Showing posts with label job gains. Show all posts
Showing posts with label job gains. Show all posts

Monday, January 9, 2012

Markets climb ahead of earnings season

Dow rose 32, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ was up 2.  Bank stocks had a limited gain.  Not an exciting day.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index

Value181.49One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change   0.91    (0.5%)

Surging prices for oil & natural gas shale are raising concerns of a bubble in valuations, which dragged down MLPs.  Their index fell 3+ to 391.  No complaints, unit holders are happy after reaching new highs last week.  REITs were lower & junk bond funds were mixed while Treasuries had a modest move up.  Oil & gold also pretty much traded sideways.

ALERIAN MLP Index



DJ REIT INDEXDJR



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Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.010%

U.S. 2-year

0.256%

U.S. 10-year

1.956%

CLG12.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 12...101.27 ...Down 0.29  (0.3%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Unemployment Falls to 8.5% as U.S. Adds 200K Jobs

Photo:   Bloomberg

Dec payroll growth in the US beat forecasts while the unemployment rate dropped to the lowest level in almost 3 years.  The 200K jobs increase followed a revised 100K gain in Nov that was smaller than first estimated.  The jobless rate unexpectedly fell to 8.5%, while hours worked & earnings climbed.  The unemployment rate was forecast to climb to 8.7% from a previously reported 8.6% in Nov (revised to 8.7%).  Private hiring rose 212K after a revised gain of 120K in Nov.  Sustained hiring is needed to support household spending that accounts for about 70% of the economy.  Retail trade payrolls climbed 28K as companies kept hiring for the holiday season.  Gains in consumer confidence & manufacturing suggest the US is withstanding the European economic crisis.  The president said the jobs report shows the economy is healing & appealed to Congress to extend a payroll-tax cut thru the rest of the year to assure growth continues.   Good news did not bring out buyers for stocks, not good.

U.S. Payrolls Beat Forecasts; Unemployment Falls\


Consumer Credit in U.S. Surged in November

Photo:   Bloomberg

Consumer borrowing increased in Nov by the largest amount in a decade.  They took out more loans to buy cars & charged more on credit cards to purchase holiday gifts, a sign of their growing confidence in the economy.  The Federal Reserve said total consumer borrowing rose $20.4B, the largest monthly increase since a $28B gain in Nov 2001.  The category which measures credit card debt rose $5.6B, the most since Mar 2008.  Another category that tracks auto loans increased $14.8B, close to a $14.1B jump in Jul, which was the biggest increase since Feb 2005.  



The International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) is here again.  Here are a few themes to watch for according to the NY Times.  The Ultrabook has arrived.  3 years ago, the biggest theme was, "Are we all going to go out of business?" followed by netbooks, small & inexpensive portable computers (I'm using one to write this article).  The following year, was the year of the tablet.  This year we may hear less about tablets.  Now PC makers will show off their own ideas about what a full-powered, superthin laptop called "ultraboook."  One problem, expect prices around $1K.  OK!  Expect gadgets telling us to eat less & exercise more.  There will be growth of wearable sensors.


  • The has been a fair amount of favorable economic news this year but that has not attracted stock buyers.  Instead there is nervousness in the markets, not sure how to measure that.  The bigger jobs report today should have been worth 200 on the Dow.  Instead it had a meager gain.  Iran & its potential to interrupt energy supplies from the countries on the Persian Gulf may cause the EU to move forward forward its meeting one week to Jan 23 (Chinese New Year).  Besides the debt mess, it will address a possible embargo on imports of Iranian oil.  Signs of economic recovery in the US are not generating excitement.  Tonight Alcoa (AA) kicks off earnings season & expectations are low.

    Dow Industrials


    stock chart



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    Wednesday, March 30, 2011

    Markets rise on job growth

    Dow shot up 74, advancers ahead of decliners 3-1 & NAZ added 12, all on the favorable jobs report.  After lagging the stock market in Mar, bank stocks are having a good day.

    S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

    Value 222.17 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
    Change    2.10  (1.0%)

    The MLP index was up 2+ to the 377s (7 short of a new record) & the REIT index add 1+ to the 233s.  Junk bond funds were higher (near multi year highs) & Treasuries were a little higher.  But yields are still near 2 week highs. Oil declined after an industry report showed that US inventories increased the most in 5 months.  Gold gained for the first time in 5 days as fighting in Libya & concern about European debt spurred demand for an alternative investment.

    JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


    stock chart

    BONDS


    U.S. 3-month
    0.10%
    U.S. 2-year
    0.80%
    U.S. 10-year
    3.47%

    CLK11.NYM...Crude Oil May 11...104.15....Down 0.64  (0.6%)

    GCJ11.CMX....Gold Apr 11.........1,425.50 ...Up 9.30  (0.7%)





    Photo:   Yahoo

    Private employers added 201K jobs in Mar, while the figure for Feb was revised down slightly (largely in line with expectations) according to ADP Employer Services.  The Feb figure was revised down to 208K from 217K.  The ADP figures come ahead of the more comprehensive jobs report on Fri, which includes both public & private sector employment.  That report is expected to show the economy created about 190K jobs in Mar, while private payrolls are forecast to rise by 200K.  However, the ADP report is not always accurate in predicting the outcome.  Over the previous 6 reports, ADP’s initial figures were closest to the Labor Dept’s first estimate in Feb (when it understated the gain in jobs by 5K) & least accurate in Dec (when it overestimated the employment gain by 184K). 

    ADP Estimates U.S. Companies Added 201,000 Jobs in March


    Family Dollar Stores (FDO), a Dividend Aristocrat, said fiscal Q2 net income rose 10%, helped by a better flow of customers & a modest improvement in the value of the average transaction. FDO also narrowed its full-year earnings forecast & expects higher earnings than expected.  EPS was 98¢ for the period ended Feb 26, up from 81¢ a year earlier & beat expectations of 96¢.  Revenue increased 8% to $2.26B, with the strongest results in the consumable & seasonal categories.  Revenue at stores open at least a year rose 5.1%.  Full year EPS is guided at $3.13-3.23, above the previous range of $3.08-3.23 per share, & revenue is expected to increase 8-10% Analysts expect EPS of $3.12.  FDO plans to open 300 new stores in FY2011, a 50% increase over the number of new store openings in FY2010 & plans to renovate 600-800 stores. The stock gained 40¢ to 52.80.

    Family Dollar 2Q net income up on better traffic AP

    Family Dollar Stores, Inc. (FDO)


    stock chart



    Japanese stocks rose, sending the Nikkei 225 to its highest close since Mar 11, as companies resumed production halted after the earthquake & tsunami.  Asian stocks rallied.  Markets want to close out Q1 on a strong note.  Dow is just 40 below the Feb 18 high & the MLP index will not need a lot of buying to reach another record high.  We're back to all news is good or at least "good enough."  Earnings for Q1 are around the corner.

    Dow Industrials (INDU)


    stock chart




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    Wednesday, July 30, 2008

    Markets up on favorable reports

    Dow is up 96, advancers ahead of decliners better than 2-1 & NAZ is up 9. Markets were encouraged by a favorable a private report showing the economy gained 9K jobs in June vs estimates of a 60K loss. As reported last night,the SEC is extending the new rules on short-selling. Pres Bush signed the housing bill helping 400K homeowners & Fannie Mae (FNM)/Freddie Mac (FRE). Oil continues to pull back, now it's below 122. Collectively these were taken as good signs for stock buyers.

    S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

    Value 290.30Change up 2.93 % Change up 1.02%

    Financials are cooling down, but are still having a nice day. In 1+ days, they're up 24. A leader, Bank of America (BAC), is up more than 1, even topped 34 on today's opening as shown in the 10 day chart:





    While financials are doing well, REITs pulled back after yesterday's strong gains. The Alerian MLP index inched up to 266, remaining close to 262 support level. MLPs while not directly related to oil, they only move oil & gas around, seem to follow its lead. Most will be going ex-distribution (typically representing 2+% of the stock's price) in the next few days distorting raw numbers. Sadly junk bond funds still can't get no respect with their 12% yields.

    More macro economic numbers are coming later this week. I think they will be giving gloomy signals. Oils will be reporting earnings in the next couple of days which should be record numbers. Bloomberg TV reported that hedge fund managers had a brutal (one of the worst ever) month after wrong bets. If true, prepare for big stock price swings when they try to even out positions.