Tuesday, February 22, 2022

Markets retreat after Biden announces sanctions on Russia

Dow finished down 482, decliners over advancers better than 2-1 & NAZ declined 166.  The MLP index fell 3+ to the 194s & the REIT index was off 2+ to the 446s.  Junk bond funds were weak & Treasuries continued to see a little selling.  Oil went up 1+ to the 92s & gold added 2 to 1902 (more on both below).

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Russia Pres Putin said Russia will continue to provide an "uninterrupted" supply of natural gas to global markets just hours after Germany halted the certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.  Gas prices hit a 7-year high this month as the threat of a Russian invasion into Ukraine appeared increasingly likely – a spike expected to worsen following Putin's decision to order "peacekeeping" forces into Eastern Ukraine last night.  "Russia intends to continue uninterrupted gas deliveries, including [liquefied natural gas] LNG shipments, to global markets, to upgrade the available infrastructure and to invest more in the gas sector," he said in a letter to the Gas Exporting Countries Forum.  Officials of the 11-member summit met in Qatar this week to address spiking gas prices as Europe looks to block oil exports from Russia – which supplies roughly 40% of the European market.  NATO promised severe sanctions if Moscow invaded Ukraine & nations like the US, UK & Germany have already taken steps to hit the Kremlin with economic repercussions.  "The past few years proved difficult for the global energy sector, which has experienced the dire economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic," Putin argued.  "We are convinced that it is in the interests of the global community to make sure that the energy transition does not become a means of promoting the political and economic interests of certain players. Moreover, it should not be accompanied by sanctions or any other restrictions," he added.  The UK announced today that it has taken steps to target "oligarchs at the heart of Putin’s inner circle" as well as banks that have "bankrolled the Russian occupation of Crimea."

Russian leader vows to keep Europe's gas despite pipeline sanctions

US airports were the busiest since Thanksgiving over Presidents Day weekend, a sign that leisure travel continues to recover as Covid cases fall further.  The Transportation Security Administration screened nearly 8.4M people from Fri thru Mon, more than double the number from a year ago but down 7.5% from the 9M people the TSA screened in 2020, a month before Covid-19 was declared a pandemic.  US airline executives have recently said that leisure travel continues to recover or surpass pre-pandemic levels, particularly for domestic trips.  Fares are likely to rise along with stronger demand this spring as well as amid a surge in airline costs, including for fuel & labor.  Corp & long-haul intl travel has been slower to recover as companies & individuals navigate a host of travel restrictions & many offices haven't fully reopened.  Some countries, including the UK, France & Israel have loosened entry requirements.  US airlines & several other travel industry groups earlier this month urged the Biden administration to drop predeparture Covid testing requirements for vaccinated travelers headed to the US.

Holiday weekend air travel surges to highest levels since Thanksgiving as Covid cases continue to drop

Home Depot (HD, a Dow stock, sales grew 11% in the fiscal Q4 & it projected growth in 2022, as contractors bought lumber, electrical equipment & other supplies for projects.  While demand has eased from the height of the coronavirus pandemic.  But HD is being challenged by inflation & supply chain bottlenecks.  The company topped expectations & said it anticipates earnings per share will grow at a low single-digit pace while sales trends will be “slightly positive” in the coming fiscal year.  Sales grew 11% in the fiscal Q4 & it projected growth in 2022, as contractors bought lumber, electrical equipment & other supplies for projects.  EPS grew to $3.2 from $2.65 a year earlier.  The forecast called for EPS of $3.18.  Net sales rose to $35.7, topping expectations of $34.8B.  Its forecast, while positive, reflects more conservative expectations for growth in the qtrs ahead.  Its outlook is roughly in line with analysts, who expect sales to rise 2.5% & EPS to increase 4.7% for the full year.  In Q4, however, HD continued to put up big numbers.  Its same-store sales climbed 8.1%, higher than the 5% gain that was expected & same-store sales in the US increased 7.6%.  HD board approved a 15% increase in its quarterly div, bringing it to $1.90.  The stock tumbled 30+ (9%).
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Home Depot beats estimates, retailer says it sees sales growth ahead for 2022

Gold futures settled back above $1900 an ounce, scoring their highest finish since Jun, after Russian Pres Putin ordered troop deployments to pro-Moscow, breakaway regions of Ukraine, increasing the threat of a full-scale annexation of the Eastern European country.  Apr gold climbed $7 (0.4%) to settle at $1907 an ounce, after touching an intraday peak at $1918.  The settlement was the highest since Jun for a most-active contract.  Prices had climbed 3.1% last week — the steepest weekly advance since last May.  Putin's order sending troops comes after Russia earlier said it was recognizing the independence of separatist factions in Donetsk & Luhansk, breakaway areas in Ukraine's Donbas region.  The threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine has ratcheted up tensions between Moscow & the US & its allies, helping to underpin gains in precious metals, which are perceived as havens during geopolitical conflict.  Gold values on Thurs hit their highest levels in about 8 months, but ended lower on Fri, heading into the 3-day weekend, with US markets closed.  Germany took steps to halt an important natural gas pipeline, Nord Stream 2 & the White House said that Pres Biden would issue sanctions against Moscow.  Meanwhile, officials from the EU described Putin/s latest actions & statements as “a blatant violation of international law.”

Gold settles back above $1,900 after Russia’s Putin orders forces to breakaway regions in Ukraine

Pres Biden just said that Russia has begun “an invasion” of Ukraine & announced sweeping sanctions on the major Russian bank VEB & its military bank. The sanctions will prohibit American financial institutions from processing transactions for VEB & its military bank.  This would effectively cut the banks out of transactions involving $s, the global reserve currency.  His announcement came after Russia's parliament approved Pres Putin's request to use military force outside the country's borders, a development that appears designed to authorize a broader attack on Ukraine.  Biden also announced that the US would implement comprehensive sanctions on Russia's sovereign debt.  “That means we’ve cut off Russia’s government from Western financing,” Biden said.  “It can no longer raise money from the West and cannot trade its new debt on our markets. or European markets either.”  In addition to the sanctions on VEB & Russian debt, Biden said in the days ahead he would sanction individual Russians in Putin's inner circle.  Russian elites & their family members, he said, “share the corrupt gains of the Kremlin’s policies, and so they ought to share in the pain as well.”  Biden added that NATO reinforcements would continue to operate only in a defensive capacity, but that this should not be taken to mean that the alliance will not respond in kind to Putin's military maneuvers.

Biden says U.S. will sanction Russian financial firms, sovereign debt and individuals after Ukraine incursion

Crude & natural-gas prices climbed sharply, with Brent futures marking their highest settlement since 2014, amid the threat of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia.  Apr Brent oil, the intl benchmark, rose 1.5% ($1.45) to settle at $96.84 a barrel after trading as high as $99.50.  The front-month contract marked its highest finish since Sep 2014.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Mar added $1.28 (1.4%) to end at $92.35 a barrel on its expiration day.  The Apr contrac, which is now the front month, rose $1.70 (1.9%) to settle at $91.91.  Russian Pres Putin said that he recognized the independence of pro-Moscow separatist factions in Luhansk & Donetsk, Ukraine & was ordering troops into the breakaway regions as what he referred to as peacekeepers.  Russia is the 3rd-largest oil producer in the world & the 2nd-largest producer of dry natural gas.  Russia is a key supplier of natural gas to Western Europe & the intensification of conflict in Eastern Europe could influence prices.  Energy analysts have said that dependence on Russian gas limits Europe's ability to sanction Moscow if it invades Ukraine. 

Brent oil posts highest finish since 2014 after Russia orders troops to Ukraine

After selling for most of the day, the Dow rallied 400 to cut its loss.  However sellers returned in the final hour & it settled not far above the sessions lows.  Oil & natural gas continued to be in demand & nervous investors keep buying gold.  The Dow is back to where it was in Apr & still faces a lot of head winds.

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