Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Markets crawl higher after new orders data

Dow advanced 39, advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ slipped 5.  The MLP index rose 2+ to the 458s & the REIT index went up 2 to 270.  Junk bond funds gained & Treasuries were higher taking the yield on the 10 year Treaury below 2.7%.  Oil gained & gold slid back, stuck in its mid 1200 range.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.05%

U.S. 2-year

0.34%

U.S. 10-year

2.76%

CLH14.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 14...97.45 Up ...1.73 (1.8%)

GCF14.CMX...Gold Jan 14.......1,258.30 Down ...5.30  (0.4%)







Orders for durable goods unexpectedly slumped in Dec by the most in 5 months, reflecting a broad-based retreat that raises the risk business investment will cool in early 2014.  Bookings for goods meant to last at least 3 years dropped 4.3%, exceeding the weakest forecast, after a 2.6% gain in Nov that was smaller than previously reported, according to the Commerce Dept.  Orders for non-military capital goods excluding aircraft also declined.  Excluding transportation equipment, where demand is often volatile month to month, orders decreased 1.6%, the biggest decline since Mar, after a 0.1% increase in Nov.   Bookings for non-military capital goods excluding aircraft dropped 1.3% after a 2.6% gain in Nov that was smaller than previously estimated.  Demand for such products is considered a proxy for future business investment in equipment such as computers & electronics.  Shipments of those goods, a measure used to calculate GDP, declined 0.2% in Dec after rising 2.3% the prior month.

Orders for U.S. Durable Goods Unexpectedly Slump


Home prices in 20 US cities rose in Nov from a year ago by the most in almost 8 years, providing a boost to household wealth.  The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property prices in 20 cities climbed 13.7% from Nov 2012, the biggest 12-month gain since Feb 2006, after a 13.6% increase in the year ended in Oct.  The projection  called for a 13.8% advance.  A limited number of available properties is helping to sustain home price appreciation even as higher mortgage rates cool demand & leave purchases out of reach for some Americans.  Further strides in the housing market this year would be made easier by a pickup in job & income growth.  Home prices adjusted for seasonal variations rose 0.9% in Nov from Oct after a 1.1% gain the prior month. 

Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Rise Most Since February 2006


While the markets are still overbought relative to the 5 year advance, in the short term they are oversold bringing out buyers today.  But Dow remains down 700 in Jan.  If that decline continues, which is likely, it will be the 3rd indication of a down market for the year.

Dow Jones Industrials

stock chart









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