Showing posts with label mortgage rates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label mortgage rates. Show all posts

Thursday, August 30, 2012

Markets fall on a worsening euro debt crisis

Dow droppesd 106, decliners led advancers 5-2 & NAZ was off 32.  The Financial Index slid 1 to the 202s.  The MLP & REIT indices were each off fractionally, junk bond funds inched higher (still near multi year highs) & Treasuries gained.  Oil fell on profit taking after there was less damage than feared done by the tropical storm.  Gold declined for a 3rd day as investors weighed whether the Federal Reserve will signal a new round of measures to boost the economy tomorrow & as Spain said it will delay a decision on seeking aid.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.091%

U.S. 2-year

0.254%

U.S. 10-year

1.615%

CLV12.NYMCrude Oil Oct 1294.46 Down 1.03 (1.1%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




  • <p>               FILE- This Wednesday, Sept. 28, 2011 file photo shows the Kindle Fire  at a news conference in New York. Amazon.com Inc. quenched the Kindle Fire on Thursday, Aug. 30, 2012, saying its first tablet computer is now sold out. The Internet retailer has a major press conference scheduled for next Thursday in Santa Monica, Calif. It's widely expected to reveal a new model of the Fire there. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan, FILE)
Photo:   Bloomberg

Amazon has sold out of its Kindle Fire tablet computer amid expectations of a new model for the holiday season.  AMZN has a major press conference scheduled for next Thurs & is widely expected to reveal a new model of the Fire, so the announcement that the first model is "sold out" suggests that AMZN halted production a while ago to retool for a new model.  The $199 tablet was launched last Nov & was the first Kindle with a color screen & the ability to run 3rd-party applications, placing it in competition with the iPad, at half the price of the cheapest model.  It is said that it captured 22% of US tablet sales over 9 months, making it the 2nd-most popular tablet (after the iPad).  But the Fire, about half the size of the iPad, could face a tougher challenge this holiday season when many expect Apple (AAPL) to introduce a smaller & cheaper iPad, aimed at reaching buyers who can't afford a full-sized iPad.  In addition, Google (GOOG) just launched its own Kindle-sized tablet, the Nexus 7, & it's selling for $199.  AMZN could update the rest of its Kindle line at next week's event, too.  The current models were launched a year ago.  The high priced stock fell $1.

Amazon Kindle Fire sold out as new model expected AP

Amazon (AMZN)


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US. mortgages rates fell for the first time in 5 weeks, lowering borrowing costs amid signs of a real estate recovery.  The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 3.59% last week from 3.66%, according to Freddie Mac.  The average 15-year rate was 2.86%, down from 2.89%.  Interest rates close to record lows are helping spur demand as buyers compete for a dwindling supply of properties.  Pending US home resales climbed 2.4% in Jul, more than double the forecast & the S&P/Case-Shiller index of prices in 20 cities climbed in Jun from a year earlier, the first such gain since Sep 2010.  The average rate for a 30-year loan reached a record-low of 3.49% a month ago.

Mortgage Rates in U.S. Decline for the First Time in Five Weeks


  • <p>               In this Wednesday, Aug. 22, 2012, photo, shoppers at a Target store in Chicago check the receipts of their purchases. Americans kept spending in August despite their escalating fears about the slow economic recovery and surging gas prices. A range of retailers from discounter Target to club-operator Costco on Thursday, Aug. 30, 2012,  reported August sales that beat Wall Street estimates. The results seem to show that what Americans do and say are two different things: The strong sales reports come a day after a private research firm said consumer confidence in August fell to its lowest level since November 2011. (AP Photo/Sitthixay Ditthavong)
Photo:   Yahoo

This summer, Americans were walking contradictions as they opened wallets despite escalating fears about the slow economic recovery & surging gas prices.  A group of 18 retailers reported Aug sales that rose 6%, the industry best performance since Mar, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.  At the same time, the gov released numbers showing that Americans spent in Jul at the fastest clip in 5 months.  The news appears to show that what Americans say & do are 2 different things (in 2 different months).  The reports come shortly after a research firm said consumer confidence in Aug fell to its lowest level since Nov 2011 as Americans grew more concerned about the job market, business conditions & the overall economy.  That consumers are spending is an encouraging sign, but that they are doing so hesitantly is something retailers will be watching closely.  While this is only a small group of merchants representing 13% of the $2.4T industry, the Aug numbers still offer a glimpse on spending habits.  The revenue gains are better than the 4-5% increase predicted at the beginning of the month & was the industry's best performance since Mar, when stores collectively posted a gain of 6.8%.  Except for a lull in Jun, stores have seen a healthy pace of 4% to nearly 7% growth since this year.

Retailers report best sales growth since March A


There was some buying in the PM, but not enough to lift the averages into the black.  Volume was light.  In Europe, Mario Draghi seems to be more on defense after his recent comments about doing anything to save the €.  But in America eyes are looking west to Jackson Hole, hoping Big Ben will utter magical words tomorrow.  Many see no great urgency in an announcement which can be put on hold until the FOMC meeting in early Sep.  Dow was able to hold above 13K, just barely.

Dow Jones Industrials


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Thursday, June 28, 2012

Late day buying pares market losses

Strong buying going into the close reduced losses.  Dow finished down 24, advancers over decliners 5-4 & NAZ was off 25.  Bank stocks led the recovery, reducing the loss for the Financial Index to a fraction in the 192s.  It had been down more than 3 at midday.

The MLP index rebounded 1+ to 370 & the REIT index rose 2 to 255.  Junk bond funds were petty much even but Treasuries rose, bringing lower yields.  Oil fell to an 8-month low as applications for unemployment benefits remain near the highest level of 2012, indicating that fewer commuters will need fuel to get to work.  Gold slumped 24, back to the mid $1500s & close to yearly lows.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


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Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.081%

U.S. 2-year

0.301%

U.S. 10-year

1.572%


CLQ12.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 12...77.59 T...Down 2.62  (3.3%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Chancellor Angela Merkel

Photo:   Bloomberg

The EU focused on immediate help for Spain & Itlay at the start of a 2-day summit intended to chart a path out of their financial crisis.  The financial ministers of 27 govs will discuss buying Spanish & Italian gov bonds to bring down borrowing costs that are near euro-era records.  Finland is also proposing that bailout funds buy collateralized gov debt in primary markets.  “I’ve come for very rapid solutions to support countries in difficulty on the markets,” French President Hollande said.  Without specifying Spain or Italy, he said they “have made considerable efforts to deal with their public accounts.”  Leaders will consider short-term measures to stem the sovereign debt turmoil as the EU plans to strengthen the bloc’s common currency & financial oversight ran into immediate opposition from Chancellor Merkel who has become increasingly isolated as other ministers push for quicker action to ease the crisis that emerged in Greece in late 2009.  Italy needs to be able to pool debt sales with the 16 other nations   “I don’t think that anything more can be done, because otherwise you kill the economy,” Prodi, Italy’s prime minister from 2006-2008, said. “European solidarity, which must come to euro bonds, is the only possible solution.”  Today Italy paid the most to sell 10-year debt (6.19%) since Dec.  Spanish 10- year yields rose to 6.94%.  Merkel, who has rejected calls to investigate joint debt or do more to cut Spanish & Italian borrowing costs, said her focus will be on measures to boost economic growth.   It looks like nobody is in charge, so it will be hard to accomplish anything (besides a lot of talk).

EU Chiefs Put Bond Buying on Table as Crisis Summit Opens


IMF May Consider Greek Loan Changes After Team Visit Next Week

Photo:   Bloomberg

The IMF is open to adjusting the terms of a Greek bailout & will send a team to Greece next week to meet with the new gov.  IMF officials will join officials from the European Commission & the ECB at the meetings.  The IMF also said a separate "negotiating team" from the fund will then visit Greece after the fact-finding visit.to discuss the policies Greece must follow to meet the terms of its bailout.  "If the new government has ideas on how those program objectives can be achieved, we're open to those discussions," an IMF official said.



Mortgage rates in the US were little changed, keeping borrowing costs at the record-low levels that have helped bolster the housing market.  The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage held at 3.66% last week, the lowest in Freddie Mac records dating to 1971.  The average 15-year rate dropped to 2.94%, also a record, from 2.95%.  Low borrowing costs are helping to strengthen housing demand as property prices stabilize.  Contracts to buy previously owned homes rose 5.9% last month, matching a 2-year high.  The S&P/Case Shiller index of values in 20 cities dropped 1.9% in Apr from a year earlier, the smallest decline since Nov 2010.  Purchases of new U.S. houses rose in May to a 2-year high according to the Commerce Dept.  Housing is producing favorable statistics, although a full recovery is still down the road.

Mortgage Rates for 30-Year Fixed Loans in U.S. Hold at Record-Low 3.66%


The € is a good proxy for what's going on in Europe & it's down to $1.24½, close to yearly lows.  JPMorgan (JPM), a Dow stock & used to be the best managed bank, has trouble estimating the loss from its Europe debt mess.  It began at $2B, rose to $9B & now maybe it's not that bad.  Swell!  Other banks may be reporting ugly trading stories when earnings are released in a couple of weeks.  But in the last hour of trading, Dow recovered most of its 200 decline.  Now it's up 200 for Jun, not an impressive recovery from the rough days of May.  Concerns about global banks, a surprise Supreme Court ruling upholding & pessimism about the ability of a European summit to ease the region's debt crisis dominated trading for most of the day.  Those stories are not going away soon. 

Dow Jones Industrials


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Thursday, June 7, 2012

Markets pared early gains

Dow rose 46 (but almost 100 off its AM highs), decliners slightly ahead of advancers & NAZ lost 13.  A strong opening did not last.  The Financial Index slipped a fraction to the 187s. 

The MLP index rested after 2 days of big gains in the 363s.  The index was flat & the REIT index fell 1+ to the 244s.  Junk bond funds inched higher as did Treasuries.  Oil fell after Ben Bernanke said the economy is at risk from Europe’s debt crisis & the prospect of fiscal tightening, tempering optimism over a cut in Chinese interest rates.  Gold pulled back in PM trading for a big loss of $42 (back below $1600). 

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


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Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.076%

U.S. 2-year

0.266%

U.S. 10-year

1.656%

CLN12.NYM...Crude Oil Jul 12...85.14 ...Up 0.12  (0.1%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




  • <p>               A homeless person sleeps in the doorway of a bank in Madrid Thursday June 7, 2012. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy pleaded with European leaders "to support those that are in difficulty" and push toward greater fiscal unity - a step that might allow its troubled banks to get direct financial help. The call comes although Spain insists it doesn't need outside aid. (AP Photo/Paul White)
Photo:    Yahoo

Spain's Prime Minister Rajoy appeared to have abandoned his insistence that the country's troubled banking sector will not need an external bailout, as for the first time he avoided ruling out such an option.  Germany, meanwhile, without mentioning Spain by name, also gave its clearest hint yet that it thinks Spain should tap the European rescue fund before its banks become too toxic to handle.  Rajoy said he would wait for the results of an IMF report next week & then 2 independent audits before announcing how much the banking sector might need for recapitalization.  But for the first time in public, he did not rule out the idea of the money coming from outside.   "At that point I will give my figure and the government will say what the system needs to recapitalize itself," Rajoy said.  German Chancellor Merkel said after meeting with British Prime Minister Cameron: "Considering the problems we are facing today, it is important to highlight once again that we have created the instruments necessary to support (countries) in the Eurozone, and that Germany is willing to apply these instruments whenever necessary."  She added, "this expresses our firm political will to stabilize the Eurozone, so that the Eurozone can contribute to stable economic growth worldwide."  Earlier, Spain raised €2.1B ($2.6B) from the bond markets, at a higher interest rate out of concern that the country's troubled banks were weighing heavily on gov finances.  The successful sale of medium & long-term debt came just days after Finance Minister Montoro warned that the high interest rates demanded by investors on Spanish debt in recent weeks indicated "the door to the markets is not open for Spain."  Spain's banks are saddled with billions in soured property investments.  At the end of May, the most stricken lender, Bankia, said it needed €19B in aid to shore up its finances against losses on its toxic home loans.  But Spain only has €5B left in a €19B fund that it established in 2009.  Estimates have put the cost of a complete bailout for the Spanish banking sector for €40B-€100B.  Fitch cut Spain's long-term credit rating to BBB & left it 2 notches from junk, citing the cost of recapitalizing the country’s banking industry & a lengthening recession.   This situation gets uglier from one day to the next.

Spain Downgraded to BBB as Fitch Predicts Slump Through 2013


Consumer Credit in U.S. Rose in April

Photo:   Bloomberg

Americans cut back sharply on credit card purchases in Apr.  The Federal Reserve says consumers increased borrowing by $6.5B in Apr, just half of the Mar gain.  The forecast was for an $11B increase in consumer credit   The Apr gain was driven by a $9.96B increase in a category that includes auto & student loans which offset a $3.4B decline in a measure of credit card debt, the first decline since Jan.  Total borrowing rose to $2.55T, slightly below the all-time high of $2.58T reached in Jul 2008, 8 months after the recession began.  The decline in credit card debt follows a report last week that showed hiring slowed sharply in Apr & May.  Slowing growth is disturbing to me & it may slow further in May.

Consumer Credit in U.S. Rose in April for an Eighth Month


Mortgage Rates in U.S. Fall to Record Lows With 30-Year at 3.67%

Photo:   Bloomberg

US mortgage rates dropped to record lows for a 6th straight week as concerns over slowing job growth pushed investors into the safety of Treasuries that guide interest costs.  The average rate for a 30-year mortgage dropped to 3.67% this week, from 3.75%, according to Freddie Mac.  It was the lowest in records dating to 1971.  The average 15-year rate declined to 2.94%, also a record, from 2.97%.   The 10-year Treasury yield, a benchmark for mortgages, slipped to less than 1.5% for the first time on Jun 1.  Home-loan applications gained 1.3% in the period ended Jun 1 from the prior week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Assoc.  The refinance index rose 2%, while the purchase gauge fell 1.8%.  Low rates are not having a significant effect on bringing a recovery in housing.

Mortgage Rates in U.S. Fall to Record for Sixth Week With 30-Year at 3.67%


The markets tried to make it 3 gainer days in a row, but there was too much selling in the PM.  Dow lost more than 60 in the last hour.  Currently the Spanish debt mess is at the heart of the Euro debt crisis & that keeps going from bad to worse.  The biggest gainers in the Dow were: United Tech (UTX), P&G (PG), Home Depot (HD), Boeing (BA), Merck (MRK), 3M (MMM) & duPont (DD), each up at least 1%.  This was a very odd mixture.  Dow is up 400 above its lows at the start of the week, but it could be preparing to test them again.

Dow Industrials


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