Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Markets adrift after weak economic data

Dow was under water all day, but nothing serious.  Much of the early losses were recovered, giving it a net loss of only 10, decliners ahead of advancers 4-3 & NAZ had a gain of 9.  Bank stocks led the selling (not a good sign for the overall markets), bringing the Financial Index down 2 to under 208.

The MLP index fell a fraction tp 399 & the REIT was down a smidgen in the 262s (its high since 2008).  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries higher (see below).  Oil fell after the Energy Dept reported that crude inventories surged to the highest level in more than 21 years & production along with imports climbed.  Gold slipped $8, still sloshing around the mid 1600s.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.081%

U.S. 2-year

0.262%

U.S. 10-year

1.921%

CLM12.NYM...Crude Oil Jun 12....105.26...Down 0.90  (0.9%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Treasury 10-year yields approached the lowest level in almost 3 months as manufacturing contracted in Europe & private employers in the US added fewer workers than forecast, boosting demand for the safest assets.  The Treasury delayed decisions on whether to sell floating-rate securities & bills with negative yields at gov auctions for the first time. The Treasury will issue $32B in 3-year notes, $24B in 10-year debt & $16B in 30-year bonds beginning May 8 (the same amounts sold in each refunding month since Nov 2010).  The 10-year note yield fell 3 basis points to 1.92%.  The Treasury said it sees benefits in the issuance of floating-rate notes & a decision will be made “at a later date.”  While there are good reasons to have negative yields at Treasury auctions, an official said, no decision has been made & there are operational challenges.  Negative yields mean the holders will get less than the $1000 paid for each note at maturity.  A euro-region factory gauge based on a survey of purchasing managers slipped to a 34-month low of 45.9 from 47.7 in March (a reading below 50 indicates contraction).  German unemployment increased by 19K to 2.87, higher than the forecasted decline of 10K.  Weaker Euro data is increasing demand for Treasuries.  The concept of negative yields is eye-popping & a negative sign for stocks.

Treasury Yields Approach 3-Month Low on European Slowdown


Time Warner Earnings Exceed Estimates on TV-Advertising Gains

Photo:   Bloomberg

A stronger box office slate, a new deal with Netflix (NFLX) & a better TV advertising climate contributed to growth at Time Warner in Q1.  Although earnings fell 11% because of restructuring charges, adjusted income beat expectations on the strengths of the company's movie studio & TV network businesses which offset weakness in the magazine division. EPS was 59¢ because there are fewer shares outstanding.  Excluding one-time factors, EPS was 67¢, better than the 64¢ expected.  The charges primarily related to shutting down a TV network in India & selling a school-fundraising business called QSP.  Adjusted EPS last year was 58¢.  Revenue grew 4% to $7B, ahead of expectations of $6.8B & $6.7B last year.  The cable TV networks revenue grew 3% to $3.6B.  Besides strong ad rates, the company benefited from better timing of March Madness basketball games & higher fees collected from US cable & satellite TV distributors.  That was offset partly by a decrease in content revenue.  TNT suffered from an NBA lockout, which delayed the start of the pro basketball season.  Although viewership has returned, the company hasn't been able to make as much money from NBA games this year along with higher expenses.  Warner Bros. studio had a 7% revenue increase to $2.8B, benefiting from higher licensing revenue of TV shows.  Revenue at the Time magazine division fell 3% to $773M as advertising & subscription revenue declined.  TWX reaffirmed its full-year outlook, saying adjusted EPS will grow by a low double-digit percentage from last year's $2.89.  The stock fell 63¢.

Time Warner Earnings Exceed Estimates on Gains in Television Advertising

Time Warner Inc. (TWX)


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  • Target Corporation shareholders leave the annual shareholders meeting. REUTERS/Allen Fredrickson
Photo:   Yahoo

Target, a Dividend Aristocrat, will stop selling the Kindle from Amazon (AMZN), the latest in a series of brawls between the companies fueled by increasing competition of AMZN with brick & mortar retailers.  "Target is phasing out Amazon- and Kindle-branded products in the spring of 2012," a Target spokesperson said.  "We will continue to offer our guests a full assortment of e-readers and supporting accessories."  The decision includes the new Kindle Fire tablet, its range of Kindle e-readers & all accessories for the devices.  But TGT will still sell other e-readers& tablets.  Wal-Mart (WMT), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, will keep selling Kindles.  This move comes as TGT outfits some of its stores with special displays of Apple (AAPL) products, including the iPad, which competes with the Kindle Fire tablet.  Kindle Fire is tightly integrated with AMZN 's huge online retail store, which competes with TGT physical big-box outlets & its website.  TGT stock fell 3¢.

Target Will Stop Selling Amazon’s Kindle After Two Years

Target Corporation (TGT)


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Dow had been down 80 in early trading, but buyers returned to limit the damage.  Its enormous rally since Oct remains intact although it has been sputtering in recent months.  Longer term, Dow has more than doubled off its lows just over 3 years ago, a mind boggling advance, with only a few minor setbacks.  For it to advance from here, the biggest question is the state of the US economy which may have run into a snag.  Once again, the jobs report on Fri will give clues about the economic recovery & be a big driver for the markets. 

Dow Industrials


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