Dow slid back 91, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ dropped 119. The MLP index was flattish in the 252s & the REIT index fell 2 to the 354s. Junk bond funds were little changed & Treasuries had limited buying, slightly reducing yields (more below). Oil was lower in the 77s & gold jumped 26 to 2006.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Yields declined yesterday following a Treasury Dept auction that saw solid demand, as investors assessed the chances that the Federal Reserve's interest-rate hiking cycle is over. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was down more than 2 basis points at 4.418% & briefly touched its lowest level since Sep with 4.379% on Fri. The 2-year Treasury yield was marginally higher at 4.913%. The yield on the 20-year Treasury declined 3 basis points at 4.777% after a strong auction of $16B worth in bonds yesterday. The bid-to-cover ratio, a measure of demand, on the 20-year Treasury was 2.58, slightly higher than the average of 2.52. Yields & prices move in opposite directions & 1 basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. The auction came as investors assessed the outlook for the economy & Federal Reserve monetary policy, as hopes that the central bank is done hiking rates grew in recent weeks. That came after both the producer & consumer price index came in lower than expected last week, suggesting that inflation is easing & the Fed's interest rate hikes are having the desired effect of cooling the economy. The Fed is due to meet once more this year in Dec & markets are widely expecting interest rates to remain unchanged. Investors are considering when the Fed will begin cutting rates, a question Fed officials have not addressed in detail. The topic was not discussed at the central bank's latest meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at the time, but many investors are hoping that this may change based on recent economic data.
Treasury yields fall Monday after strong 20-year notes auction
Sales of previously owned homes were 4.1% lower in Oct compared with Sep, running at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.8M units, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). It was the slowest sales pace since 2010. The forecast was expecting a smaller drop, to 3.9M units. Sales were down 14.6% year-over-year. The Oct sales count is based on closings from contracts likely signed in Aug & Sep. The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage had dropped to near 7% at the end of Aug, but then began rising sharply, jumping over 8% by mid-Oct. Rates have since retreated somewhat. “Prospective home buyers experienced another difficult month due to the persistent lack of housing inventory and the highest mortgage rates in a generation,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. “Multiple offers, however, are still occurring, especially on starter and mid-priced homes, even as price concessions are happening in the upper end of the market.” At the end of Oct there were 1.15M homes for sale, down 5.7% from a year earlier. This is about ½ as many homes as were available for sale pre-Covid. At the current sales pace, that represents a 3.6-month supply. a 6-month supply is considered a balanced market between buyer & seller. Tight supply kept pressure under prices. The median price of an existing home sold in Oct was $392K, an increase of 3.4% from a year ago ($379K). Prices rose in all regions of the country. These annual price increases have been getting larger for 4 straight months. Roughly 28% of homes sold above list price. “While circumstances for buyers remain tight, home sellers have done well as prices continue to rise year-over-year, including a new all-time high for the month of October,” Yun said. “In fact, a typical homeowner has accumulated more than $100,000 in housing wealth over the past three years.”
Home sales fell to a 13-year low in October as prices rose
Ford (F) is scaling back plans for a $3.5B battery plant in Michigan as
consumers move to electric vehicles more slowly than expected, labor
costs rise & the company moves to cut costs. Ford execs including CEO Jim Farley & Chair Bill Ford initially announced
the facility in Feb. It quickly became a political target due to
its connection to Chinese battery manufacturer Contemporary Amperex
Technology (CATL). The plant is a wholly-owned Ford subsidiary,
but the automaker is licensing technology from CATL to produce new
lithium iron phosphate, or LFP, batteries for EVs. Ford said that it is cutting production capacity by roughly 43% to 20 gigawatt
hours per year & reducing expected employment from 2500 jobs to 1700
jobs. The company declined to disclose how much less it would invest in
the plant. Based on the reduced capacity, it would still be about a $2B investment. The decision adds to a recent retreat from EVs
by automakers globally. Demand for the vehicles is lower than expected
due to higher costs & challenges with supply chains & battery
technologies, among other issues. Reductions at the Marshall, Michigan plant are part of Ford's plans announced last month to cut or delay about $12B
in previously announced EV investments. The company will also postpone
construction of another electric vehicle battery plant in Kentucky. “We
looked at all the factors. Those included demand and the expected
growth for EVs, our business plans, our product cycle plans, the
affordability and business to make sure we have we can make a
sustainable business out of this plant,” Ford Chief Communications
Officer Mark Truby said. “After assessing all
that, we are now good to confirm that we’re moving forward with the
plant, albeit in a slightly smaller size and scope than what we
originally announced.” The stock fell 20¢.
If you would like to learn more about Ford, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/F_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6aeoso5b6f7
Ford to scale back plans for $3.5 billion battery plant as EV demand disappoints, labor costs rise
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