Showing posts with label ADP jobs report. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ADP jobs report. Show all posts

Thursday, September 6, 2012

Markets surge after ECB announced bond buying program

Dow shot up 221, advancers ahead of decliners 4-1 & NAZ jupmed 51.  The Financial Index soared 4+ to 208, a new high since the start of May.  The MLP index was off a fraction in the 395s & the REIT index rose 2 to 270 (close to its yearly highs).  Junk bond funds slipped & Treasuries saw selling as stocks traded higher.  Oil went up along with stocks but gold also is having a good day, going over 1700, on negative bets against more ECB stimulus.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


stock chart

Treasuries:

U.S. 3-month

0.101%

U.S. 2-year

0.254%

U.S. 10-year

1.655%

CLV12.NYM....Crude Oil Oct 12...96.89 ...Up 1.53 (1.6%)

GCU12.CMX...Gold Sep 12...1,706.00 ...Up 15.20 (0.9%)



Get the latest daily market update below:


  • Job seekers speak to recruiters at a job fair sponsored by the New York Department of Labor in New York, June 7, 2012. REUTERS/Keith Bedford
Photo:   Yahoo

The number filing new claims for jobless benefits fell last week to its lowest level in a month.  Initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped 12K to 365K, according to the Labor Dept.  It was the first drop in new claims since the week ending Aug 4.  The forecast had been for claims dipping to 370K.  But the prior week's figure was revised up to show 3K more applications than previously reported.  The 4-week moving average for new claims, a better measure of labor market trends, edged up to 371K.  The state of  unemployment & filing of jobless claims could determine whether the Federal Reserve will offer additional monetary stimulus to the economy at its Sep 12-13 meeting.

Jobless Claims in U.S. Decrease to Lowest Level in a Month

  • <p>               El presidente del Banco Central Europeo, Mario Draghi, ofrece una rueda de prensa el jueves 6 de septiembre de 2012 en la ciudad alemana de Francfort, donde anunció un nuevo programa de compra de bonos entre las 17 naciones de la eurozona para favorecer un disminución en el costo de sus deudas. (Foto AP/Michael Probst)
Photo:   Yahoo

Why is this man smiling?  Mario Draghi has unveiled a long-awaited program to buy bonds to help bring down the borrowing costs of Europe's struggling govs.  The plan envisions no set limit on the number of bonds the ECB could buy, making the program "a fully effective backstop" against a further worsening of the debt crisis in the countries that use the €.  The initiative, dubbed Outright Market Transactions or OMT, goes beyond an earlier, limited bond purchase program that was not big enough to decisively lower borrowing costs.  Draghi emphasized that the new, unlimited program by contrast was open-ended and had "no quantitative limits."  He said it would work because it was "very very different from any program we have had in the past."  The new program would continue until its goal of lower borrowing costs is achieved, or a gov violates the conditions attached to getting the help.  The € was flat, just under $1.26 after rising a  nickel in the last month..

Draghi Says Officials Agree on ECB Unlimited Bond-Buying


ADP Says U.S. Companies Added 201,000 Workers in August

Photo:   Bloomberg

A private survey shows US businesses stepped up hiring in Aug, an encouraging sign ahead of the Fri employment report.  Payroll provider ADP says businesses added 201K jobs last month, the most reported since Mar.  ADP also said Jul job growth was stronger than first thought when employers created 173K jobs, 10K more jobs than originally reported.  The report only covers hiring in the private sector & excludes gov job growth.  The Labor Dept will offer a more complete picture of Aug hiring tomorrow.  The 2 surveys reported roughly the same private-sector job creation in Jul, but  have diverged sharply in previous months.

ADP Says U.S. Companies Added 201,000 Workers in August


The stock markets are feeling very good after hearing about more bond buying in Europe.  The ECB fells that throwing more money at a nagging problems will cure it.  For the time being it sound good, but not sure how long this enthusiasm will last.  The jobless numbers were favorable which could lead to a helpful jobs report tomorrow.  Even after today's surge, Dow remains in its sideways trading trading range which has lasted more than 7 months.  But it's 120 below its 2012 highs, an important objective.  At the same time, contrary thinking is driving gold higher.

Dow Jones Industrials


stock chart







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Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Markets advance ahead of FOMC announcement

Dow rose 42, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ was up 3.  The Financial Index was up a fraction to the 198s, essentially matching its highs since early May.  The MLP index slipped a fraction to 394 & the REIT index rose 1 to 268 (2 below the yearly high).  Junk bond funds were higher & Treasuries declined ahead of the FOMC announcement.  Oil rose on speculation central banks will take steps to support the economic recovery & after US crude inventories dropped the most in almost 5 years. Gold dropped back below 1600.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.091%

U.S. 2-year

0.211%

U.S. 10-year

1.509%

CLU12.NYM...Crude Oil Sep 12...88.45 ....Up 0.39  (0.4%)

GCQ12.CMX...Gold Aug 12.....1,598.40 ...Down 12.10  (0.8%)



Get the latest daily update below:



ADP Says U.S. Companies Added 163,000 Workers in July

Photo:   Bloomberg

US companies added more workers than projected in Jul, indicating the job market was holding up entering as it enters H2   The 163K increase followed a revised 172K gain in the prior month according to ADP Employer Services. The forecast called for an advance of 120K.  A pickup in hiring is needed to generate the wage gains that would spur consumer spending.  The Labor Dept report on Fri may show private payrolls rose by 110K (it was over 200K in Q1) & unemployment held at 8.2%.  Since Apr 2010, ADP’s initial estimate has either overstated or understated the Labor Dept’s initial reading on private payrolls by 72K on average.



ISM Index of U.S. Manufacturing Rose to 49.8 in July

Photo:  Bloomberg

Manufacturing in the US shrank for the 2nd straight month in Jul, further evidence of an economy growing at a sluggish pace.  The Institute for Supply Management said that its index of manufacturing activity ticked up to 49.8, from 49.7 in June.  A reading below 50 indicates contraction & Jun was the first time the survey showed manufacturing contracted in 3 years.  While factories have been a key source of jobs & growth since the recession ended in Jun 2009, the sector has shown signs of weakness in recent months.  The report points toward more slow growth, rather than another recession.  The index needs to fall below 43 to signal a recession is likely.  An uncertain economic outlook has made consumers & businesses reluctant to spend, lowering demand for factory goods.  Factories kept hiring in Jul but at a slower pace & new orders declined more slowly than in Jun.  Overall, manufacturing output rose at only a 1.4% annual rate in Q2, after a jump of 9.8% in Q1.

Manufacturing in U.S. Unexpectedly Contracts for Second Month


MasterCard Profit Beats Estimates Amid Debit Market-Share Gains

Photo:   Bloomberg

MasterCard reported a 15% increase Q2 income after recording a $13M expense related to a settlement with merchants over credit card fees.  EPS rose to $5.55, up from $4.76 a year ago.  Excluding the charge, EPS was $5.65, above the $5.57 forecast.  Purchase volume, the amount people spent on debit & credit cards with MasterCard logos, rose 13% worldwide, slower than the 17% recorded in Q1, reflecting a slowdown in many economies around the world.  Results were also tempered by the strength of the dollar.  A strong dollar reduced the value of earnings made overseas when that money is converted back into dollars.  MA increased rebates & incentives to both new customers & those that were renewing agreements.  These kinds of incentives are common practice in the credit card industry, but there are concerns that they can weaken future results.   The stock fell $9.19.

MasterCard Declines as Second-Quarter Revenue Misses Analysts’ Estimates

MasterCard (MA)


stock chart


Markets are awaiting developments later today when the Federal Reserve makes its statement after the meeting.  Little new is expected.  Tomorrow the ECB will speak & everybody is guessing what will come from that.  Fri is the big jobs report & the Jul number for new jobs will probably be drab (mentioned above).  Other economic data continues to be weak.  Meanwhile, the bulls have the upper hand in the markets & Dow continues to hang in above 13K.

Dow Jones Industrials


stock chart






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Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Markets slump as companies added few workers in April

Dow dropped 53, decliners over advancers 2-1 & NAZ was off 8.  Bank stocks led the selling, taking the Financial Index down 2+ to the 207s (where is was 4 weeks ago). 

The MLP index fell 1+ the 398s & the REIT index was off 1+ to the 261s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries rallied, bringing the yield on the 10 year Treasury closer to 1.9%.  Oil dropped from a 5-week high as a report showed US employers added fewer jobs last month than forecast while inventories climbed.  Gold declined the most in 2 weeks after 3 voting members of the FOMC said they don’t see a need for more economic stimulus & physical demand slumped in India, the world’s biggest importer.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.086%

U.S. 2-year

0.266%

U.S. 10-year

1.912%

CLM12.NYM...Crude Oil Jun 12...105.67 ...Down 0.49  (0.5%)

GCK12.CMX...Gold May 12......1,655.40 ...Down 6.30  (0.4%)



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ADP Says Companies in U.S. Add Fewest Workers in Seven Months

Line of jobseeks
Photo:   Bloomberg

In Apr, companies added the fewest workers in 7 months, indicating the job market may take time to strengthen.  Employment increased 119K following a revised 201K gain in the prior month, according to ADP Employer Services & sharply below the forecast of 170K. Companies may remain hesitant about expanding the workforce until they see more evidence that the gains in consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of the economy.  Over the previous 6 reports, ADP’s initial figure was closest to the Labor Department’s first estimate of private payrolls in Oct, when it overstated the gain in jobs by 6K & the estimate was least accurate in Dec, when it overestimated the employment gain by 113K.  Goods-producing industries, which include manufacturers & construction companies, decreased workers 4K in Apr & employment at factories declined 5K as did payrolls in construction.  But service providers added 123K workers.  Companies employing more than 499 workers added 4K jobs.  Medium-sized businesses, with 50-499 employees, took on 57K & small companies increased payrolls 58K, ADP said.  There is greater anxiety over the jobs report due on Fri.

ADP Says Companies Add Fewest U.S. Workers in Seven Months
 
  • A Volkswagen autoworker works in the chisel checks department at a plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee December 1, 2011. REUTERS/Billy Weeks
Photo:   Yahoo

New orders for US factory goods in Mar recorded their biggest decline in 3 years as demand for transportation equipment & a range of other goods slumped,  The Commerce Dept said orders for manufactured goods dropped 1.5% after a revised 1.1% rise in Feb, pretty matching the forecast for orders to fall 1.6% after a previously reported 1.3% increase in Feb.  While the report showed broad weakness in a sector that has carried the economic recovery, anecdotal evidence suggests factories continued to expand as Q2 started.  The Institute for Supply Management's index of national manufacturing activity climbed to a 10-month high in Apr, with a measure of new orders received by factories the highest in a year.  Orders for transportation equipment tumbled 12.6% in Mar on weak orders for civilian aircraft & orders for motor vehicles & parts were flat after rising 1% in Feb.  Factory goods orders excluding transportation were flat in Mar after rising 1% the prior month.  Unfilled orders at factories edged up 0.1% after rising 1.2% in Feb. Shipments of factory goods increased 0.7% after rising 0.1% the prior month, while inventories gained 0.3%.  Orders for durable goods, manufactured products expected to last 3 years or more, fell 4% instead of the 4.2% decline reported last week.  Durable goods orders excluding transportation were down 0.8% rather than 1.1%.  Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft dipped 0.1% in Mar instead of the previously reported 0.8% drop.  This is not encouraging news for an economic recovery.

Factory Orders in U.S. Decrease on Pullback in Aircraft

  • <p>               FILE- This Sept. 21, 2011, file photo. shows a MasterCard sign on a revolving door in New York. MasterCard said Wednesday, May 2, 2012, its first-quarter profit rose 25 percent on a big spike in card use overseas. Its net income was $682 million, or $5.36 per share, on revenue of $1.8 billion. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan, File)
Photo:   Yahoo

Shoppers in Latin America, the Asia Pacific & the Middle East powered a 25% increase in MasterCard's profit for Q1.  EPS was $5.36 on revenue of $1.8B, beating expectations of $5.29 on revenue of $1.7B.  CEO Ajay Banga, said the number of purchases the company processed jumped 29%, the highest growth rate since the company went public.  MasterCard usage in the US grew 14% as people spent more in restaurants & on apparel, hardware & electronics.  Banga said that the US economy would have to do better for that growth to continue. "For this trend to continue for a sustained period of time, we're going to look for additional improvement in unemployment and a positive turn in housing prices," Banga said.  Recent intl acquisitions paid off, contributing to 25% profit growth. In the Asia Pacific, Latin America, Middle East & Africa, usage of its cards grew 23%.  In Q1 MA repurchased 652K shares at a cost of $248M & the company is authorized to repurchase another $556M.  MA increased rebates & incentives, a common practice in the industry.  In Q1 costs related to such incentives grew 24%, taking a bite out of revenue.  The stock dropped 11 to 444. 


Mastercard Incorporated (MA)


stock chart


Today's numbers were gloomier, raising concerns about the economic recovery in the US.  The numbers were on the low end of expectations, not good going into the big jobs report on Fri.  European factories sank further into decline last month, with the downturn hitting Italy & Spain hard & appearing to take root in France & Germany.  Gas at the pump averaged $3.86 yesterday, just a few pennies below the highs reached last month.  But the popular averages are only pocket change below their multi year highs.  I call that a disconnect.

Dow Industrials


stock chart






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