Tuesday, September 19, 2023

Markets ease lower ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting

Dow fell 106 (off session lows), decliners over advancers 4-3 & NAZ edged down 32.  The MLP index added 1+ to the 245s & the REIT index was off 1+ to the 359s.  Junk bond funds dipped lower & Treasuries saw more selling, driving yields higher.  Oil rose in the 91s & gold slid back 1 to 1952 (more on both below).

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The House of Representatives canceled a scheduled key procedural vote today on a temporary gov funding bill hashed out by Reps.  The House GOP leadership pulled a vote originally scheduled for today to advance a stopgap measure to fund the federal gov thru Oct 31, according to an updated legislative schedule published by Dem Whip Katherine Clark.  The US faces a gov shutdown if Congress fails to pass a temporary funding measure by midnight Sep 30.  House Speaker Kevin McCarthy supports a temporary funding measure to keep the gov running.  But he has faced opposition from hard-right members of the GOP.  Key Rep factions in the House reached a tentative deal Sun to avoid a shutdown by pairing temporary funding with spending cuts & a border security measure backed by the hard right.  But some members of the GOP still opposed the spending measure after a conference meeting today.  Rep Matt Gaetz said he would do everything he can to “assemble a coalition to defeat” the measure, called a continuing resolution.  “We will likely have to endure some degree of a shutdown,” said Gaetz, who wants to pass separate appropriation bills to fund gov agencies rather than a single temporary measure.  Even if the continuing resolution had been approved, it had no chance of winning passage in the Senate, where Dems hold the majority.  The House has just 6 days left in session before the Sep 30 deadline.

House GOP pulls key vote to advance stopgap government funding bill

The national debt of the US reached a historic milestone by passing $33T for the first time, less than 2 weeks before the federal gov faces a potential shutdown over a lack of funding authorization.  The debt, which equals the amount of money borrowed by the federal gov to cover operating expenses, hit $33.04T, according to the Dept of the Treasury.  A roughly 50% increase in federal spending between fiscal 2019 & fiscal 2021 contributed to the debt topping $33T, the dept said.  Tax cuts, stimulus programs & decreased tax revenue as a result of widespread unemployment during the Covid-19 pandemic were factors in driving gov borrowing to new heights.  The issue of the debt is at the center of a standstill in Congress over a spending bill that would sustain the gov until the next funding cycle.  Rep lawmakers are pushing for less spending, while Dems back Pres Biden's programs, such as the Inflation Reduction Act, which is estimated to cost more than $1T over the next decade, according to a University of Pennsylvania budget model.  House Reps have released their own bill to fund the gov until Oct 31 in exchange for an 8% cut to domestic programs with exceptions for national security.  But that bill is not expected to pass the Dem-controlled Senate.Congress has until Sep 30 to pass a spending bill.

U.S. national debt hits $33 trillion for the first time

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said there is a “disconnect” between the actual performance of the US economy & how Americans feel about how Pres Biden has handled it.  The negative opinions that Americans share in polls on the economy “mainly reflects their answers on how is the economy more broadly doing,” Yellen said,  But she predicted that people will start to feel more positive about the overall economy once they see the effects of Biden administration legislation & politics.  “It’s going to take some time. We’ve had a trifecta of legislation that President Biden and Congress have passed,” Yellen said.  “We’re investing in America in ways we haven’t for decades.”  Approximately 3 in 5 respondents to a Wall Street Journal poll of registered voters disapproved of Biden's performance in handling the economy.  And 63% reported they did not like how the pres has handled inflation.  In an earlier poll, only 36% of adults approved of Biden's job on the economy, while 42% approved of his overall job performance, according to The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.  She noted that inflation & unemployment are decreasing when Yellen was asked to “answer the riddle that the White House is finding so befuddling,” which is why “those good numbers” are not being reflected in polling.  Yellen replied, “I agree with you that there’s a disconnect and I don’t have a simple and convincing answer.”  “But Americans have been through a lot,” Yellen said.  “The pandemic really took a toll on American families, on children and households.”  “We are enjoying a remarkable recovery but also with high inflation, much of it reflecting supply bottlenecks that developed during the pandemic and then with Russia's brutal attack on Ukraine.”  But Yellen said a downswing in inflation, combined with more jobs, will bolster the post-pandemic recovery.  The 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law, the CHIPS & Science Act & the Inflation Reduction Act will spur massive infrastructure improvements & grow the “clean energy economy” as well as manufacturing, she predicted.  “We’ve seen since the beginning of the Biden administration, $500 billion worth of investment in manufacturing that has been announced and is being undertaken, that is going to be creating a really good set of manufacturing jobs throughout the country, and particularly in areas that have been missing out on growth and seeing declining wages for a long time,” she addded.

Treasury chief Yellen tackles ‘disconnect’ on Biden polling and U.S. economy

Gold futures posted a modest gain  to mark another settlement at their highest in over 2 weeks, a day ahead of the Federal Reserve decision on interest rates.  A hawkish decision would be decidedly bearish for gold while a dovish surprise would support a run beyond $2000 for gold.  Dec gold inched up pennies to settle at $1953 an ounce.

Gold Gains for a 4th Straight Session to Settle at a More Than 2-Week High

Oil finished lower, with US prices down for the first time in 4 sessions.  Oil trading is a sophisticated game of Chutes & Ladders & there are some hot spots that may take Brent & possibly WTI to $100 a barrel shortly.  But whether either benchmark can average $100 for a month is an interesting question.  When there are bullish extremes in sentiment, it is often a sign that the market is about to turn.  Oct West Texas Intermediate crude fell 28¢ to settle at $91.20 a barrel after settling yesterday at their highest price of the year.

U.S. Oil Futures End Lower for The First Time in Four Sessions

Tomorrow is the big day for the Fed.  As usual, when Powell speaks everybody listens.

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