Weak week!!

This was a weak week, maybe it wasn't so bad being the first week in 3 when the Dow didn't decline more than 500 (due to a shortened time frame?). Today Dow was up 73 but I don't know how since there were only 2 (CVX & UTX) with gains of more than 1. Decliners led advancers 2-1, NAZ declined 6 while S&P 500 only gained 1 to 1263 (staying below the important 1270). Even with low volume, there were 500 new lows on NYSE. Oil was pushing 146, slipping back to the 145s at present. After the ECB raised its rate 25 basis points, it signalled not to hold your breath for the next rate hike. The Euro remains at a hefty $1.57.

Next week, the first 2 Dow stocks release earnings. Earnings for non-financials are expected to be OK, but guidance going forward will grab most of the attention. The same theme should continue: overseas business is strong while domestic is weak producing a cautious outlook for the balance of the year. I like banks, some interesting thoughts about problems they face. Overseas markets will generally be open on July 4 if you want to peak. Otherwise, have a good holiday!

Markets mixed

Markets were mixed, really down. Dow is up 74, but don't know how as none of the 30 are up as much as 1 & only 17 are in the green. Decliners are ahead of advancers 2-1, NAZ is about even & S&P 500 is under 1270, but up 5 to 1267. As expected, the ECB raised its interest rate 25 basis points sending the dollar a little higher. The Labor Dept reported employers laid off 62K, 6th straight month of losses, in line with expectations. The real number is 30K higher if gov hiring is excluded. In addition, the number of new applications for unemployment claims rose 16K to 404K (above 400K is considered bad). Oil is over 146 on some news about something (these days, who cares?). Remember the call about oil reaching 150 by July 4? We're essentially there on July 3.

Banks are getting punished again. Bank of America (BAC), in the Dow, at only 22 & yielding almost 12% is down 50% from just a couple of months ago. Increased attention to the problems of auto makers & talk about bankruptcies will weigh on the markets for awhile.

Asian markets down again

Asian & Australian markets are following US markets down, typically 1-2% declines. However, Tokyo is rebounding & trying to break into the black. If it doesn't, this will be its 11th straight daily decline. The Shanghai market is down 51% this year, down 57% from its peak just a few weeks prior. Oil continues strong, up to new records at 144.28.

Stocks at new yearly lows

After a weak attempt at a morning rally, stocks were overwhelmed & suffered major losses. Dow declined 166 to 11,215, many call that official bearish territory. NYSE volume was 1.4B, a little lower than the last couple of days but it was considered routine last year. Decliners were ahead of advancers 5-2 and NAZ was down a big 53. The S&P 500 closed at 1261, below the 1270 line, many consider another signal of a bear market. There were all kinds of gloomy news on what should have been a quiet holiday kind of day for trading. No surprise that oil reached another record, above 144. General Motors (GM), a Dow stock, plunged 15% giving up yesterday's gains so it could become a $10 stock (I repeat, TEN DOLLARS). Henry Paulson, Sec of Treasury, said the housing crisis & credit crunch have a ways to go.

I don''t know but it's like the economy is fighting significant headwinds. There was talk about the relatively good US retail sales for May. The problem is that they were aided by tax rebate checks & used to largely purchase food & energy. Those tax rebate checks are ending, with no additional stimulus but higher prices & higher unemployment are expected to drag on. Unemployment figures & the decision by the European Central Bank in raising its rates will be major tomorrow. Let's see what they bring in just ½ day.

Dow on a 2 day winning streak

Dow is on a 2 day winning streak, up 38 today! But advancers are barely ahead of decliners & NAZ is even. S&P 500 at 1290, held above the important 1270 level so far. Not much happening on this holiday kind of shortened week. A private report shows the number of private sector jobs fell 79K in June, mostly from manufacturing. This sends a signal that the next unemployment report from the Dept of Labor will not be pretty. The Commerce Dept reported that factory orders rose 0.6% in May following a 1.3% rise in the prior month. The macro story remains the same, domestic business is weak while exports are strong. Oil is even (believe it or not!) ahead of the weekly inventory report due in a few hours.

Blockbuster (BBI) pulled its offer to buy Circuit City (CC). Both are $2 stocks, CC pulled back to 2 while BBI rose 32¢. For some a big story, Starbucks (SBUX), up 14¢, is closing 600 US outlets (19% of US company stores). Either they're now a mature business or times are really tough! There should not be much news today leading to volatility, so here's some thoughts about bear markets.

Asian stocks down

Asian & Australian stock markets are generally down, only Taiwan & Shanghai are showing gains & they're minor. The negative news on June sales for US automakers is dragging down stocks (such as Toyota, Honda, etc.) & makes investors nervous about the US economy (their #1 customer). Oil is up 1.20. Recent worries about Israel attacking Iran are responsible for the latest gains in oil. There is continuing talk about ECB raising their interest rate 25 basis points on Thurs.

I found an excellent site for investment ideas:

http://www.earthtowallstreet.com/

July begins with gains

After markets were down midday, an afternoon rally gave modest gains. Dow ended up 32, but decliners were ahead of advancers 3-2 & NAZ was up 12. There were 626 new lows on NYSE led by: C, JPM, WFC, MER, TXN, AIG, FRE, USB, UBS, HD, & PG (6 of these 11 are Dow stocks). Volume was 1.6B, like yesterday. Volume is above previous low levels, but not exceptional & may just be evening out portfolios before & after qtr end. Some of the rally in the PM was stimulated by General Motors (GM), up 25¢, reporting June sales better than the worst fears (their version of good news). Meanwhile, Toyota (TM), down 34¢, reported a 21% sale decline in June sales. You know business is bad when GM gains at the expense of Toyota. Banks had a very good day after being down 5% at midday. Bank of America (BAC) had been down over 1 but ended up with only a 6¢ loss. Not bad except it's still 10 (that's TEN $) below the Mar lows. Another analyst talks about banks needing billions $ more. Oil was up 1 to 141 after its usual volatile day.

Today's movements were typical of recent confusing markets. Banks were long over do for a relief rally. Many are down 20% in the last 2 weeks. But major problems continue: housing, credit crunch, high oil prices, etc. This is a holiday shortened week, not a lot is expected. Let's see what tomorrow brings!

Markets start new quarter down

Markets continue in a negative mood. Dow is down 53, decliners over advancers 2-1 & NAZ is down 14. Overseas markets sold off on their first day of trading in the new quarter & it looks like the US may continue. Oil can be counted on for more stores. Oil approached 143 on more tensions from the Mideast. Fundamentals remain sour for oil with no new supply & plenty of demand. Construction spending fell 0.4% in May, the 25th decline in the last 26 months. Lehman (LEH) is down 10% this week as it tries to reassure investors they are in good shape & will not need a bail-out. Banks rallied a little from being GREATLY oversold! The Alerian MLP index has a slight negative slope this year & has been weak in recent weeks along with about everything else. They may have to test this year's lows in the 260s again.

New quarter with old economic problems

Economic times continue tough in the new qtr. This is a holiday shortened week ending with a ½ day on Thurs. Just before markets close here, the European Central Bank is expected to finally raise rates to help curb inflation. Meanwhile trading here should be limited but probably will have a negative tone if buyers remain on holiday.