Markets slide in volatile trading after Iran attacks Israel

Dow finished down 173 in a very choppy session, decliners over advancers 4-3 & NAZ sank 278.  The MLP index crawled up to the 286s & the REIT index fell 3+ to the 435s.  Junk bond funds remained slightly higher& Treasuries continued to see buying which lowered yields.  Oil climbed 2 to go over 70 on increased war activity in the MidEast & gold jumped 24 to 2683 (more on gold at new highs below).

Dow Jones Industrials 

Increases in sales of electric vehicles & small crossovers helped General Motors (GM) report slightly better-than-expected sales during the 3rd qtr.  The automaker reported a 2.2% drop in 3rd-qtr sales compared with a year earlier, slipping to 659K vehicles sold.  Auto industry forecasters such as Cox Automotive & Edmunds had expected GM’s sales to be down by more than 3% during that time.  GM's 3rd-qtr sales are expected to be in line with the overall industry.  Cox Automotive & Edmunds project 3rd-qtr sales industrywide will be down roughly 2% compared to a year earlier.  GM's sales were assisted by a roughly 60% year-over-year increase in EVs during the qtr, to roughly 32K units sold.  Still, EVs made up only 4.9% of the company’s total 3rd-qtr sales.  GM forecasts its market share was 9.5% of the US EV market, up 3 percentage points from the first qtr of this year.  While GM has withdrawn most of its previously announced electric vehicle targets, the automaker believes its EV sales momentum is finally building thanks to an expanding lineup of all-electric vehicles, spanning a price range of $35K - $300K.  “We are definitely outstripping the industry in terms of growth, in terms of EVs,” Rory Harvey, GM pres of global markets, including North America, said last month.  “We have the most comprehensive EV lineup out of any manufacturer in the industry, in the U.S., at the moment.”  The stock was up 4¢.

GM reports 2.2% decrease in third-quarter sales, but EVs make gains

The US housing market has remained stagnant, with just 25 out of every 1000 homes changing hands in 2024, according to recent data from real estate firm Redfin.  The first 8 months of the year marked the lowest turnover rate in at least 30 years, according to Redfin, which conducted an analysis of housing turnover by comparing the first 8 months of 2024 across different metro areas, home & neighborhood types.  It is using turnover as a way to measure housing availability.  Comparatively, there were 37% fewer homes sold this year compared with during the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic buying frenzy.  In 2021, 40 of every 1000 homes changed hands.  There were also 31% fewer homes sold compared with 2019.  Elevated mortgage rates & record-high home prices with just enough demand to keep pushing prices up have sidelined potential buyers & sellers, creating this low turnover, according to Redfin economists.  Even though there is more inventory compared to a year ago, the firm said there are still far fewer homes listed for sale compared to pre-pandemic levels.  On top of that, many buyers & sellers are holding off due to the economic & political uncertainty.  They are taking a "wait-and-see approach" amid discussions of a potential recession & an intense presidential election between 2 candidates with contrasting economic & housing policies, Redfin said.  The turnover rate has fallen across all property types in all areas over the past year, though condos & townhouses had the biggest declines.

Housing turnover rate hits lowest level in 30 years

Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel in retaliation for its recent killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah & an Iranian commander in Lebanon.  The attack came on the heels of Israel's deployment of ground forces into south Lebanon, escalating its offensive on Hezbollah, a militant group backed by Iran.  “In response to the martyrdom of Martyr Haniyeh, Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, & Martyr Nilforoushan, we have targeted the heart of the occupied territories,” Iran's Revolutionary Guard said after missiles began appearing in the skies over Israel.  “Should the Zionist regime respond to Iran’s operation, it will face crushing attack,” Iran’s paramilitary organization added.  Abbas Nilforoushan was an Iranian Revolutionary Guards deputy commander, who was killed with Nasrallah in a bombing by Israel last Fri in Beirut.  Ismail Haniyeh was the political commander of the Hamas terror group, who was killed in Jul by an Israeli strike on Tehran, the capital of Iran.  Israel has been engaged in a brutal war on Hamas since the group launched the Oct. 7 terror attack on Israel from Gaza.  Israel Defense Forces said it had identified about 180 missiles fired toward Israel from Iranian territory.  Most of those missiles were intercepted by Israeli defense systems, but there were some reported hits & other damage is being assessed.  There were only 2 people reported lightly injured from shrapnel from the missile attack in the Tel Aviv area, according to Israeli authorities.  There were also some minor injuries reported across Israel involving people moving to safe spaces.  A White House official today warned that any direct attack on Israel by Iran “will carry severe consequences for Iran.”  “We are actively supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against this attack,” an official said.  That official & a Defense Dept official said that Iran was expected to target military & gov sites, not civilian locations.

Iran launches missile attack on Israel for killing of Hezbollah leader, general

Gold prices jumped over 1% on safe-haven demand as fears of a full-out war in the Middle East escalated after Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel.  Spot gold gained 1% to $2661 per ounce, after hitting an all-time high of $2685 & US gold futures settled 0.9% higher at $2690.  Iran fired a salvo of ballistic missiles at Israel in retaliation for Israel's campaign against Tehran's Hezbollah allies in Lebanon.  Gold is used as a safe investment during times of political & financial uncertainty.  It's instinctive safe-haven buying but unless an Iranian missile gets thru & does serious damage in Israel it may be similar to the Apr attack with similar ordnance that was almost completely intercepted.

Gold Jumps Over 1% on Safe Haven Demand After Iran's Attack on Israel

Oil prices climbed about 3% after Iran fired a salvo of ballistic missiles at Israel in retaliation for Israel's campaign against Tehran's Hezbollah allies in Lebanon.  Brent futures gained $1.86 (2.6%) to settle at $73.56 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.66 (2.4%) to settle at $69.83.  Earlier in the day, both crude benchmarks were up by over 5%.  Alarms sounded across Israel & explosions could be heard in Jerusalem & the Jordan River valley after Israelis piled into bomb shelters.  In the Red Sea, meanwhile, another Iran-backed group, the Houthis in Yemen, claimed responsibility for attacking at least 1 of 2 vessels damaged off the port of Hodeidah.  The Houthis have launched attacks on intl shipping near Yemen since last Nov in solidarity with the Palestinians in the war between Israel & Hamas in the Gaza Strip.  Before news that Iran was planning a missile attack, the oil market was trading down near a 2-week low as the outlook for increased supplies & tepid global demand growth outweighed fears over an escalating Middle East conflict & its impact on crude exports from the region.

Oil Prices Rise 3% After Iran Launches Missiles at Israel

After Iran fired over 100 ballistic missiles at Israel, pushing oil prices for West Texas Intermediate & Brent to their biggest increases in nearly a year.  Meanwhile, new jobs & manufacturing data kicked off the new qtr as investors searched for further clues on the future of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle after Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted the central bank is not in a rush to rapidly cut rates.  Job openings surprisingly increased in Aug, furthering the narrative that while the labor market is cooling, it's not rapidly slowing.  New data showed there were 8.04M jobs open at the end of Aug, an increase from the 7.71M seen in Jul.  US manufacturing held steady in Sep.  The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 47.2 last month.  Despite holding steady, the reading still came in weak, as a PMI below 50 indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector.  Trading was highly volatile today.