Friday, September 8, 2023

Markets edge higher on hints the Fed could pause on a rate hike

Dow went up 82, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ gained 28.  The MLP index was flattish near 239 & the REIT index was steady in the 364s.  Junk bond funds were little changed & Treasuries had more buying which reduced yields (more below).   Oil rose higher in the 87s & gold added 5 to 1948.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


 

 




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Treasury yields fell as investors fretted over the possibility of further interest rate hikes following the release of fresh economic data.  The yield on the 10-year Treasury was down 3 basis points at 4.23% & the 2-year Treasury yield was about 2 basis points lower at 4.938%.  Yields & prices have an inverted relationship & 1 basis point equals 0.01%.  Fears of further interest rate hikes have been mounting this week as several economic data points suggested sustained inflationary pressures & tightness in the labor market.  This included initial weekly jobless claims data yesterday that came in below the expected 230K.  Cooling the labor market has been a key aim for the Federal Reserve alongside easing inflation.  The central bank has followed a restrictive monetary policy approach since early 2022, implementing a series of rate hikes to tamp down stick inflation.  The prospect of more hikes, or elevated rates for longer, has fueled concerns of a potential economic downturn.  Markets are widely anticipating that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its Sep meeting, but expectations for a Nov rate hike have been on the rise, with traders pricing in a 55% chance, according to CME's FedWatch tool.  Investors are gearing up for key data releases next week, including the latest consumer & producer price index reports.  Several Fed policymakers said earlier this week that inflation data would be key for their decision-making going forward. 

U.S. Treasury yields decline as investors consider interest rate policy path 

Time is running short for Ford (F), General Motors (GM) & Stellantis (STLA) to reach respective agreements with the United Auto Workers (UAW) for new contracts.  UAW Pres Shawn Fain reiterated that his union is ready to strike against any of Detroit's Big Three automakers that have not made a deal before next week's deadline.  When asked during an interview whether the labor union would strike against any of the companies that do not have tentative agreements in place when the current contracts expire at 11:59 PM on Sep 14, Fain said, "That's the plan."  The labor union is seeking a 46% pay raise over the 4-year contract along with an array of additional benefits, including a reduction of the workweek to 32 hours for 40 hours worth of pay for its 146K members at Ford, GM & Dodge parent STLA, whose latest offer the UAW rejected last month.  But he "left open the possibility of avoiding a strike" & "acknowledged, more explicitly than he has before, that the union will have to give up some of its demands to reach agreements."  The UAW chief also said there has been some progress in negotiations with GM & Ford, but STLA has still not presented a counteroffer.  STLA said last week that talks between the company & the UAW's bargaining team "continue to be constructive."  Fain has made it clear for weeks that the UAW is prepared to strike against any & all of the Big Three automakers that do not bend to the union's demands.  He was elected this year after running on a campaign that promised a more aggressive approach than previous UAW leaders.  He said ahead of his win that the union's members "have had enough with concessions and company-friendly leadership."

UAW president warns automaker strike coming next week without a deal

The governor of Alaska is accusing the pres of violating the law after Biden's administration pulled the plug on Trump-era oil leases.  "If he's willing to break this law, surely there's going to be others. And once again, Alaska right now feels like a victim under this administration. And the country is going to feel like a victim here if they haven't already," Rep Gov. Mike Dunleavy said.  Alaska's state agency is expected to challenge the decision in court, after Biden canceled several oil & gas leases issued in early 2021 to an Alaskan state economic development agency.  The Dept of the Interior (DOI) rescinded the 7 10-year leases — spanning 365K acres in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) — held by the Alaska Industrial Development & Export Authority (AIDEA) & supported by a wide range of stakeholders, including lawmakers & Native Alaskans.  The leases were issued by the Trump administration in one of its final actions.  "This makes absolutely no sense from any perspective unless your goal is to drive up the cost of oil and gas so much that it makes certain renewables cheaper," Dunleavy added.  The DOI also issued a proposal to block off 13M acres of land across the National Petroleum Reserve (NPR), an area in North Slope Borough, Alaska, set aside by Congress for resource development, & an additional 2.8M of acres in the Beaufort Sea off the northern coast of Alaska, from oil & gas leasing.  "This is just two of 55 actions that the federal gov under this administration is perpetrating against Alaska right now," Dunleavy said, while adding that Russia, China, Saudi Arabia & Iran are "laughing" at Biden's energy policy.  "They're laughing together at the United States of America," the governor said.  "I can't find anywhere in, really the history of nation-states or empires, where they worked at hobbling themselves to such a degree that's happening currently with this administration. So 2024 can't come soon enough for most of us."

Biden cancels Trump-era oil and gas leases in Alaska: 'Like a victim under this administration,' governor says

Buyers are nibbling after selling early this week.  The thought of a strike on the automakers is sobering.  At the same time, high interest rates are troubling for the stock market.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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