Thursday, February 24, 2022

Markets cut losses while Russian attack on Ukraine continues

Dow finished up 92, believe it or not advancers over decliners 5-4 & NAZ went up a big 436.  The MLP index slid 1+ to the 194s & the REIT index rebounded 7+ to the 447s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries settled with only limited buying.  Oil rose about 1 to 93 & gold pulled back 22 to 1888 (more on both below).

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Pres Biden said that the US will introduce a new wave of sanctions against Russia in a broad effort to isolate Moscow from the global economy.  The pre said that the totality of the penalties will target trillions in assets & include specific measures against Russian elites & banks including state-owned VTB Bank.  The White House has also authorized additional troops to be stationed in Germany as NATO allies look to bolster defenses in Europe.  “Today I’m authorizing additional strong sanctions, and new limitations on what can be exported to Russia,” Biden added.  “This is going to impose a severe cost on the Russian economy both immediately and over time.”  “I just spoke with the G-7 leaders this morning,” Biden continued.  “And we’re in full and total agreement: We will limit Russia’s ability to do business in dollars, euros, pounds, and yen to be part of the global economy. We’ll limit their ability to do that.”  Prior to his remarks, leaders of the Group of Seven nations said they “are appalled by and condemn” Russia’s military aggression in Ukraine & promised to impose “severe and coordinated economic and financial sanctions” against the Kremlin.  Like other world leaders, Biden said US sanctions against Russia will also restrict high-tech trade with Moscow to limit its access to semiconductors needed to manufacture artificial intelligence, aerospace & defense hardware.  The UK & Canada both announced crackdowns on exports to Russia earlier today.  Biden said that possible Russia conduct cyberattacks against US companies or infrastructure would be met in kind.  “Our forces are not and will not be engaged in the conflict with Russia in Ukraine. Our forces are not going to Europe to fight in Ukraine, but to defend our NATO allies,” Biden added.  We will “defend every inch of NATO territory with the full force of American power.”

Biden vows wider sanctions on Russia in effort to cut Moscow off from the global economy

US inflation.is already at the highest level in four decades.  Russia's full-scale attack on Ukraine could push it even higher.  That's because the conflict has already sent oil prices above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014, with some prices jumping as high as $105 today after Russia launched a broad offensive against Ukraine yesterday night, hitting cities & bases with airstrikes & shelling.  Brent crude, the global benchmark, surged more than 8%, hitting $105 earlier today.  US oil prices, meanwhile, climbed to more than $99.  The war in Europe – which has shattered nearly 3 decades of peace on the continent – could ultimately cause oil prices to surge as much as 20% to $120.  The conflict also threatens to cause massive casualties.  Russia is the world's 2nd-largest producer of both oil & natural gas; a conflict or sanctions could disrupt the oil market even further at a time when high demand is outpacing tight supplies.  OPEC+ has resisted calls to boost supply significantly.  Germany already halted the certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia, while the US & the EU have also levied harsh financial sanctions against Moscow after it recognized 2 breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine.  Additional sanctions are expected after Russia launched a wide-ranging attack on Ukraine that threatens to upend the geopolitical order & reverberate throughout the rest of the world.  Russian Pres Vladimir Putin threatened that any foreign country attempting to interfere will be hit with "consequences you have never seen" – a chilling reference to Moscow's nuclear arsenal.  American & European officials also fear that Russia may retaliate against the sanctions by cutting off the supply of oil & natural gas that flows from Moscow to Europe, sending prices spiraling higher.

Russia’s attack on Ukraine could hit your wallet here at home

China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson refused to categorize Russia's attack as an “invasion” during a news conference.  Russian Pres Vladimir Putin announced an attack on Ukraine earlier in the day & explosions in Kyiv & other cities in Ukraine followed.  Ukraine's military claimed to be engaged in fighting within its borders & Ukraine Pres Volodimyr Zelenskyy described the violence as an invasion to destroy the country.  Within hours, leaders from the US, Germany, the UK & beyond condemned the Russian attack.  China's assistant foreign minister, Hua Chunying, was asked several times whether she would call Russia's attacks an invasion but she repeatedly avoided giving a yes or no answer.  In response to one reporter, Hua appeared to express frustration at the question & said, “The U.S. has been fueling the flame, fanning up the flame, how do they want to put out the fire?”  Hua said Russia was an “independent major country” that could take its own actions.  She referred repeatedly to Russia's gov statements on Ukraine, such as a claim from Moscow's Defense Ministry that Russian armed forces do not strike Ukrainian cities.  “China is closely following the development of the situation. What you are seeing today is not what we have wished to see,” Hua said.  “We hope all parties can go back to dialogue and negotiation.”

China refuses to call Russian attack on Ukraine an ‘invasion,’ deflects blame to U.S.

Gold futures climbed, with prices touching their highest intraday levels since 2020, as Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine, igniting a flight to perceived havens as investors fret that the latest geopolitical actions will destabilize economies & intensify inflationary pressures.  Apr gold rose $15 (0.8%) to settle at $1926 an ounce, after touching a high of $1976, the highest for a most-active contract since Sep 2020.  The settlement was the highest since Jan 5, 2021.  Russia is among the largest producers of gold in the world but at this point uncertainty in the financial markets has fed investment demand for the precious metal. 

Gold taps highest levels 17 months as Russian invasion in Ukraine sparks flight to safety

US economic growth was revised slightly higher in the final months of 2021, helping the nation record its best year for growth in nearly4 decades before the highly contagious omicron variant of the coronavirus dampened consumer spending & further strained the global supply chain.  GDP, the broadest measure of goods& services produced across the economy, grew by 7% on an annualized basis in Q4, the Commerce Dept said in its 2nd reading of the data.  The economy grew at an annual revised rate of 2.3% in Q3.  The change stemmed from increased contributions to fixed investment & state & local gov spending, which were offset by some downward revisions to consumer spending & exports.  Looking at the quarterly data, the nation's GDP grew about 1.7% from the 3rd to the 4th qtr, compared with an increase of just 0.6% between the 2nd & 3rd qtrs, marking a substantial uptick as businesses reopened & Americans spent down their savings following the delta variant surge in the summer & fall.  Russia's invasion of Ukraine has also scrambled the outlook for a global economy already confronting red-hot inflation & supply-chain disruptions.  Extensive fighting in the region could disrupt the oil flow from Russia, the world's 2nd-largest producer, pushing prices higher at a time when demand is already far outstripping supply.  The economic impact may also hinge on the scale of the fighting & the harshness of the sanctions levied by the US & its European allies.  In other economic news, the Labor Dept reported that 232K Americans filed for unemployment benefits lastweek, slightly lower than expectations.  Roughly 2M Americans were collecting jobless benefits for the latest week, a modest decrease from the previous week; by comparison, just a little over one year ago, more than 19.8M Americans were receiving benefits.  Claims have largely moderated as the economy recovers from the pandemic & Americans venture out to travel, shop & eat.  Businesses have struggled to keep up with the demand, however, & have reported difficulties in onboarding new employees.  Despite the slight uptick in claims, today's report suggests that companies are making an effort to retain the workers they already have.

US economic growth revised for end of 2021, before omicron impact

Crude-oil futures settled higher, with both the US & intl benchmarks tapping intraday highs above $100 for the first time since 2014, as Russian troops and tanks pushed into Ukraine & airstrikes hit the country in an attack authorized by Pres Vladimir Putin in a televised address to his nation.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Apr rose 71¢ (0.8%) to settle at $92.81 a barrel, well below the session’s high of $100.54.  Apr Brent crude, the global benchmark, settled $2.24 (2.3%) higher at $99.08 a barrel after touching $105.79.  Both intl & US contracts hit their highest intraday level since 2014.  The Russian attack on Ukraine is viewed as the largest such military operation in Europe since World War II & is likely to spark concerns about supply disruptions, during a period of uncertainty in the global economy underpinned by COVID worries & supply-chain bottlenecks.  Analysts have said that the Ukraine conflict increases the risk of disruptions to Russian oil & natgas supplies & the sanctions and the effect of higher oil prices, could exacerbate global inflationary pressures.  Pres Biden unveiled additional US sanctions against Russia, blocking more banks, but analysts had said the latest sanctions could include kicking Russia out of the SWIFT payment network.  Biden said a move on WIFT remains an option.  The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude inventories rose by 4.5M barrels for last week.  The forecast a decline of 300K barrels.  The American Petroleum Institute reported a 6M-barrel increase, according to sources.  The EIA data showed crude stocks at the Cushing, Okla, Nymex delivery hub fell by 2M barrels for the week, while stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve were down by 2.4M barrels.

Oil prices touch highs above $100 amid Russian airstrikes in Ukraine

Even by stock market standards, this was an unusually volatile day for stock stocks & commodities.  The Dow started with a substantial loss.  There was buying during the midday period & heavy buying, up 600 in the last 2 hours of trading.  However the chart below shows that Dow is still down 3100 YTD.

Dow Jones Industrials 








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