Markets pause after hitting nearly 4-month highs

Dow declined 56, decliners over advancers 5-4 & NAZ was off 9.  The MLP index remained flat at 254 & the REIT index was up 1+ to the 358s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries had heavy buying which lowered yields.  Oil fell fractionally to 75 & gold rose 10 to 2013 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

 

The humanitarian truce deal that has brought a pause to the fighting in the Gaza Strip has been extended by a further 2 days, Qatar's ministry of foreign affairs said.  Spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari did not immediately confirm the details of the deal but said earlier that it could include further hostage releases & aid deliveries.  17 hostages held by Hamas in Gaza were released yesterday, including 4-year-old Israeli-American Abigail Mor Edan.  Israel released 39 Palestinian prisoners in return.  The first limited pause in fighting formally began on Fri & Pres Biden has said he hopes the current truce will be extended to allow more captives to be freed.  Today, Elon Musk was accompanied by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on a visit to a kibbutz in southern Israel that had been attacked by Hamas militants on Oct 7.  The Tesla (TSLA) CEO & owner of social media platform X, formerly Twitter, then was taken to individual families' homes to hear more personal experiences of the attacks.

Qatar says agreement reached to extend Israel-Hamas truce for two additional days

The blockbuster diabetes drug Mounjaro is more effective for weight loss than another highly popular diabetes treatment, Ozempic, in overweight or obese adults, according to a large analysis of real-world data published today.  Patients taking Eli Lilly 's (LLY) Mounjaro were significantly more likely to lose 5%, 10% & 15% of their body weight overall & saw larger reductions in body weight after 3 months, 6 months & a year compared with those on Novo Nordisk 's Ozempic in the study by Truveta Research. The firm compiles & analyzes patient data from a collective of health-care systems.  The results come as both drugs & similar treatments approved for weight loss soar in demand in the US for their ability to help patients shed unwanted pounds over time.  Mounjaro & Ozempic are only approved for the treatment of Type 2 diabetes, but many people use the weekly injections off-label to lose weight.  A spokesperson for LLY said the company does not promote or encourage off-label use of any of its medicines & noted that the new study was not sponsored by the drugmaker. Novo Nordisk did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the new study.  Previous head-to-head studies have similarly suggested that Mounjaro is more effective than Ozempic for weight loss & controlling blood sugar in adults with Type 2 diabetes.  But today's study confirms Mounjaro's edge over Ozempic in a real-world setting, specifically among adults who are overweight or obese.  Notably, head-to-head clinical trials in that population are not yet available, according to Truveta Research.   LLY stock fell 9.24 (2%).

Mounjaro is more effective than Ozempic for weight loss, real-world study

Sales of new US single-family homes fell more than expected in Oct as higher mortgage rates squeezed out buyers even as builders cut prices, but the setback is likely temporary amid a persistent shortage of previously owned houses on the market.  The decline in sales reported by the Commerce Dept was in line with a recent deterioration in homebuilder sentiment, which came as the rate on the popular 30-year fixed-mortgage approached 8%, leaving builders anticipating slower buyer traffic.  Mortgage rates have since retreated from 2-decade highs & are at levels last seen in late Sep, which could pave the way for a rebound in sales.  "The market for new homes remains very solid by any historical standard and continues to be boosted by extremely low existing home inventory," said Daniel Vielhaber, an economist at Nationwide in Ohio.  New home sales dropped 5.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679K units last month, the Commerce Dept's Census Bureau said.  Sep's sales pace was revised lower to 719K units from the previously reported 759K units.  The forecast for new home sales, which account for 15.2% of US home sales, would fall to a rate of 723K units.  The share is the largest in at least a decade.  New home sales are counted at the signing of a contract, making them a leading indicator of the housing market.  They, however, can be volatile on a month-to-month basis.  Sales increased 17.7% on a year-on-year basis in Oct.  The supply of previously owned houses on the market is nearly 50% below its pre-pandemic level, according to the National Association of Realtors, which last week reported that home resales plunged to more than a 13-year low in Oct.

US new home sales fall more than expected in October

Gold prices hit a more than 6-month high, firming above the $2000 per ounce level, as a weaker $ & expectations of an end to US interest rate hikes lifted demand.  Spot gold was up 0.5% at $2012 per ounce, after reaching its highest since May 16 at $2017.  US gold futures also rose 0.5% to $2013.  The $ eased 0.1% against a basket of major currencies, hovering around a more than 2-month low touched last week & making gold less expensive for holders of other currencies.  Gold is flying and to really explain it, is the fact that it’s finally broken above $2000 in a significant way & the move was purely technical, driven by last week’s US inflation data & jobs report.  Gold prices are well above their 50-, 100- &-200 day moving averages & are around $60 away from Aug 2020's all-time high of $2072.

Gold Hits 6-Month High on Fed Pause Expectation, Softer Dollar

Oil fell for a 4th day as traders looked ahead to this week's delayed OPEC+ meeting & wider financial markets carried a risk-off tone.  Global benchmark Brent dipped near $80 a barrel after falling in each of the last 5 weeks, the longest such run since the end of 2021.  Crude's retreat today mirrored a slight worsening of sentiment across markets with data showing profits at China's industrial companies rose at a much slower pace in Oct, highlighting risks to growth in the world's largest crude importer.  The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries had to push back the critical gathering to decide on supply policy by 4 days to Nov 30 amid a dispute over quotas.  Signs of weakness in crude futures have traders & analysts expect the group will take additional measures to tighten the market.  Brent has dropped by almost a 5th from a high in late Sep on increased supply from non-OPEC+ countries & the fading of the Israel-Hamas war risk premium.  The Intl Energy Agency forecast earlier this month that the market would tip back into surplus next year.  Brent for Jan settlement fell 0.65% to $80.06 a barrel % WTI for Jan declined 0.7% to $75.03 a barrel.

Oil Declines for a Fourth Day as Traders Look to OPEC+ Meeting

Stocks meandered looking for direction.  Dow stayed slightly below breakeven all day.  The economy remains less than robust with new home sales, a major part of the economy, still struggling.

Dow Jones Industrials