Markets push higher as hiring remains robust in the US economy

Dow gained 341 (near session high), advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ was up 219.  The MLP index hardly budged in the 288s & the REIT index pulled back 2+ to the 427s.  Junk bond funds saw only little change & Treasuries had more selling which brought higher yields.  Oil was fractionally higher to the 74s & gold dropped 11 to 2667 (more on both below).

Dow Jones Industrials 

Consumer sentiment extended its early-month climb, ultimately rising more than 3% above Aug This increase was seen across all education groups & political affiliations.  Furthermore, all 5 index components gained, led by a 6% surge in 1-year business expectations.  The expectations index is now 13% above a year ago & reflects greater optimism across a broad swath of the population.  While sentiment remains below its historical average in part due to frustration over high prices, consumers are fully aware that inflation has continued to slow.  Sentiment appears to be building some momentum as consumers' expectations for the economy brighten.  At the same time, many consumers continue to report that their expectations hinge on the results of the upcoming election.  Relative to Aug, consumers across political parties are increasingly expecting a Harris presidency, though about 2/3 of Reps still expect Trump to win.

Consumer sentiment builds momentum as inflation continues to slow

Mortgage rates are up slightly, with long-term notes lifting off a 2-year low from last week.  "The decline in mortgage rates has stalled due to a mix of escalating geopolitical tensions and a rebound in short-term rates that indicate the market's enthusiasm on rate cuts was premature," said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist.  "Zooming out to the bigger picture, mortgage rates have declined one and a half percentage points over the last 12 months, home price growth is slowing, inventory is increasing, and incomes continue to rise," Khater continued.  "As a result, the backdrop for homebuyers this fall is improving and should continue through the rest of the year."  Many would-be buyers & sellers are holding out to see if rates fall further.  Currently, about 80% of mortgage holders have a rate below 5%, according to a Zillow survey.  The average rate on the 15-year fixed mortgage also rose slightly to 5.25% from 5.16% last week.  1 year ago, the rate on the 15-year fixed note averaged 6.78%.

Mortgage rates start rising again as experts point the blame

General Motors (GM) has temporarily halted vehicle production at 2 US factories that assemble highly profitable large pickups & SUVs due to impacts to suppliers as a result of Hurricane Helene.  The automaker canceled shifts Thurs & Fri at a plant in Flint, Michigan, that produces its heavy-duty trucks as well as at Arlington Assembly in Texas, which produces full-size SUVs such as the Chevrolet Tahoe, Cadillac Escalade & GMC Yukon.  A GM spokeswoman did not speculate on when the plants were expected to restart production.  However a message to workers in Arlington viewed said production at that plant was expected to resume Mon.  “We are working with these suppliers to resume operations as quickly and safely as possible for their employees and communities, as we seek to minimize impacts on our plants,” GM said.  Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida late last week & hit the southeastern US & parts of western North Carolina particularly hard.  At least 215 people have died & hundreds are still missing.  GM declined to disclose what suppliers are impacted or where they are located.  Jeffrey Morrison, GM VP of global purchasing & supply chain, said the hurricane & the port workers strike were disruptive events for the automaker. The strike ended yesterday & dockworkers returned to the job today.  The stock rose 70¢.

GM halts production at two major U.S. plants due to Hurricane Helene

Gold prices slipped after a stronger-than-expected US jobs report poured cold water on expectations for an aggressive rate cut from the Federal Reserve next month, boosting the $.  Spot gold was down 0.2% at $2649 per ounce after touching a record high of $2685 last week & US gold futures settled 0.4% lower at $2667.  US job growth accelerated in Sep & the unemployment rate slipped to 4.1%, further easing pressure on the Fed to deliver another 50 basis point rate cut at its Nov. 6-7 policy meeting.  Gold stumbles as a strong payrolls report seems likely to lock in 25 bps in Nov.  The dollar index jumped to a 7-week high after the data, making bullion more expensive for overseas buyers.

Gold Falls as Stronger US Jobs Data Shrinks Hopes of Big Fed Rate Cut

The real-time price of Brent crude oil is at $77.87 per barrel, and the price of WTI crude oil is at $74.49 per barrel. Oil prices are customarily quoted in dollars (USD) around the world, not only in the US or when referring to US crude oil.

Read more at: https://commodity.com/energy/oil/price/

Brent oil settled at 77.87 (up 4.2%) per barrel & the price of WTI crude settled at 74.49 (up 4.9%) per barrel.

The jobs report swung forecasts toward a smaller interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve next month.  Over 90% of bets are on a 25 basis point cut, as opposed to a larger 50 basis point cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.  Dow in Oct was up 22 this week & it seems like the economy has a ton of problems to deal while a very close presidential race is on the minds of everybody.