Showing posts with label retail sales. Show all posts
Showing posts with label retail sales. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Modest gains for markets ahead of FOMC announcement

Dow, trading barely in the black all day, finished up 9, advancers ahead of decliners 3-2 & NAZ was up 9 (helped by Apple).  The Financial Index rose 1 to the 211s. The MLP index climbed 2 to the 397s, but continues in its longer term sideways trading range, & the REIT index was up a fraction to 270, just under its yearly high.  Junk bond funds were higher but the 10 year Treasury bond extended its 3 week price decline.  Oil was flattish after 5 straight up days when an Energy Dept report showed an unexpected increase in US crude inventories.  Gold slipped a tad but continues to have a strong chart (shown below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.097%

U.S. 2-year

0.242%

U.S. 10-year

1.763%


CLV12.NYMCrude Oil Oct 1297.07 Down 0.10 (0.1%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]



  • <p>               Phil Schiller, Apple's senior vice president of worldwide marketing, speaks on stage during an introduction of the new iPhone 5 at an Apple event in San Francisco, Wednesday Sept. 12, 2012. (AP Photo/Eric Risberg)
Photo:   Yahoo

Apple revealed that the new iPhone 5 will be in stores in the US & several other countries (Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore & the UK) on Sep 21.  A week later, the phone will be available in 22 more countries, including Italy, Poland & Spain.  The phone is thinner & ligher than the iPhone 4S, yet has a taller screen, as expected.  That means another row of icons will fit on the screen, but the phone isn't wider or taller than its predecessors.  The iPhone 5 is the year's most eagerly awaited phone launch, & tens of Ms are expected to be sold before the year is out.  The phone will cost the same as the iPhone 4S did when it debuted, starting at $199 with a 2-year contract in the US.  Meanwhile, the price for the iPhone 4S will drop to $99 for new contract signers, & the iPhone 4 will be free.  The iPhone 5 will come with the capability to connect to the fastest new wireless data networks in the US & overseas.  Some competing phones in the US have had this ability for over a year.  The bigger screen moves the iPhone somewhat closer to competing smartphones, but the it's still small compared to its main rivals.  Samsung, Apple's biggest competitor, has increased the screen size of its flagship phone line every year, & it's now 4.8" on the diagonal, about 45% larger than the one on the new iPhone.  But the new iPhone is lighter than Samsung's new Galaxy S III.  With the new model, AAPL is ditching the connection port it's used for iPods, iPhones & iPads for nearly a decade in favor of a smaller, narrower one.  That means AAPL is still the holdout in an industry where other manufacturers have settled on a standard connector for charging & computer backups.  AAPL stock added 5.

Apple Unveils IPhone 5 to Extend Lead in Smartphone Market

Apple (AAPL)


stock chart


Inventories at US wholesalers rose in Jul by the most in 5 months as sales fell, indicating production may cool.  The 0.7% increase in stockpiles followed a 0.2% drop in the prior month according to the Commerce Dept.  The forecast called for a 0.3% Jul gain.  Sales declined 0.1%, the 3rd straight decrease.  At the current pace of sales, wholesalers had enough goods on hand to last 1.21 months, the most since Nov 2009.  A global slowdown & looming US tax & gov spending changes may prompt companies to temper orders to factories as they work off any unintended build-up of stockpiles.  Businesses trying to keep stockpiles in line with demand include Deere (DE), the world’s largest maker of agricultural equipment, which last monthi cut its full-year profit forecast as sales slowed.  “The sales shortfall is reflected in higher inventories in the third quarter and at year-end,” James Field, president of the company’s agriculture & turf unit, said.  “Actions have been taken to manage the inventories.”  Wholesalers’ stockpiles of durable goods, or those meant to last several years, increased 0.7%, boosted by machinery, computers, lumber & automobiles.  Sales of big-ticket items dropped 0.8% after a 0.9% decrease.  The value of unsold non-durable goods also rose 0.7% as sales climbed 0.5%.  This report is also being assessed by the FOMC as it meets.

Wholesale Inventories in U.S. Climb 0.7%, More Than Forecast


Holiday retail sales in the US may rise 3.3% as more confident consumers increase their trips to the mall, according to researcher ShopperTrak.  Store visits during the busiest shopping period of the year are expected to rise 2.8% after declining last November & December.  Sales gained 3.7% during the same period in 2011.  The projected increase in store traffic would be the first gain since 2007 & offers retailers a chance to drive more impulse purchases & convert shoppers who aren’t regular customers into buyers, Bill Martin, CEO of ShopperTrak, said.  “Consumers are feeling more comfortable, and now they are taking their time and going to a few more stores,” Martin said.  Retailers offering quality in-store experiences & service should have an opportunity to boost sales, he said.  The forecast comes after sales during the back-to-school shopping season rose more than expected.  Excluding drugstores, same-store sales in Aug advanced 5.9%, topping estimates for a 4.2% increase, according to Swampscott.  Foot traffic rose 11% last month, according to ShopperTrak.  The holiday shopping season, which accounts for 20% of annual retail activity, will be helped by a shift in the calendar.  There is a full weekend of shopping before Christmas, which falls on a Tues compared with Sun last year, & Hanukkah beginning on Dec 8, after starting on Dec 20 last year, will also boost sales.

U.S. Holiday Sales to Rise on First Store Visit Gain Since 2007


Stocks were not overly impressed by the German court approving euro bailouts & the AAPL event.  While markets rose, the gains were hardly impressive.  Attention will be focused on the FOMC meeting & its announcement tomorrow.  With a variety of stimulus measures already discounted, there is not much room left for a pleasant surprise.  Disappointment will bring selling.  Dow remains 70 below its yearly high.

Dow Jones Industrials


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Thursday, August 30, 2012

Markets fall on a worsening euro debt crisis

Dow droppesd 106, decliners led advancers 5-2 & NAZ was off 32.  The Financial Index slid 1 to the 202s.  The MLP & REIT indices were each off fractionally, junk bond funds inched higher (still near multi year highs) & Treasuries gained.  Oil fell on profit taking after there was less damage than feared done by the tropical storm.  Gold declined for a 3rd day as investors weighed whether the Federal Reserve will signal a new round of measures to boost the economy tomorrow & as Spain said it will delay a decision on seeking aid.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart




Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.091%

U.S. 2-year

0.254%

U.S. 10-year

1.615%

CLV12.NYMCrude Oil Oct 1294.46 Down 1.03 (1.1%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




  • <p>               FILE- This Wednesday, Sept. 28, 2011 file photo shows the Kindle Fire  at a news conference in New York. Amazon.com Inc. quenched the Kindle Fire on Thursday, Aug. 30, 2012, saying its first tablet computer is now sold out. The Internet retailer has a major press conference scheduled for next Thursday in Santa Monica, Calif. It's widely expected to reveal a new model of the Fire there. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan, FILE)
Photo:   Bloomberg

Amazon has sold out of its Kindle Fire tablet computer amid expectations of a new model for the holiday season.  AMZN has a major press conference scheduled for next Thurs & is widely expected to reveal a new model of the Fire, so the announcement that the first model is "sold out" suggests that AMZN halted production a while ago to retool for a new model.  The $199 tablet was launched last Nov & was the first Kindle with a color screen & the ability to run 3rd-party applications, placing it in competition with the iPad, at half the price of the cheapest model.  It is said that it captured 22% of US tablet sales over 9 months, making it the 2nd-most popular tablet (after the iPad).  But the Fire, about half the size of the iPad, could face a tougher challenge this holiday season when many expect Apple (AAPL) to introduce a smaller & cheaper iPad, aimed at reaching buyers who can't afford a full-sized iPad.  In addition, Google (GOOG) just launched its own Kindle-sized tablet, the Nexus 7, & it's selling for $199.  AMZN could update the rest of its Kindle line at next week's event, too.  The current models were launched a year ago.  The high priced stock fell $1.

Amazon Kindle Fire sold out as new model expected AP

Amazon (AMZN)


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US. mortgages rates fell for the first time in 5 weeks, lowering borrowing costs amid signs of a real estate recovery.  The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 3.59% last week from 3.66%, according to Freddie Mac.  The average 15-year rate was 2.86%, down from 2.89%.  Interest rates close to record lows are helping spur demand as buyers compete for a dwindling supply of properties.  Pending US home resales climbed 2.4% in Jul, more than double the forecast & the S&P/Case-Shiller index of prices in 20 cities climbed in Jun from a year earlier, the first such gain since Sep 2010.  The average rate for a 30-year loan reached a record-low of 3.49% a month ago.

Mortgage Rates in U.S. Decline for the First Time in Five Weeks


  • <p>               In this Wednesday, Aug. 22, 2012, photo, shoppers at a Target store in Chicago check the receipts of their purchases. Americans kept spending in August despite their escalating fears about the slow economic recovery and surging gas prices. A range of retailers from discounter Target to club-operator Costco on Thursday, Aug. 30, 2012,  reported August sales that beat Wall Street estimates. The results seem to show that what Americans do and say are two different things: The strong sales reports come a day after a private research firm said consumer confidence in August fell to its lowest level since November 2011. (AP Photo/Sitthixay Ditthavong)
Photo:   Yahoo

This summer, Americans were walking contradictions as they opened wallets despite escalating fears about the slow economic recovery & surging gas prices.  A group of 18 retailers reported Aug sales that rose 6%, the industry best performance since Mar, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.  At the same time, the gov released numbers showing that Americans spent in Jul at the fastest clip in 5 months.  The news appears to show that what Americans say & do are 2 different things (in 2 different months).  The reports come shortly after a research firm said consumer confidence in Aug fell to its lowest level since Nov 2011 as Americans grew more concerned about the job market, business conditions & the overall economy.  That consumers are spending is an encouraging sign, but that they are doing so hesitantly is something retailers will be watching closely.  While this is only a small group of merchants representing 13% of the $2.4T industry, the Aug numbers still offer a glimpse on spending habits.  The revenue gains are better than the 4-5% increase predicted at the beginning of the month & was the industry's best performance since Mar, when stores collectively posted a gain of 6.8%.  Except for a lull in Jun, stores have seen a healthy pace of 4% to nearly 7% growth since this year.

Retailers report best sales growth since March A


There was some buying in the PM, but not enough to lift the averages into the black.  Volume was light.  In Europe, Mario Draghi seems to be more on defense after his recent comments about doing anything to save the €.  But in America eyes are looking west to Jackson Hole, hoping Big Ben will utter magical words tomorrow.  Many see no great urgency in an announcement which can be put on hold until the FOMC meeting in early Sep.  Dow was able to hold above 13K, just barely.

Dow Jones Industrials


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Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Markets advance on stronger retail slaes

Dow was up 27, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ rose 8 (helped by a good day for Apple).  The Financial Index gained 1 to 202.   The MLP index was up a fraction to 390 while the REIT slipped pocket change in the 262s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries pulled back.  Oil gained but gold fell back below $1600.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.102%

U.S. 2-year

0.269%

U.S. 10-year

1.710%

CLU12.NYM....Crude Oil Sep 12...93.41 ....Up 0.68  (0.7%)

GCQ12.CMX...Gold Aug 12.....1,596.30 ...Down 13.30  (0.8%)



Get the latest daily market update below:



The euro-area economy shrank in Q2 after the worsening debt crisis & tougher budget cuts forced at least 6 nations into recessions.  GDP in the 17-nation bloc fell 0.2% from Q1, when it stagnated, the EU statistics office said.  That’s in line with the estimate.  The contraction was softened by stronger-than- forecast growth in Germany, the largest economy.  Europe's slump is deepening as govs struggle to restore investor confidence & companies eliminate jobs.  While Germany’s economy helped support the region in H1, surveys are weakening, with a gauge of investor confidence dropping in Aug.  The Bank of Japan just cited the € turmoil among risks to its economy.  Q2 expansion in Germany compared with a forecast for growth of 0.2%.  While France's economy stalled for a 3rd straight qtr, that was also better than the 0.1% contraction predicted.  Italy’s economy contracted for a 4th straight qtr, shrinking 0.7%.  In Spain, which received external aid earlier this year, GDP dropped 0.4% from Q1, when it fell 0.3%.  Portugal's economy contracted 1.2% & Cyprus also remained in a recession.  Dismal data is sending negative signals to stock markets.

Euro-Area Economic Output Contracted on Spain: Economy


U.S. Retail Sales Beat Projections; PPI Rises

Photo:   Bloomberg

Americans boosted spending at retail businesses in Jul by the largest amount in 5 months which could help lift the economy out from its slump.  Retail sales rose 0.8% from Jun, the Commerce Dept reported.  It was the largest increase since Feb & followed 3 months of declines, including a 0.7% drop in Jun.  All major categories rose. Auto purchases increased 0.8%.  Consumers also boosted spending on furniture, electronics, building materials & sporting goods.  The economy has shown some modest improvement in Jul.  Employers added 163K jobs, the best month for job growth since Feb.  Stock indexes are near their highs for the year.  And consumer confidence rose for the first time in 5 months.  But a better outlook for the economy could make the Federal Reserve hesitant to take further action to boost growth when it meets in Sep.  Still, the overall economy remains weak, growing at an annual rate of 1.5% in Q2.  That's not enough to lower the unemployment rate, which ticked up to 8.3%.

Retail Sales in U.S. Increased More Than Forecast in July


Apple extended its dominance in tablets, shipping 2/3 of tablets in Q2, according to research firm IHS iSuppli.  A new model came out a few weeks before Q2 began.  A challenger, the Nexus 7 from Google (GOOG), didn't start shipping until Q3.  The 69.6% share is up from about 58% in Q1 & is the highest since the Q1 last year, when AAPL had 70% share (with fewer competitors).  Here are the top 5 manufacturers of tablets in Q2, as released by HIS iSuppli:

Apple, 17M shipped worldwide, 69.6% share
Samsung Electronics, maker of Galaxy line, 2.3M, 9.2%.
Amazon.com(AMZN), maker of Kindle Fire, 1M, 4.2%
AsusTek Computer, maker of Transformer line, 688K, 2.8%
Barnes & Noble (BKS)., maker of Nook Tablet, 459K, 1.9%
Others, 3M, 12.3%

AAPL stock rose 4.70 on the news (10 below its record high).

Apple’s IPad Shipments, Market Share Surge, IHS Reports

Apple (AAPL)


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Once again there is not a lot going on in the markets.  Much of Europe is on vacation, limiting the dreary news from that region.  Retail sales were encouraging, although stronger economic data suggests the Federal Reserve may not take further stimulus action.  Dow is inching forward, but at this rate it's going be a long time before before taking out its 2012 high.

Dow Jones Industrials


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