Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Markets sell off on increased worries over European debts

Stocks sank at the opening & remained under water all day.  Dow dropped 139 closing near the lows, decliners over advancers 4- & NAZ fell 33.  Bank stocks led the decline with the Financial Index falling almost 3 to the 173s.

The MLP index recovered some of its AM losses to finish down a fraction in the 385s (but remaining near the 390 record).  The REIT index fell 3 to 231 while junk bond funds were mixed to lower (not far from their yearly highs).  Treasuries climbed, pushing the 10- year bond yield down the most in 7 weeks, as investors sought refuge on concern Europe’s fiscal turmoil will undermine the global economic recovery.  Oil went below $100, ending its 7 day rally.  Gold fell, capping the longest slump in over 2 years as Europe’s deepening debt crisis drove commodities & stocks lower. 

AMZ   Alerian MLP Index



DJR   Dow Jones Equity REIT Index




Click below for the latest market update:



Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.005%

U.S. 2-year

0.267%

U.S. 10-year

1.913%

CLG12.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 12...99.52 ...Down 1.82  (1.8%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]





ECB Balance Sheet Increases to Record 2.73 Trillion Euros

Photo:   Bloomberg

The balance sheet of the ECB soared to a record €2.73T ($3.55T) to finance lending to euro-area banks which jumped €214Bs to €879B last week.  The balance sheet increased €239B in the week & was €553B higher than 3 months ago.  The € weakened to its lowest level in almost a year (just above $1.29) as the announcement highlighted risks from Europe’s debt crisis. The ECB last week awarded 523 banks 3-year loans totaling a record €489B to encourage lending to companies & households aimed at preventing a credit shortage.  But so far, banks are parking the money back at the ECB.  Overnight deposits at the central bank increased to an all- time high of €452B yesterday.  This month the ECB cut its benchmark interest rate to 1%, matching a record low, as the debt crisis threatened to engulf Italy &  Spain.  Growth in the 17-nation euro region will slow to just 0.3% next year from about 1.6% this year, the ECB forecast this month.  Easing financial tensions in Italy allowed it to have a successful debt auction today, but that isn't getting attention.  The ECB is & that's not a good sign for the financial markets.



Iran's navy chief warned that his country can easily close the strategic Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, the passageway for a 6th of the world's oil (the 2nd such warning in 2 days).  Yesterday it threatened to close the strait if the West imposes sanctions on Iran's oil shipments.  Iran is concerned that the West is about to impose new sanctions that could target Tehran's oil industry & exports.  Western nations are growing increasingly impatient with Iran over its nuclear program. The US & its allies have accused Iran of using its civilian nuclear program as a cover to develop nuclear weapons.  With concern growing over a possible drop-off in Iranian oil supplies, a senior Saudi oil official said Gulf Arab nations are ready to step in if necessary & offset any potential loss of Iranian crude.  However, that oil would have to go thru the straits.  Iran is the 2nd largest OPEC oil producer, with an output of about 4M barrels a day & relies on oil exports for about 80% of its revenues.  This is another touchy story which the markets are watching closely. 

Iran warns of closing strategic Hormuz oil route AP


Intl tensions are getting more attention by investors.  The ECB story is being talked about along with oil shipments thru the gulf.  The US navy is trying to reassure the world that the Gulf will remain open.  This should be a quiet week for the markets, with an upward bias.  Fund managers like to buy stocks to raise their portfolio values for the year end balance sheets.   But that isn't working out.  Dow is up 600 (5%) YTD, but the S&P 500, which gets more attention, is down 7 (about ½%).  There may a fair amount of excitement in the last 2 trading days of 2011.

Dow Jones Industrial Average




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Dow retreats from a 5 month high

Dow fell 86, decliners over advancers 4-1 & NAZ dropped 23.  Bank stocks led the selling, taking the Financial Index down 1+ to the 174s.  All this is on light volume.

The MLP index fell back 2½ to the 383s, but remains within spitting distance of the 390 record.  The REIT index fell 2 to 232 but junk bond funds were higher.  Treasuries gained, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury bond below 2%. Oil fell for the first time in 7 days on reduced concern that Iran will block the Strait of Hormuz.  Gold, under $1600, keeps drifting lower.

AMZ  Alerian MLP Index



DJR   Dow Jones Equity REIT Index



Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.015%

U.S. 2-year

0.282%

U.S. 10-year

1.951%

CLG12.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 12...100.60 ...Down 0.74  (0.7%)

GCZ11.CMX...Gold Dec 11.......1,588.60 ...Down 5.60  (0.4%)

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Strong demand for Italian gov debt pushed the country's borrowing costs lower & suggested investors have become less jittery about a possible default.  Italy raised €10.7B ($14B) in a pair of auctions at sharply lower rates than those it was forced to pay just a month ago when investor concerns over the ability of the country to service its massive debts became particularly acute.  The sharp decline in borrowing costs could be a signal that commercial banks from the 17 countries that use the € diverted some of the money they tapped from emergency loans from the ECB last week to buy the bonds of heavily indebted govs.  It may also suggest rising investor confidence in Italy's recent efforts to reduce its long-term debt through a variety of austerity measures.  The average yield on the €9B ($11.8B) 6-month bill was 3.251%, half the 6.504% rate last month.  An auction of 2-year bonds, which raised €1.7B ($2.2B), also saw the yield fall to 4.853% from 7.814% last month.  Italy's benchmark 10-year bond yield in the markets consolidated below the 7%t level, which is widely considered to be unsustainable in the long-run.  This auction was considered encouraging, suggesting that the Italian sovereign debt market has pulled back from the dangerous situation last month.

Italy’s Borrowing Costs Decline at Auction After Government Agrees on Cuts


There is a cost for increased lending to European banks.  German stocks fell as the ECB's balance sheet expanded to a record after it lent financial institution more money last week.  Lending to euro-area banks jumped €214B ($280B) to €879B last week.  Its balance sheet increased €239B to €2.73B.  Excessive borrowing is at the root of all the sovereign debt problems.

German Stocks Fall as ECB Balance Sheet Rises to Record on Loans


  • <p>               FILE - In this Dec. 24, 2011 file photo, a last-minute shopper leaves the Toys R Us flagship store in New York's Times Square. A mall trade group said Wednesday, Dec. 28, 2011, that last minute shoppers gave merchants a solid lift during the final week before Christmas. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer, File)
Photo:   Yahoo

Last-minute shoppers gave merchants a solid lift during the final week before Christmas. Retail sales rose 4.5% at stores open at least a year for the week ended Sat compared with the same week last year, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers Index.  Gift buyers gained steam in as the season went on.  The store revenue figure rose 0.9% last week from the week before, building on a 3.4% increase the week before that.  The index seeks to estimate sales at 24 major stores.  For the week ended Nov 26, which included the traditional start of the holiday shopping season, stores had the biggest sales surge from the week before since 1993.  The 2 weeks after that showed the biggest percentage decline since 2000.  During the final 2 weeks before Christmas however, sales surged again, by the highest rate since 2005. Stores are expected to benefit when shoppers come back to spend their gift cards, because people often spend more than the cards' value.

U.S. Retail Sales Rose 4.5% Before Christmas


The improved Italian debt auction should have given the markets a lift, but not today.  It's tough to make much of any moves this week with light volume.  Profit taking for MLPs blunted to take the index to a new record high.  Their basics are stable but growing.  Buyers are attracted by high yields in a low yield environment & the tax favored status.  Dow bounced off its interim high & the wishy washy ceiling of roughly 12.2K is holding.  Dow is up 600+ YTD but the S&P 500 is off 3. 

Dow Jones Industrial Average


S&P 500 Index











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Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Markets vacillate on mixed economic news

Stocks hardly moved in light trading.  Dow slipped 2, advancers barely ahead of decliners & NAZ also gained 6.  Bank stocks were weak as the Financial Index has been lumbering along since its sell-off in Aug.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value176.34One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change   - 1.21     (-0.7%)

The MLP index rose 1½ to 386, 4 below its record highs reached 8 months ago, & the REIT index was up 1+ to 234 (below its yearly high of 253).  Junk bond funds rose as did Treasuries.  The price of oil climbed above $101 a barrel on growing U.S. consumer confidence & tension in the Middle East.  Gold kept sliding, but the yearly chart below shows it has done well  -  up 15% YTD.

ALERIAN MLP Index (^AMZ)



DJ REIT INDEXDJR (^DJR)




Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.005%

U.S. 2-year

0.290%

U.S. 10-year

2.012%

CLG12.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 12...101.24 Up 1.56  (1.6%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Every day of the year, the gov has to borrow an additional $4B to keep going.  As a result, the president will ask Congress to raise the debt ceiling another $1.2T,  enough to get the gov thru most of next year.  This comes in line with the deal struck during the summer, authorizing a phased increase of the debt ceiling by up to $2.4T, with $400B of that kicking in immediately & another $500B coming in Sep.  This request would increase the debt limit from its current level of roughly $15.2T to $16.4T.  The gov is expected to come within $100B of the current limit by the end of this week. 

Obama to Seek $1.2 Trillion Increase in U.S. Debt Limit Dec. 30


Oil Extends Longest Rally Since 2010

Photo:   Bloomberg

Oil capped its longest rally in more than a year as Iran threatened to block transportation thru the Strait of Hormuz & confidence among US consumers beat expectations in Dec. Crude rose to the highest level in 6 weeks after Iran’s official Islamic Republic News Agency said the country would bar shipments through the strait if sanctions are imposed on its oil exports.  About 15½M barrels of oil a day (a 6th of global consumption) passes thru the Strait of Hormuz between Iran & Oman at the mouth of the Persian Gulf.  Oil was higher on one of the year’s slowest trading days as many traders are away on holiday.

Oil Extends Longest Rally Since 2010


After crashing 50% in 2008 & enduring another brutal 30% decline in 2011, Dick Bove, a prominent financial sector analyst, is sticking with his picks.  "2012 has every indication for being a gangbuster year in terms of earnings, market share, loan growth, deposit inflows, liquidity, capital growth," Bove said.  He says the process has already begun with European lenders selling packages of loans, credit card portfolios & even entire business units to their rivals in the US.  He is expecting to see continued improvement in trends, including the domestic economy & banking industry earnings that are at 4½ year highs, have risen for 9 consecutive qtrs, and "aren't as dirty (or cluttered with charges) as you think."  Explaining his past bullish calls, Bove offered an explanation for his erroneous "buy" calls this year:  "I failed to understand that the fears in the market concerning banking were so great that the fundamental improvements in the economy, the industry, and companies like Bank of America and Citigroup would simply be ignored."  The very brave might want to think about his predictions for 2012.




  • In a sluggish pre & post holiday period, there is not a lot going on in the markets.  The consumer confidence data sounds good, but that is fluid & can change quickly.  Hearing about Sears closing store is disturbing.  Some of its problems relate to self inflicted wounds, but early indications are that holiday shopping was only so-so.  It looks like retailers are pressing harder for sales, not a good to see when the economy is supposed to be doing well.   For what it's worth, Dow is up 700 YTD, better than other popular averages.

    Dow Jones Industrial Average




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    Sideways markets after better than expected consumer confidence data

    Markets were essentially even.  Dow & NAZ were flat while decliners slightly beat advancers.  The Financial Index was down pennies in the 177s.

    The MLP & REIT indices were little changed but junk bond funds edged higher & Treasuries slipped a tad.  Oil rose to a 2-week high, over $100, after confidence among US consumers beat expectations in Dec, bolstering the outlook for fuel demand.  Gold fell below $1600.

    AMZ   Alerian MLP Index



    DJR   Dow Jones Equity REIT Index



    Treasury yields:


    U.S. 3-month

    0.005%

    U.S. 2-year

    0.286%

    U.S. 10-year

    2.024%

    CLG12.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 12...100.36 ...Up 0.68  (0.7%)

    GCZ11.CMX...Gold Dec 11.......1,598.10 ....Down 6.60  (0.4%)


    Get the latest market update below:



    Consumer Confidence in U.S. Rose More Than Forecast

    Photo:   Bloomberg

    Confidence among US consumers rose in Dec to the highest level in 8 months.  The Conference Board’s index increased to 64.5, exceeding all estimates & the highest since Apr, from a revised 55.2 reading in Nov.  The measure averaged 53.7 during the recession that ended in 2009.  Unemployment that dropped last month to its lowest in more than 2 years & the lowest price for gasoline since Feb are prompting households to take advantage of discounts during the holiday shopping season.  The improvement in sentiment could help sustain household purchases, which account for about 70% of the economy, into the new year.

    Consumer Confidence Rose More Than Forecast


    Sears to Close as Many as 120 Stores

    Photo:   Bloomberg

    Sears plans to close 100-120 Kmart & Sears full-line stores & expects its adjusted Q4 EBITDA to drop more than halve from a year ago.  The company reported $933M in adjusted Q4 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, & amortization last year.  The retailer expects to earn $140-$170M by selling off inventory in affected stores & selling or subleasing store space.  The company also expects store closure & inventory reduction to lower peak inventory in 2012 by $500-$580M.  Sears also expects to record a non-cash charge of $1.6-$1.8B in Q4 related to a valuation allowance on certain deferred tax assets.  For the qtr-to-date, same-store sales at its Kmart unit dropped 4.4% & Sears Domestic comparable sales fell 6%.  The retailer is a victim of the economy, aggressive competition & its own reputation for run-down locations & poor customer service.  The stock sank $9.20 (20%) on the news.

    Sears Plunges on Plans to Close as Many as 120 Stores

    SHLD   Sears Holdings

    stock chart


    U.S. Stores Ramp Up Bargains as Sales Growth Lags 2010

    Photo:   Bloomberg

    Many consumers across the US took advantage of discounts on the day after Christmas, which this year was a holiday & a potential boon to retailers aiming for a strong finish to the shopping season.  Holiday sales will rise 3.8%, compared with a 5.2% advance last year, according to the National Retail Federation.  Sagging home prices & high unemployment continue to weigh on US.  Personal spending climbed only 0.1% last month, less than the median 0.3% gain projected.  Wages & salaries fell 0.1% from Oct.  Retailers continued to discount & keep stores open longer than ever.   While the discounts may help move the merchandise, they also could squeeze profit margins.

    Bargains On Offer From Kohl’s to Target as Sales Growth Lags 2010: Retail


    Many traders are away.  Today & the rest of the short week should feature little excitement in the markets.  The SHLD news was disappointing, although not unexpected.  Combined with the sluggish retail sales elsewhere does not send good signals for the markets.  Dow broke thru 12K, although not with conviction & now it's stuck again.  I view it as a flexible 12.2K ceiling that is holding & may continue to hold for the rest of the week.

    Dow Jones Industrial Average







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