Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Markets are recovering early losses

Dow dropped 96 (100+ above the lows), decliners over advancers 5-2 but NAZ gained 22.  Bargain hunters also are buying bank stocks after falling sharply in early trading.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value 151.19 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change   -0.66    (-0.4%)

The Alerian MLP Index sank another 9 to the 322s, nearing the yearly low of 316 in May.  The REIT index fell 2+ to the 191s.  The charts below show the last year as a reminder of how bad this decline is.  Junk bond funds were hit very hard, down 2-5% where a 1-2% retreat is considered substantial.  Treasuries are flattish with yields at or near record lows benefitting on investment from flight to safety money.  Oil fell for a 3rd day amid concern that fuel demand will drop as investors lose confidence in the economies of the US & Europe.  Gold is only treading water.

ALERIAN MLP Index (^AMZ)




DJ REIT INDEXDJR (^DJR)



Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.005%

U.S. 2-year

0.243%

U.S. 10-year

1.763%

CLX11.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 11...76.00 ...Down 1.61  (2.1%)

GCV11.CMX...Gold Oct 11......1,652.80...Down 3.20  (0.2%)


Click below for the latest market update:







U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is pictured before testifying at a Joint Economic Committee hearing on the economic outlook, on Capitol Hill in Washington October 4, 2011. REUTERS/Jason Reed
Photo:  Yahoo

Ben Bernanke said the Federal Reserve is prepared to take further steps to help a fragile economic recovery held back by a weak job market & financial stresses in Europe.  "The Committee will continue to closely monitor economic developments and is prepared to take further action as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in the context of price stability," he said. Given anemic employment growth that has depressed consumer confidence, Bernanke urged lawmakers not to cut spending too quickly in the short term even as they grapple with trimming the budget deficit over the long term because gov belt-tightening was likely to prove a significant drag on the world's largest economy. "An important objective is to avoid fiscal actions that could impede the ongoing economic recovery," he said,  Bernanke said European financial strains posed "ongoing risks" to U.S. economic growth, saying they had already dampened the mood of households & businesses.  A depressed housing sector & tight credit are other factors preventing a more robust expansion, Bernanke said, & he offered little prospect that the labor market would improve soon. "Recent indicators, including new claims for unemployment insurance and surveys of hiring plans, point to the likelihood of more sluggish job growth in the period ahead," he told the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. Stressing that higher inflation earlier in the year had not become ingrained in the economy, Bernanke argued price pressures will remain subdued for the foreseeable future.  The market's reaction was more selling.



  • <p>               High school students chant slogans outside the Greek Parliament during a protest in central Athens, Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2011. A string of missed fiscal targets has stoked fears that Greece - weighed under a massive debt load - is headed toward certain default, stalling the global economy's slow recovery from recession. (AP Photo/Petros Giannakouris)
         Greece today
         Photo:   Yahoo

Greece has enough money to pay pensions, salaries & bondholders thru mid-Nov, the finance minister said, on worries that a messy default could bring down European banks & trigger another global recession.  Greece had previously said it would start running out of money in mid-Oct if it didn't get the next €8B ($11B) installment of the €110B rescue package it has been relying on since last year.  But Evangelos Venizelos sought to reassure Greeks & investors that the country can hold on a little longer while its rescue creditors decide whether to give it more loans.  "Until mid-November it is clear there will be no problem," said Venizelos, upon returning from a eurozone finance ministers' meeting in Luxembourg.  Eurozone ministers have indicated that while Greece would get its next batch of loans, that decision would not be made until later this month, after the intl debt inspectors in Athens complete their review of Greece's reforms.  A related problem is European govs hinted that bondholders may be saddled with bigger losses on Greek debt, intensifying market jitters that a 2nd aid package designed might unravel.  This means the Greek drama will drone on for several weeks.


AMR Resumes Pilot Talks, Stock Rout Shows Bankruptcy Concern

Photo:    Bloomberg

American Airlines will resume contract negotiations with pilots, a bellwether work group, after parent AMR shares fell the most since 2003 on concern the company may file for bankruptcy.  This is latest effort to reach an agreement in bargaining that began in 2006.  AMR reiterated yesterday that Chapter 11 protection “is certainly not our goal or our preference.”  “More and more of our pilots are worried about the viability of our company and the bankruptcy potential to affect pensions,” Sam Mayer, an Allied Pilots Association spokesman, said.  Yesterday’s plunge followed a 2nd straight month of higher-than-normal retirements among pilots locking in pension values.  The plunge was aggravated by big picture worries that an economic slowdown will hurt AMR especially hard.  The stock has had an ugly go of it lately, but rallied 28¢ to $2.26 today.

AMR Resumes Pilot Talks Amid Stock Rout

AMR Corporation (AMR)


stock chart


Markets are groping, looking for direction.  Ben was not much help, not that he has many more magic tricks to help an ailing economy.  Apple (AAPL) stock is about even, ahead of its big product announcement for the new iPhone.  If buyers bid up the stock, that enthusiasm should benefit the entire stock market.  But today is followed by tomorrow & markets will need more encouragement to bring out buyers.  The Greek debt mess will be around for weeks (at a minimum), not encouraging, & the US economy seems to be frozen.  Business does not want to expand in a major way.  Instead excess cash is being used for div increases.  That's good but also bad in the sense that investments in the future are limited.

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart



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Monday, October 3, 2011

Greek debt woes bring sharp sell-off

Dow sank 258 (a new yearly low), decliners ahead of advancers 6-1 & NAZ slumped 79.  As was the case lately, market leader bank stocks led the selling.  The Financial Index is flirting with lows not seen since the middle of 2009!

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value151.85One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change   -7.63    (-2.2%)

The MLP index dropped a very large 7+ (big daily swings have become common in 2011) & the REIT index fell 9 to the 194s (last seen in early 2010).  Junk bond funds were lower after having a bad Q3 but Treasuries were strong with the yield on the 10 year Treasury near its record lows of 1¾%.  Oil continued weak on worries about less demand from Europe.  Gold soared as investors sought a safe haven investment.

Alerian MLP Index


Value332.74One-Year Chart for Alerian MLP Index (AMZ:IND)
Change    -7.63     (-2.2%)


Click below for the latest market update:




Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.005%

U.S. 2-year

0.239%

U.S. 10-year

1.788%


CLX11.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 11...77.28 ...Down 1.92  (2.4%)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




AMR Falls Most Since 2009 on Recession, Bankruptcy Concern

Photo:   Bloomberg

American Airlines parent company stock tumbled on renewed concerns that the carrier could be headed for bankruptcy protection.  Shares fell 98¢ to $1.98 after plummeting to their lowest point since 2003.  A major airline trade group, The International Air Transport Association, said that the industry may be headed for a downturn.  AMR is considered to be in the most vulnerable financial position of major US carriers & is the only major airline that has not filed for bankruptcy in the last decade, leaving it saddled with higher costs for everything from labor to financing.  It is the only major airline that lost money this year. In Q2 alone it lost $286M. 

AMR Stock Plunges on Bankruptcy Concern

AMR Corporation (AMR)


stock chart


  • <p>               In this Aug. 31, 2011 photo, a Perry Construction employee loads wood at Spahn & Rose Lumber Co. in Dubuque, Iowa. U.S. builders increased spending on homes, office buildings and other projects in August after a big decline in July. The gain still left the construction industry far below levels considered healthy. (AP Photo/Mike Burley, The Telegraph Herald) MANDATORY CREDIT
Photo:   Yahoo

US builders increased spending on homes, office buildings & other projects in Aug after a big decline in Jul.  While the gain is modestly good news for the economy, it still left the construction industry far below levels considered healthy.  Construction spending rose 1.4% in Aug according to the Commerce Dept.  The increase followed a 1.4% drop in Jul, the biggest setback in 6 months.  Much of the increase stemmed from a jump in spending on gov projects, such as roads & schools which aren't expected to continue.  Private construction is still not healthy.  Building activity reached an annual rate of $799.1B, 4.8% above an 11-year low hit in Mar (but barely more than half the $1.5T pace considered healthy).  It could be 4 years before construction returns to healthy levels. A dismal outlook for housing & a weak economy have forced govs to cut back on building plans. 

Construction Spending in U.S. Unexpectedly Rose in August on Local Outlays


ABC News (DIS) & Yahoo are joining to deliver more online news to their audiences.  ABC News content will be prominently featured on Yahoo News & will also show up on Yahoo's popular front page.  The 2 news organizations have a combined online audience of more than 100M per month in the US.  While, the deal helps ABC grow its online reach, YHOO can drive further traffic to its own site by featuring original, made-for-online content.  Both companies will maintain editorial control of their own content.   YHOO rose 36¢.

Yahoo Strikes News Accord With ABC as Alibaba Weighs Offer for Web Portal

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO)


stock chart


The economic news today was so-so at best.  Manufacturing data was only modestly encouraging, but orders (future activity) were weak.  Trucks sales were a major factor in improved auto sales, more of a temporary influence rather than a long term trend.  Construction remains stuck in the mud.  There is a sense of unease in the business world.  Consumer behavior is not encouraging & the gov is no help, to say the least.  Then there's Greece, a coming disaster in slow motion.  Markets don't like what they see in the US & global economies, there are no quick fixes.  The VIX, volatility index, went up 1+ to the 44s, flirting with its yearly highs made in Aug.  Dow may have to test 10K, not that far away, probably this week.  The jobs report on Fri has the potential to bring Dow below 10K after it's announced.

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart



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Greek debt problems weigh on markets

Asian markets sold off 2-4%, but US markets began the day near break even.  Then selling returned.  Dow fell 42, decliners over advancers 3-1 & NAZ was off 12.  Bank stocks are also sliding lower from a small gain in early trading.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value 158.60 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change     -0.45    (-0.3%)

The Alerian MLP index dropped 4+ to the 335s but the REIT was up a fraction to 204.  Junk bond funds were marginally lower while Treasuries gained on a flight to safety.  Oil fell to the lowest level in almost 2 months on concern that Greece will default, leading to slower global economic growth & lower fuel consumption.  These same fears drove demand for safe haven gold.

ALERIAN MLP Index (^AMZ)




DJ REIT INDEXDJR (^DJR)



Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.010%

U.S. 2-year

0.243%

U.S. 10-year

1.866%

CLX11.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 11...77.73 .....Down 1.47  (1.9%)

GCV11.CMX...Gold Oct 11......1,654.50 ...Up 34.10  (2.1%)


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Factory activity expanded at a faster pace than expected in Sep as production & hiring increased, a sign of resilience in manufacturing despite faltering economic growth.  The Institute for Supply Management said its index of national factory activity rose to 51.6 last month from 50.6 in Aug.  Sep marks the 26th straight month of expansion in a sector that has shouldered the broader economic recovery.  A measure of factory employment rose to 53.8 last month from 51.8 in Aug, while production climbed to 51.2 from 48.6.  Call this slightly good news.

ISM Manufacturing Index Rises, Defying Forecasts


Greece's Prime Minister George Papandreou

Photo:   Bloomberg

The Greek gov passed a new budget backed by its creditors, including larger deficits than previously forecast, as the country moves closer to securing an €8B ($10.7B) payout needed to avoid default.  The Cabinet also passed €6.6B of austerity measures to cut the 2012 deficit to 6.8% of GDP, missing the 6.5% goal previously set with the EU, IMF, & ECB (known as the troika).  Greek bonds fell before European finance ministers gather to consider enhancement’s to the region’s rescue fund. Prime Minister Papandreou adopted the austerity measures under pressure from the troika as the country’s 3-year recession sapped revenue needed to close the fiscal gap.  The yield on Greece’s 10-year bond rose 6 basis points to 22.74% & the 2-year yield gained 10 basis points to 62.27!  Greece’s measures, which still require parliamentary approval, aim to secure disbursement of the €8B loan payout this month.  The extraordinary yields on Greek debt tell it all.

Greece Pledges $8.8 Billion in Austerity


Chrysler September Sales Rise 27%

Chrysler 300
Photo:   Bloomberg

General Motors US sales rose 20% in Sep because of strong demand for full-size pickups & SUVs.  Pickup & SUV sales are generally stronger in the fall.  GM & other companies were offering promotions on trucks.  GM truck sales climbed 34% from Sep 2010, a much stronger increase than cars (up 12%).  Sales across the industry are expected to have risen as more Japanese vehicles fill showrooms after months of earthquake-related shortages but the jump could be short-lived because potential car buyers remain worried about the economy.  Chrysler auto sales rose 27.2% on high demand for its new models.  Chrysler sold 127K, up from 100K last year.  Its top seller was the Dodge Ram which sold 24K pickups, up 45% from Sep 2010.

GM, Chrysler September U.S. Vehicle Sales Beat Estimates on Light Trucks

General Motors Company (GM)


stock chart



Markets began the month stronger than was expected after heaving selling overseas.  But bears are returning.  Apple (AAPL) is expected to announce a new iPhone this week which will test its fans' resolve in a global economic market that is not doing well.  Kodak (EK) said it will not file for Chapter 11, the stock almost doubled to $1.50!.  Auto sales look good, but that may be more related to temporary factors.  The big event is the jobs report on Fri.  Expectations are for a meager 60K jobs to be added to the economy (200+K is needed to do much good) & the unemployment rate will remain dreary.  Then there's the Greek drama which drones on.  Plenty of worries out there for the stock market.  Oct could be another rough month.

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart



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