Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Markets extend losses after FOMC reduces monthly bond buying

Dow tumbled 189 (closing near the lows), decliners over advancers better than 3-1 & NAZ lost 46.  The MLP index fell 3+ to the 456s & the REIT was off 2 to the 268s.  Junk bond funds fell & Treasuries rose as stock sold off.  The yield on the 10 year Treasury is at its lowest since mid Oct.  Oil did little & gold found buyers after the FOMC meeting.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.04%

U.S. 2-year

0.35%

U.S. 10-year

2.68%

CLH14.NYM....Crude Oil Mar 14....97.38 Down ...0.03  (0.0%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Ben Bernanke

Photo:   Bloomberg

The Federal Reserve (FED) will trim its monthly bond buying by $10B to $65B, sticking to its plan for a gradual withdrawal from the unprecedented easing policy.  “Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement,” the FOMC said.  “The unemployment rate declined but remains elevated.”   Policy makers pressed on with a reduction in the purchases intended to speed a recovery from the worst recession in decades, even after payroll growth slowed in Dec & amid a rout in emerging-market currencies.  The FED left unchanged its statement that it will probably hold its target interest rate near zero “well past the time” that unemployment falls below 6.5%, “especially if projected inflation” remains below the committee’s longer-run goal of 2%.  The FED repeated the inflation “persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.”  It was the first meeting with no dissent since Jun 2011, showing officials coalescing around the central bank’s tapering strategy.  Even as they maintain stimulus, central bankers are planning for the end to the era of low interest rates.  In a technical note, the FED said it would continue testing a program designed to prevent short-term market interest rates from falling too low.  The program, called an overnight reverse repurchase facility, was first approved in Sep.



Marissa Mayer
Photo:   Bloomberg

Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer has failed to spur growth at the web portal 18 months after taking the job, & the outlook isn’t improving as advertisers continue spending their money elsewhere.  Q1 sales, excluding revenue passed to partner sites, will be $1.06-$1.1B in the current qtr, the company said.  The middle of that range would represent growth of less than 1% from $1.07B a year earlier.  Mayer is struggling to win ad sales as users show preference for her former employer & Facebook (FB).  She benefited last year as YHOO stock price doubled, reflecting the company’s stake in Alibaba.  Her challenge now is translating a catalog of new products, from updated advertising features to a food site, into growing sales.  Earnings from the equity interests, including its holdings in Alibaba & Yahoo Japan, rose to $222M from $149M in Q4-2012.  Alibaba’s revenue rose 51% to $1.78B during qtr ended Sep   Yahoo EPS increased to 33¢ from 23¢ a year earlier, helped by a gain from the sale of patents.  But net sales slipped to $1.2B from $1.22B in the prior year ago, in line with the estimate.  Mayer said that reaching a desirable level of growth will take years.  To speed a recovery, she’s boosting investments in engineering, shuttered underperforming services & focused on attracting users with more engaging products.  She also made a risky bet by spending $1.1B last year on Tumblr, a blogging site with little revenue.  “In 2013, we built a foundation for growth,” she said. “I’m very pleased with our progress.”  These results follow a leadership shakeup.  Mayer fired COO Henrique de Castro earlier this month after tensions erupted between the two because de Castro was not a “fit” for the company.  The stock sank 3.33 (9%) after a good run in the last year.
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Yahoo! (YHOO)


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Tablet shipments from computer makers grew at a slowing rate in Q4, hurt by an increasingly saturated market in the US, according to research firm IDC.  Global shipments climbed 28% from a year earlier to 76.9M units, the firm said, which compares with a 87% year-over-year growth rate in Q4-2012.  “Markets such as the U.S. are reaching high levels of consumer saturation,” Tom Mainelli, IDC’s research director for tablets, said.  “While emerging markets continue to show strong growth, this has not been enough to sustain the dramatic worldwide growth rates of years past.”  Apple (AAPL) maintained its lead in the industry & even saw its market share inch up from the previous 3 months, rising to 33.8% in the period from 29.7% in Q3.  Still, its share was down from a year earlier, paring the company’s once-commanding lead in an industry it pioneered.  Samsung ranked 2nd, accounting for 18.8% of shipments.  AAPL stock slumped 5.75 to about 500.

Apple Facing Slowing Tablet Growth as U.S. Market Gets Saturated

Apple (AAPL)


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Traders took no comfort in the reduction in bond buying by the FED.  This had been well advertised, but the news shook investors who have gotten spoil with low interest rates.  While FED interest rates have not changed, the reduction in bond purchases sent a clear signal that higher rates are on the agenda & may begin by the end of the year.  Dow has fallen more than 800 in Jan & it would a miracle for it to report a gain this month.  This has the making of a tough year for the stock market.

Dow Jones Industrials

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