Showing posts with label Federal Reserve. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Federal Reserve. Show all posts

Thursday, September 13, 2012

Markets rally after more stimulus announced

Dow jumped 206 (near the high), advancers ahead of decliners almost 4-1 & NAZ shot up 41.  The Financial Index surged 5+ to 217.  The MLP index rose 2+ to 400 (not seen in almost 6 months) & the REIT index shop 3+ to the 273s, a new 4 year high.  Junk bond funds gained & Treasuries inched higher.  Oil went up & gold had a surge (see chart below) after the big announcement.

Dow Jones Industrials


stock chart




Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.097%

U.S. 2-year

0.234%

U.S. 10-year

1.726%


CLV12.NYM...Crude Oil Oct 12...98.11 ...Up 1.10 (1.1%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]





Bernanke: Firms Don't Have Enough Product Demand

Photo:   Bloomberg

Big Ben Bernanke said the Federal Reserve (FED) does not have a specific economic target for its new stimulus program & will keep buying bonds until it sees more jobs, lower unemployment & stronger growth.  "We are looking for on-going sustained improvement in the labor market," Bernanke said during a news conference.  "There's not a specific number in mind.  But what we've seen in the last six months isn't it."  The FED said that it will spend $40B a month to buy mortgage bonds for as long as it deems necessary.  It plans to keep short-term interest rates at record lows thru mid-2015 & it's ready to try other measures if hiring doesn't improve.  The FED said “a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens.” 

Fed Undertakes QE3 With $40 Billion MBS Purchases Per Month


Fed Officials Upgrade Economic Growth Outlook

Photo:   Bloomberg

FED officials said economic growth will improve faster than they had earlier projected as they embarked on a 3rd round of asset purchases aimed at spurring the expansion.  They upgraded the estimate for 2013 GDP growth to 2.5-3%, compared with 2 to 2.2% in Jun.  Estimates for 2014 are for 3-3.8% growth, versus 3-3½% previously estmated.  Officials forecasted today that unemployment will average 7.6-7.9% in Q4 2012, compared with 7.5- 8% at the Jun meeting.  13 of 19 officials said the first interest-rate increase would be warranted in 2015 or later.  The FED has kept the benchmark lending rate in a record-low range between zero & 0.25% since Dec 2008.



U.S. Embassy in Yemen Stormed as Protests Over Film Spread

Photo:  Bloomberg

Protesters attempted to storm the US embassy in the Yemen capital Sana’a & one was reported to have been shot dead, while demonstrators rallied in Egypt & Iran against a film seen as insulting to Islam.  The spread of violence follows the killing of the American ambassador to Libya, & 3 colleagues during an attack on consular buildings in Benghazi 2 days ago.  Groups tied to al-Qaeda may have been involved & several people have been arrested in Libya for that attack.  Demonstrators in Sana’a today breached the embassy compound’s security perimeter & set 2 cars ablaze, as security personnel fired into the air to disperse the crowd.  In Egypt, at least 216 people were injured, most from tear- gas inhalation, in a 3rd day of clashes near the US Embassy in Cairo.  There were also demonstrations outside the Swiss mission in Tehran, which represents US interests in Iran.  Anti-American violence threatens US efforts to establish ties with the new govs that are emerging in the MidEast after last year’s wave of revolts.  These are negatives for all stock markets.  If nothing else, oil is heading higher.

U.S. Embassy in Yemen Stormed as Protests Over Film Spread


There were no shortage of buyers after Big Ben made his announcement.  He's committed to low rates that they will be extended even when the economy recovers.  Sounds good, but all is not well.  Violence in the MidEast is on the rise, threatening major oil suppliers.  Europe remains in a recession while the debt messes drag on.  While China is doing well, it's not good enough by its standards.  Then there is the US.  The fiscal cliff has not gone away.  It's approaching, only a few months away & nobody in DC is doing anything.  In addition, the stimulus by the FED has not done that much good since the last recession.  Nobody knows what good this stimulus will do.  But Dow feels great at its 4 years highs.  Once again, breadth is thin relative to the big gains for the averages.  Also rising gold prices are bets against this stimulus.

Dow Jones Industrials


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Friday, September 7, 2012

Markets waver after a disappointing jobs report

Dow was up 14, advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ inched up pocket change.  The Financial Index gained 2 to go over 210.  The MLP index was up a fraction in the 396s & the REIT index rose a fraction to above 270, a new 4 year high.  Junk bond funds slid lower & Treasuries lost much of their early gains, finishing slightly higher.  Oil also fell back from the AM prices but gold continued surging on bets that stimulus is coming & it will make matter worse.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


stock chart




Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.101%

U.S. 2-year

0.250%

U.S. 10-year

1.664%

CLV12.NYM...Crude Oil Oct 12...96.42 ...Up 0.89 (0.9%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Big Ben's case for further monetary easing was bolstered by figures showing widespread weakness in the labor market.  He may push for new bond purchases or an extension of the Federal Reserve pledge to hold the main interest rate near zero thru at least late 2014.  Today’s unemployment report also showed that the participation rate, which indicates the share of working-age people in the labor force, fell to the lowest in 31 years.  The Federal Reserve’ forecasts call for unemployment of 5.2%- 6% in the long run.  At next week’s meeting, the policy makers plan to update their estimates for unemployment & other economic data.  At their last meeting a month ago, many members of the FOMC said additional stimulus would be warranted unless there was a “substantial and sustainable strengthening” in the economy.

Labor Market Strengthens Bernanke’s Case for More Easing


The biggest decline in factory jobs in 2 years reported today by the Labor Dept adds to signs that manufacturing is bearing the brunt of the slowdown in global growth.  Factory payrolls declined 15K workers last month, according to figures issued today.  The workweek shrank & the share of industries hiring plunged to the lowest level in almost 3 years.  Combined with earlier data showing less demand for capital equipment & growing pessimism among purchasing managers, today’s figures show manufacturing, which helped lead the US out of the worst recession in the post-World War II era, is pulling back.  Companies such as Intel (INTC), a Dow stock, are among those cutting forecasts as business investment cools & economies from Europe to Asia slow.  While the drop in factory hiring last month was magnified by changes in the annual shutdowns at auto plants, the decline extended beyond a single industry.  Producers of wood products, fabricated metals, electrical equipment & semiconductors also reduced headcounts in Aug.

Jobs Data Show U.S. Factories Bearing Brunt of Slowdown

  • <p>               German Chancellor Angela Merkel speaks at a press conference at the federal chancellery in Vienna, Austria, Friday, Sept. 7, 2012. In background Austria's coat of arms.  (AP Photo/Ronald Zak)
Photo:   Yahoo

Angela Merkel, who is becoming THE financial leader in Europe, says the fate of the € depends more on the need for bold political decisions by members of the euro zone than it does on the ECB's new powers to bolster financially struggling countries.  She spoke after the ECB decided on a broad policy of buying the bonds of economically troubled European govs to ease their borrowing costs.  The head of Germany's central bank was opposed to the ECB move, but Merkel was open to the plan as long as the nations benefiting agreed to strict economic reforms - a condition the ECB adopted.  Merkel says the ECB made it clear "the future of the € will be decided fundamentally by political action, and that conditionality is a very important point."  She recognized that bailout money has its limits on solving euro debt problems. 

Merkel: Euro fate tied to political will, not ECB AP


Markets have a lot to digest over the weekend.  The bulls are praying Big Ben will bail them out once again.  But even if he does, it's not clear how much good it will do.  The Federal Reserve has already done a lot, followed by an economy that is slipping & sliding into a recession.  But today's jobs report was so bad, he may feel compelled to do something.  The big question is, What?  Euro remains a mystery.  The new bailout program requires a country to request funds, which can get tricky.  But the markets like the idea with the € is at near term highs & risky gov bonds have been rising.  Dow continues near 4 years highs, above 13K.

Dow Jones Industrials


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Friday, August 31, 2012

Markets rally after Federal Reserve takes no new actions

Dow shot up 125, advancers ahead of decliners 3-1 & NAZ gained 25.  Bank stocks were stronger, taking the Finacial Index up 2 to 204, a 4 month high.  The MLP & REIT indices continued in their sideways trading range, flattish again today.  Junk bond funds were a little higher as were Treasuries.  Oil & gold also rose.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.086%

U.S. 2-year

0.242%

U.S. 10-year

1.611%

CLV12.NYM...Crude Oil Oct 12...96.31 ....Up 1.69  (1.8%)

GCU12.CMX...Gold Sep 12.....1,652.10 ...Down 1.40  (0.1%)



Get the latest daily market update below:





Photo:   Yahoo

Big Ben delivered a mostly somber message on growth, but offered no further action to stimulate the moribund economy.  He reiterated his position that the FOMC stands at the ready to provide help but is not yet unleashing additional stimulus.  But he talked about asset purchases known as quantitative easing.  The Federal Reserve (FED) has expanded its balance sheet to $2.8T thru purchases of Treasurys & other debt to boost the stock market & stimulate the economy.  The FED also has kept its funds rate target near zero & has indicated that policy is unlikely to change until at least 2014.  But his speech was mostly an academic exercise that explained the FED rationale for its actions since the 2008 financial crisis, with just a smattering of its intentions going forward.  Bernanke said research shows that FED asset purchases "have significantly lowered" yields for long-term Treasurys, corporate bonds and mortgage-backed securities, while lifting stock prices & helping the economy.  "It is probably not a coincidence that the sustained recovery in U.S. equity prices began in March 2009, shortly after the FOMC's decision to greatly expand securities purchases," Bernanke said. "This effect is potentially important because stock values affect both consumption and investment decisions."


 
Business activity in the US. expanded at a slower pace in Aug, indicating companies may hold the line on production until sales pick up.  The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago said today its business barometer fell to 53 this month from 53.7 in Jul.  Figures greater than 50 signal expansion.  The forecast was the gauge would drop to 53.2.  Companies may lack the confidence to invest in new equipment & hire as they face a global economic slowdown & the fiscal cliff threat of more than $600B in gov spending cuts & higher taxes.  Manufacturing, which helped spur the recovery, is providing less of a boost for the 3-year-old expansion.

August Business Activity in U.S. Expanded at Slower Pace


The Spanish gov plans to further cut salaries of executives at banks that have received financial aid, Economy Minister Luis de Guindos said.  De Guindos announced new banking sector regulation as conditions to receiving up to €100B in euro aid to prop up the country's most troubled banks.  He said that for the time being there was no need to ask for accelerated aid for any Spanish banks.  Odds are that Spain will still need a bailout.

No announcement about another round of stimulus didn't stop the bulls today.  They sense a QE3 coming & are buying before the announcement.  Of course many are away on holiday, so it's difficult to make much of this move.  The 13K floor held for the Dow, but that has not meant much in the last 6 months when the Dow has not strayed from from that level.

Dow Jones Industrials


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