From 3.3%

  • A newly constructed home available for sale is pictured in a new housing development area in Vista, California March 20, 2012. REUTERS/Mike Blake
Photo:   Yahoo

Groundbreaking on homes fell unexpectedly in Mar, but permits for future construction rose to their highest level in 3½ years according to the Commerce Dept.  Housing starts slipped 5.8% to an annual rate of 654K units (under the forecasted rate of 705K).  Feb starts were revised down to a 694K-unit pace from a previously reported 698K unit rate.  The Mar decline was the biggest percentage drop in a year, although most of the fall was in the volatile multi-unit category, which declined 16.9%.  Starts for single-family homes eased only 0.2%.  Brightening the report's message on the economy, new permits for home construction surged.  Permits rose 4.5% to a 747K-unit pace last month, the highest since Sep 2008 (Lehman collapse) & beat expectations for a 710K-unit pace.  Depressed housing has showed signs of an recovery in recent months, & homebuilding could add to economic growth this year for the first time since 2005.  However, an oversupply of unsold homes, which is depressing prices, remains a major hurdle.  Sentiment among home builders ebbed in Apr for the first time in 7 months.  Housing is on the mend but returning to the good old days remains a distant goal.

U.S. Housing Starts Unexpectedly Drop to Five-Month Low


Coca-Cola Profit Tops Analysts’ Estimates

Photo:   Bloomberg

Coca Cola, a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, net income rose 8% in Q1 as it sold more drinks around the world.  EPS was 89¢, above 82¢ last year & was slightly ahead the 88¢ forecast.  Higher profit was driven by a 5% increase in global volume, with growth across all regions.  Smaller packages were introduced to attract price-conscious consumers as part of an effort to spur sales in North America, where the soft drink industry is in a 7-year decline.  Beverage sales volume for the unit climbed 2%, driven by demand for Powerade energy drinks & Dasani water.  The stock rose $1.78 to the $74s, not seen since the late 1990s.

Coca-Cola First-Quarter Profit Beats Estimates as North America Sales Jump

Coca-Cola Company (The) (KO)


stock chart


The stock markets are feeling better after earnings reports brought out buyers.  Dow is back over 13K but the S&P 500 is under 1400.  The European debt mess is back on the back burners, getting little attention even though Spain has become shaky.  The € is a proxy for the European economy & sovereign debt problems.  It's above $1.31 & has not changed much in 5 months.  Even with today's rise, Dow has returned to where it was 2 months ago.  But the bulls want to take over again.  Maybe they'll succeed this time.

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart







Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY!