Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Markets are adrift ahead of the FOMC meeting

Stocks are meandering awaiting the announcement by the FED later today.  Dow is up 6, advancers marginally ahead of decliners & NAZ fell 4.  Bank stocks were also higher in this directionless market.

SP 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value 196.66 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change   0.70  (0.4%)



The Alerian MLP Index fell a fraction in the 355s from yesterday's fresh record while the REIT index was off a fraction to 223.  Junk bond funds were mixed to lower.  Treasuries shave been rising in the last 3 days on expectations the Federal Reserve (FED) will resume buying long term Treasuries.  The yield on the 10 year bond dropped 5 basis points to 2.54% & has not been able to get far above the 2.4% lows it reached in the last 2 months.    

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month
0.12%
U.S. 2-year
0.34%
U.S. 10-year
2.54%


Alerian MLP Index   ---   2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index   ---   2 weeks



10-Year Treasury Yield Index   ---   2 weeks




Oil extended gains after a government report showed a decline in supplies of gasoline & distillate fuels. Gold fluctuated ahead of the FED meeting.


CLZ10.NYM...Crude Oil Dec 10...84.42 ...Up 0.52  (0.6%)

GCX10.CMX...Gold Nov 10....1,353.00 ...Down 3.40 (0.3%)

Gold Super Cycle Link! Click Here



Orders to US factories rose broadly in Sep, propelled by business spending on commercial airplanes, boats & machines.  The Commerce Dept reported that factory orders rose by 2.1%, the steepest increase since Jan after orders were flat in Aug.  However excluding the volatile transportation sector, orders rose 0.4%, after gaining 1.3% in Aug.  Business spending on costly, long-lasting goods such as airplanes & heavy machines produced most of the demand. But consumer spending also rose by 1.0%, after a flat performance in Aug.  There are worries that recession-weary consumers will not spend enough to keep factories moving as business spending subsides but this report may ease those fears.

U.S. Factory Orders Increase 2.1% as Manufacturing Leads Economic Recovery

Factory orders - 1 year

One-Year Chart for Monthly % Change (TMNOCHNG:IND)


US companies boosted payrolls by more than forecast in Oct according to a private report from ADP Employer Services. Employment increased 43K after a revised 2K drop in the prior month. The estimate called for a 2K.  This report suggests the Jobs report on Fri will show companies added 80K workers last month & the unemployment rate held at 9.6%. Concern that growth is too slow to lower unemployment will probably prompt Federal Reserve policy makers to take additional steps today to spur the US economy.  Over the previous 6 reports, ADP initial figures were closest to the Labor Department’s first estimate of private payrolls in May, when it overestimated the gain in jobs by 14K & was least accurate in Apr, when it underestimated the employment gain by 199K.

ADP Estimates U.S. Companies Added 43,000 Workers to Payrolls


Unemployment rate - 1 year

One-Year Chart for Total SA (USURTOT:IND)



Enbridge (ENB), a Canadian energy company, reported Q3 net income fell to C$157M, or 42¢ a share, from C$304M, or 83¢ last year. ENB said adjusted earnings rose to 53¢ a share, up from 42¢. The pipeline outages of Lines 6B & 6A that resulted in leaks of crude oil in Jul & Sep hurt earnings from its investment in Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) by $85B. The cause of the accidents remains under investigation. Analysts expected ENB to earn 47¢.  Sales for the qtr rose 33% to C$3.5B from C$2.6B in 2009.  ENB fell 17¢ & EEP rose 8¢ at their record highs.

Enbridge Profit Beats Analysts' Estimates; Pipeline Leaks Hurt U.S. Unit


Enbridge   ---   2 years




Enbridge Partners - 2 years




Very little is expected ahead of the FOMC meeting.  The FED should announce a quantitative easing (QE) plan to purchase $½B in Treasury bonds.  Less  would probably be taken as a negative & more could go either way.  There is still a lot of debating about whether some or a lot is needed to jump start the ailing recovery.  MLPs continue to reaching new highs while Apple (APPL) is only 3% below its record reached last month.

Dow Jones Industrials   ---   2 weeks





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