Showing posts with label factory production. Show all posts
Showing posts with label factory production. Show all posts

Friday, September 7, 2012

Markets waver after a disappointing jobs report

Dow was up 14, advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ inched up pocket change.  The Financial Index gained 2 to go over 210.  The MLP index was up a fraction in the 396s & the REIT index rose a fraction to above 270, a new 4 year high.  Junk bond funds slid lower & Treasuries lost much of their early gains, finishing slightly higher.  Oil also fell back from the AM prices but gold continued surging on bets that stimulus is coming & it will make matter worse.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.101%

U.S. 2-year

0.250%

U.S. 10-year

1.664%

CLV12.NYM...Crude Oil Oct 12...96.42 ...Up 0.89 (0.9%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Big Ben's case for further monetary easing was bolstered by figures showing widespread weakness in the labor market.  He may push for new bond purchases or an extension of the Federal Reserve pledge to hold the main interest rate near zero thru at least late 2014.  Today’s unemployment report also showed that the participation rate, which indicates the share of working-age people in the labor force, fell to the lowest in 31 years.  The Federal Reserve’ forecasts call for unemployment of 5.2%- 6% in the long run.  At next week’s meeting, the policy makers plan to update their estimates for unemployment & other economic data.  At their last meeting a month ago, many members of the FOMC said additional stimulus would be warranted unless there was a “substantial and sustainable strengthening” in the economy.

Labor Market Strengthens Bernanke’s Case for More Easing


The biggest decline in factory jobs in 2 years reported today by the Labor Dept adds to signs that manufacturing is bearing the brunt of the slowdown in global growth.  Factory payrolls declined 15K workers last month, according to figures issued today.  The workweek shrank & the share of industries hiring plunged to the lowest level in almost 3 years.  Combined with earlier data showing less demand for capital equipment & growing pessimism among purchasing managers, today’s figures show manufacturing, which helped lead the US out of the worst recession in the post-World War II era, is pulling back.  Companies such as Intel (INTC), a Dow stock, are among those cutting forecasts as business investment cools & economies from Europe to Asia slow.  While the drop in factory hiring last month was magnified by changes in the annual shutdowns at auto plants, the decline extended beyond a single industry.  Producers of wood products, fabricated metals, electrical equipment & semiconductors also reduced headcounts in Aug.

Jobs Data Show U.S. Factories Bearing Brunt of Slowdown

  • <p>               German Chancellor Angela Merkel speaks at a press conference at the federal chancellery in Vienna, Austria, Friday, Sept. 7, 2012. In background Austria's coat of arms.  (AP Photo/Ronald Zak)
Photo:   Yahoo

Angela Merkel, who is becoming THE financial leader in Europe, says the fate of the € depends more on the need for bold political decisions by members of the euro zone than it does on the ECB's new powers to bolster financially struggling countries.  She spoke after the ECB decided on a broad policy of buying the bonds of economically troubled European govs to ease their borrowing costs.  The head of Germany's central bank was opposed to the ECB move, but Merkel was open to the plan as long as the nations benefiting agreed to strict economic reforms - a condition the ECB adopted.  Merkel says the ECB made it clear "the future of the € will be decided fundamentally by political action, and that conditionality is a very important point."  She recognized that bailout money has its limits on solving euro debt problems. 

Merkel: Euro fate tied to political will, not ECB AP


Markets have a lot to digest over the weekend.  The bulls are praying Big Ben will bail them out once again.  But even if he does, it's not clear how much good it will do.  The Federal Reserve has already done a lot, followed by an economy that is slipping & sliding into a recession.  But today's jobs report was so bad, he may feel compelled to do something.  The big question is, What?  Euro remains a mystery.  The new bailout program requires a country to request funds, which can get tricky.  But the markets like the idea with the € is at near term highs & risky gov bonds have been rising.  Dow continues near 4 years highs, above 13K.

Dow Jones Industrials


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Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Markets retreat when Bernanke testimony disappoints

Dow eased back 43, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ was off 14.  The Financial Index lost 1 to the 196s.  The MLP index was up a fraction to 396, another 10 week high, & the REIT index slipped a fraction in the 267s (its' yearly high).  Junk bond funds edged lower & Treasuries also pulled back.  Oil & gold moved little today. 

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.092%

U.S. 2-year

0.238%

U.S. 10-year

1.489%

CLQ12.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 12...88.92 ...Up 0.49 (0.6%)

GCN12.CMX...Gold Jul 12.......1,587.70 ....Down 3.50  (0.2%)



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Intl demand for US financial assets rose in May as investors sought shelter from the European debt mess.  Net buying of long-term equities, notes & bonds totaled $55B during the month (a bad month for the stock market), compared with net purchases of $27B in Apr according to the Treasury Dept.  Projections were for net buying of $41B.  Including short-term securities such as stock swaps, foreigners bought a net $101B in May, compared with net selling of $8.2B in Apr.  US assets have maintained their attraction as EU leaders grapple with a financial crisis that has pushed up Italian borrowing costs while the euro area bails out Spanish banks. China's growth slowed for a 6th qtr to the weakest pace since the global financial crisis, while the IMF said the world economy will increase 3.9% next year, down from 4.1% projected in Apr.  Foreign buying of securities has likely continued strong, helping markets rebound in the last month.

International Demand for U.S. Assets Rises on Europe Crisis


U.S. Industrial Production Increases in Sign of Resilience

Photo:   Bloomberg

US industrial production rose in Jun as factories made more cars, machines & business equipment.  Factory output recovered to levels reached earlier this spring but appears to be leveling off.  The Federal Reserve (FED) says factory output rose 0.7% last month, after falling by the same amount in May.  Factories produced more machines & vehicles used by businesses.  Auto production rebounded after its first decline of the year.  Factories are a crucial contributor to economic expansion & their strong results in Jun follow a period of shaky growth when factory output fell in 2 of the past 4 months.  The FED says factory growth in Q2 slowed to an annual rate of 1.4%, after leaping 9.8% in Q1.  Hiring by manufacturers also slowed in recent months.  Better news but the economic recovery remains iffy.

Industrial Production in U.S. Rises in Sign of Resilienc


Coca-Cola Profit Tops Analysts’ Estimates

Photo:   Bloomberg

The Coca-Cola, a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, net income slipped in Q2, as rising costs for ingredients offset its expansion overseas.  Revenue growth was powered by emerging markets such as India, where volume rose 20%, but was offset by higher costs for ingredients, rising 5% from a year ago, & weakness in Europe where several regions there suffered from economic uncertainty & poor weather.  Its sales volume fell 4%.  In the US, sales volume rose 1%, while a mix of higher prices & a variety of smaller bottles & cans helped lift revenue 5%.  However, volume for its flagship sparkling beverages (Coke & Sprite) fell 2%.  As soda consumption in the US continues to decline, KO has increasingly been looking past its namesake drink for growth.  The company said volume of its still beverages, such as Powerade & Smartwater, rose 8% in Q2.  Its juice brands rose 3%, driven by growth in lower-calorie Minute Maid offerings.  Given the saturated US market, KO is also increasingly pinning its fortunes on intl markets where the ranks of middle-class consumers are multiplying at a rapid clip by establishing an early dominance in foreign markets that could help determine its growth trajectory in the years to come.  Last month, for example, the company said it would accelerate its investment in India to $5B over the next 8 years, more than double the $2B it invested since re-entering the country in 1993.  In Q2, EPS was $1.21, slightly below $1.20 last year (when there were more outstanding shares).  Not including one-time items, EPS was $1.22.  Revenue rose 3% to $13.1B.  Analysts expected EPS of $1.19 on revenue of $12.9B.  The stock rose 46¢ & will be splitting 2-1 shortly.

Coca-Cola Profit Tops Estimates After Higher Pricing

Coca-Cola (KO)


stock chart


Big Ben predicts slow progress on unemployment & offered no hints of easing in his testimony before Congress.  The markets, expecting magical cures for fundamental economic problems, sold off.  Earnings reports will dominate the markets this week.  It looks like we're back to lower earnings that beat estimates are "good enough" for the markets.   Markets remain fragile.

Dow Jones Industrials


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Friday, June 15, 2012

Markets rise on more bailout hopes

Dow gained 65, advancers ahead of decliners 3-2 & NAZ rose 17.  The Financial Index was up a fraction to the 191s, a one month high (barely).  The MLP index fell 1 to the 362s while the REIT index was even in the 251s.  Junk bond funds eased back & Treasuries found strength, bringing the yield on the 10 year Treasury under 1.6%.  Oil & gold hardly budged.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)


stock chart

Treasury Yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.091%

U.S. 2-year

0.282%

U.S. 10-year

1.581%

CLN12.NYM....Crude Oil Jul 12...83.90 ....Down 0.01  (0.0%)

GCM12.CMX...Gold Jun 12.....1,625.90 ...Up 7.50  (0.5%)





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EU Leaders to Call for ‘Further Urgent Measures’ to Aid Growth

EU parliament building
Photo:   Bloomberg

EU leaders will press for new efforts to boost economic growth & improve lending conditions when they meet later in Jun.  I think that means "we'll try harder."  The 27-nation bloc will pursue growth measures at a time when, in the words of ECB President Draghi, “there is no inflation risk in any European country” & the ECB will continue to provide liquidity to the banking system.  Draghi is working with EU leaders on a blueprint for further integration of the 17-nation euro region.  This report will set out building blocks for strengthening the euro area & economic coordination in the broader EU.  “Recent developments” have shown the need to take monetary union “to a further stage,” according to the draft dated Jun 12.  Leaders will call for “more specific building blocks” to link budget & banking policies among the 17 nations that use the €, along with stronger governance of the €.  The heads of state  “will call for further urgent measures aimed at boosting growth and jobs in Europe and enhancing the financing of the economy in the short to medium term.”  These steps include introducing so-called project bonds, making better use of EU infrastructure funds & increasing the capital, & therefore lending power, of the European Investment Bank.  Good luck!

EU Leaders to Call for ‘Further Urgent Measures’ on Growth


  • <p>               German Chancellor Angela Merkel stands behind a window with a reflection of the European flag as she waits for the President of Peru Ollanta Humala at the chancellery in Berlin, Germany, Tuesday, June 12, 2012. Merkel will hold a speech with the title "Germany in Europe - Input for European Cohesion" at an economic council of her ruling Christian Democratic Party Tuesday afternoon. (AP Photo/Markus Schreiber)
Photo:   Yahoo

German Chancellor Merkel has underlined her determination to reject pressure for quick solutions at the G-20 summit, saying Europe must tackle its problems "at the roots" by lowering debt & increasing economic competitiveness.  She said that fueling growth thru more gov spending "will rather increase the problems than decrease them."  She acknowledged that Germany, Europe's biggest economy, will be a focus of attention at next week's G-20 summit in Mexico.  Merkel said: "Germany will not be convinced by all the quick solutions," such as jointly issued eurobonds — favored by French President Francois Hollande & insisted "you can only resolve a crisis of confidence if you tackle things at the roots."  Tough words from a tough & important leader.

Merkel: Germany Won't be Swayed by Quick Fixes


Industrial Production in U.S. Probably Expanded at Slower Pace

Photo:   Bloomberg

US factories produced less in May than Apr, as automakers cut back on output for the first time in 6 months. The report indicates that manufacturing, a key driver of the economic growth, is slowing.  The Federal Reserve said that factory output declined 0.4% last month, after increasing 0.7% in Apr.  Auto production fell 1.5%, the first drop since Nov.  Overall industrial production, which includes mines and utilities, dipped 0.1%, after a solid 1% rise in Apr.  Both mines & utilities increased production.  The production of computers, machinery & aircraft all declined.  The output of appliances also fell, while home electronics was unchanged from Apr.  Automakers ramped up output over the winter, boosting overall factory production when production jumped at an annual rate of 41% in Q1.  Manufacturing, meanwhile, rose nearly 10% on an annual basis in the same period.  Car sales rose sharply earlier this year but slowed in May.  The European financial crisis & slower growth in China, India & other emerging markets is hurting US exports of factory goods.

Industrial Production in U.S. Unexpectedly Dropped in May


The Greek election is the next big event coming out of Europe & nobody has any idea of what will be the result.  But there is a fair chance Greece may take itself out of the Eurozone group of nations.  Meanwhile, all indications are that the US economy will report drab numbers for Q2.  There should be growth, but if the that figure is less than a 2½% annual rate, that will be a big disappointment for the markets.  Dow has recovered 600 from the lows at the start of Jun, making the bulls happy.  But I'm not sure how many more body blows it can absorb.

Dow Jones Industrials


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