Showing posts with label Alcoa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alcoa. Show all posts

Monday, July 9, 2012

Markets ease back awaiting earnings season

Dow lost 36, decliners over advancers 5-4 & NAZ was off 5.  The Financial Index eased back a fraction in the 194s.  The MLP index rose almost 1 to the 385s (a 2 month high) & the REIT Index was up fractionally in the 265s (near its yearly highs).  Junk bond funds rose as did Treasuries.  Oil rose for the first time in 3 days as a labor strike threatened to halt all offshore oil & gas production in Norway, Western Europe’s biggest exporter.  Gold was also higher but remains sloshing around its yearly lows.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.071%

U.S. 2-year

0.262%

U.S. 10-year

1.510%
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CLQ12.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 12...86.40 ...Up 1.95  (2.3%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




  • <p>               President Barack Obama waves in the East Room of the White House in Washington, Monday, July 9, 2012, after calling on Congress to pass a temporary, one-year extension of the Bush-era tax cuts for people who make less than $250,000 a year.  (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)
Photo:   Yahoo

The President called on Congress to extend tax cuts for only low & middle income earners (roughly the bottom 98%) while allowing taxes to increase for families that make more than $250K a year.  "Let's not hold the vast majority of Americans and our economy hostage while we debate the merits of another tax cut for the wealthy," Obama said.  He wants Congress to pass a one-year extension of the Bush-era tax cuts for households making less than $250K before they expire at the end of the year.  He said the outcome of his Nov election contest would then determine the fate of the tax cuts for higher income earners.  "My opponent will fight to keep them in place. I will fight to end them," he added.  The White House spokesman said Obama "would not sign" a bill that extended the whole range of tax cuts in full.  Romney supports extending the tax cuts for all income earners.  His spokeswoman Andrea Saul said that Obama's proposal amounted to a "massive tax increase" & proved that the president "doesn't have a clue how to get America working again and help the middle class."  The contours of the tax debate are largely the same as they were when the cuts were due to expire at the end of 2010.  While Obama opposed an extension for higher income earners then as well, he ultimately agreed to full 2-year extension, in part to win concessions for other legislation.  This is far from a done deal!

Obama Calls for Extending Middle-Income Tax Rates

  • <p>               French President Francois Hollande gestures as he delivers a speech at the beginning of a social conference with unions and employers, at the Economic, Social and Environmental Council of France (CESE) headquarters in Paris, Monday July 9, 2012. (AP Photo/Thibault Camus, Pool)
Photo:   Yahoo

France had a successful bond auction today, but also got a warning from the president that growth so far this year is "nil" & that the country needs to rethink its social model.  The gov sold €6B in short-term bonds at negative interest rates (debt holders will incur a slight loss at maturity), as investors flock to the perceived safety of Europe's larger economies.  It was the first time rates entered negative territory according to the French Treasury.  France's borrowing costs have been dropping in recent months as those in neighboring Spain have soared on increased fears that it will need a bailout.  But France, with the #2 economy in Europe, has high debts of its own & 10% unemployment, & is struggling to avoid a new recession.  "Everybody knows that in the first half of the year, growth will be nil. So we need to mobilize all our forces, all our imagination, all our capacities to achieve lasting growth for the years ahead," French President Francois Hollande said at a conference with labor & business leaders meant to lay the groundwork for new jobs policies.  "My goal is to make our social model evolve to better guarantee" its future, Hollande said.  "The time has come to put France on the move, and there is no time to lose."  Among his proposals is a special new job contract under which employers would get tax breaks if they hire a young person & keep an older employee at the same time, instead of choosing one or the other.  He has also said that companies who abuse temporary contracts instead of long-term contracts should have to pay more into the state unemployment system.  This is another story explaining why the Euro zone economy is soggy in 2012.

French president: zero growth so far this year AP


Consumer credit climbed more than forecast in May, led by the biggest jump in credit-card debt in almost 5 years.  The $17.1B increase is bigger than the highest estimate & the largest this year, following a $9.95B gain in the previous month (that was more than previously estimated), according to the Federal Reserve.  Revolving credit, which includes credit card spending, rose by $8B, the most since Nov 2007.  A pickup in borrowing coincides with a slowdown in hiring & declines in consumer confidence that indicate the job market is failing to spur big enough gains in wages to cover expenses.  Employers added fewer workers to payrolls than forecast in Jun while the jobless rate stayed at 8.2%.  Non-revolving debt, including educational loans & loans for motor vehicles & mobile homes, increased by $9.1B in May. 



This was a quiet day ahead of earnings season with the 3 biggies weighing on the markets: Europe, China & US earnings.  The proposal to extend tax cut for most is very touchy politically & probably will go nowhere until late in Dec.  Tax uncertainty is an enormous negative holding back economic recovery.  While Dow has had a nice bounce off its lows last month, it's back on defense.

Alcoa (AA) reported mediocre earnings after the markets closed.  "Although aluminum prices are down, the fundamentals of the aluminum market remain sound with strong demand and tight supply," CEO Klaus Kleinfeld said.  EPS, excluding items, was 6¢, down from 32¢ last year.  Revenue fell 10% to $5.96B.  Analysts had expected EPS excluding items of 5¢ on $5.81B in revenue.  The stock was little changed after hours.

Dow Jones Industrials


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Thursday, July 5, 2012

Lower markets on sluggish retail sales

Dow dropped 47 (weakening in the last hour), decliners ahead of advancers 5-4 & NAZ was even helped by a big rise at Apple (see below).  The Financial Index fell 3 to the 196s.  The MLP index was about even in the 382s & the REIT index pulled back 1+ to the 264s from yesterday's yearly highs.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries rose.  Oil & gold fell, along with the stock market.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

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Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.071%

U.S. 2-year

0.286%

U.S. 10-year

1.592%

CLQ12.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 12...87.35 .....Down 0.31  (0.4%)

GCN12.CMX...Gold Jul 12.......1,600.30 ...Down 21.00  (1.3%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




China Cuts Benchmark Interest Rates for Second Time in Month

Photo:   Bloomberg

China cut its benchmark interest rates for the 2nd time in a month & allowed banks to offer bigger discounts on their borrowing costs, stepping up efforts to reverse a slowdown in the world’s 2nd-biggest economy.  The one-year lending rate will fall 31 basis points & the one-year deposit rate will drop by 25 basis points effective tomorrow, announced by the People’s Bank of China.  The discount banks can offer on loans was widened to 30% from 20%.  China is moving more aggressively to promote growth as Europe's turmoil crimps exports & domestic property restrictions curb the housing market.  Today’s cuts coincided with decisions by the ECB & Bank of England (BOE) to increase monetary stimulus & preceded gove data next week that may show expansion decelerated for a 6th qtr.  China announced the move at the same time as the BOE raised its asset-purchase target by £50B ($78B) to £375B, restarting its expansion of stimulus.  Then the ECB cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 0.75% & lowered its deposit rate to zero from 0.25%.  The idea is that these moves were coordinated.  However, with rates near zero, rate cuts may not have much effect.

China Cuts Benchmark Rates for Second Time in Month


Apple suppliers in Asia are preparing for mass production in Sep of a tablet computer with a smaller screen than the iPad (likely to be smaller than 8"). The current iPad's screen measures 9.7", unchanged since the first model was released 2 year ago.  Suppliers said that AAPL has told them to prepare for mass production of the smaller tablet.  The screen makers include LG Display of South Korea & Taiwan-based AU Optronics.  A smaller tablet could help AAPL company maintain its dominance in a market that keeps getting more crowded.  Competitors include Samsung Electronics & Amazon.com (AMZN).  In addition, Microsoft (MSFT), Dow stock, & Google (GOOG) recently unveiled tablets.  Last year, the iPad held a 62% share of the world-wide market, according to market-research firm IHS iSuppli, which expects overall tablet sales this year to surge 85% to 127M units.  As the market continues to expand, consumers' choices, in size, technical specifications & price, are growing more varied.  Last week, GOOG started taking orders for the Nexus 7, a tablet device with a 7" screen that will sell for $199.  That matches the price of AMZN Kindle Fire, which came out last year & also has a 7" screen.  AAPL rose $10.53.

Apple Said to Plan Smaller IPad to Vie With Google Nexus

Apple (AAPL)


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Target Corp.

Photo:   Bloomberg

US retailers' same-store sales in Jun nearly matched estimates, with luxury chains such as Saks (SKS) & discounters like TJX (TJX) topping expectations while stores targeting middle-income consumers trailing projections.  Same-store sales at the more than 20 companies tracked by Retail Metrics rose 0.3%, compared with the 1% average estimate, follow a 7.2% increase last year.  Consumers may have been spooked by the unemployment rate staying above 8%, sending many to discount chains such as TJX, which posted a 7% sales gain.  At the same time, luxury consumers have continued to spend with the stock market still up for the year.  TJX, which owns discount stores TJ Maxx & Marshalls, beat estimates for a 3.7% sales increase.  The company said EPS this year may be as much as $2.39, up from a previous forecast for a maximum of $2.37. Same-store sales at Limited Brands (LTD), the parent company of Victoria’s Secret, gained 7% beating the average estimate of 2.6% & sales at SKS rose 6%, topping the 4.2% estimate.  But sales at Target (TGT & a Dividend Aristocrat) rose 2.1%, falling short of the 2.8% forecasted gain, & Macy's (M), the 2nd-biggest department-store chain, posted a modest 1.2% increase, missing the 2.3% estimate.  Macy’s said in a statement that the “stagnant” economy & reduced spending from tourists hurt sales.

Retailers’ June U.S. Sales Little Changed While Luxury, Discounters Gain


Markets were nervous awaiting the big jobs number tomorrow.  Expectations are for about 90-95K new jobs to be added, far below the 200K+ numbers that were common in Q1.  The rate cuts in Europe & Asia (plus another one in Kenya) may not have much effect on stimulating economies.  Bulls are hoping for a pleasant surprise in the jobs number, but recent signals are not encouraging (i.e. jobless claims data).  But Dow is hanging in there, very near the highs since mid May.  Aloca (AA), a Dow stock, on Mon will be the first to report earnings.  Analysts are looking for a meager 6¢, down from 32¢ last year.

Dow Jones Industrials


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Friday, January 6, 2012

Mixed markets despite improving economic data

Stocks were under water all day on growing tensions over European debts.  Dow lost 55, decliners over advancers barely ahead of decliners & NAZ rose 4.  The Financial Index lost 1.

The Alerian MLP index was hit with profit taking, falling 2½ to the 394s & the REIT index was off fractionally.  Junk bond funds were mixed but Treasuries rose on more nervousness about the credit mess in Europe.  Oil marked time, awaiting developments around the Strait of Hormuz & gold was also little changed (although up 4% in the first week of 2012).

ALERIAN MLP Index



DJ REIT INDEXDJR



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Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.010%

U.S. 2-year

0.256%

U.S. 10-year

1.961%

CLG12.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 12...101.53 ...Down 0.28  (0.3%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




In 2011, the economy added 1.64M jobs, far more than the 940K created in the prior year.  Hiring accelerated enough last year to make 2011 the strongest year for hiring, by far, since 2006.  For 2012, there are predictions that nearly 2M jobs will be added.   Yet so deep were the jobs lost during the recession & for months afterward that it will take years to recoup all the losses.  The recession began in Dec 2007 & the economy began losing jobs consistently starting in Feb 2008.  Over the next 25 months, employers slashed nearly 8.7M jobs.  In the worst month, Jan 2009, a net 820K jobs vanished.  The recession officially ended in Jun 2009.  But the US still has 6M fewer jobs than when the recession began.  Annual job growth is shown below:

2011   1.6M
2010   0.9M
2009  -5.0M
2008  -3.6M 
2007   1,1M
2006    2,1M

US job growth for the past 6 years, at a glance AP


Best Buy reported a same-store sales drop in Dec that was in line with estimates & repeated its forecast for profit this year.  Sales at stores open at least 14 months fell 1.2% while total revenue was $8.4B, about the same as last year.  BBY stepped up holiday discounts to keep customers from going to the competition.  Its share of the US television market increased & improved its showing online, with internet sales gaining 26%.  CEO Dunn said Dec results were lower than expectations, with customer traffic trailing projections until the week before Christmas.  The company reiterated its forecast that EPS for 2012 would be $3.35-$3.65 & estimates by analysts are for $3.40.  The stock liked the news & rose 78¢.

Best Buy Repeats Profit Forecast After December Store Sales Show Stability

Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY)


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Fitch downgraded Hungary's credit rating to junk status, citing a standoff between the gov & intl lenders like the IMF & the EU over possible rescue loans.  Fitch kept a negative outlook on Hungary, indicating a more than a 50% chance for another downgrade within 2 years.  The move followed similar action from Moody's & S&P.  Hungary's shaky finances have been battered this entire week.  Its currency fell to all-time lows during 2 consecutive days & the gov suffered through a rough bond auction in which the interest rates it had to paid to borrow jumped more than 2 percentage points in just a few weeks.  Investors are deeply unsure about the gov's economic policies & whether it can agree upon a rescue loan with the IMF.  Fitch Ratings' decision to cut Hungary's credit rating one notch, to BB+ from BBB-, triggered partly "by further unorthodox economic policies which are undermining investor confidence and complicating the agreement of a new IMF-EU deal."  A gov spokesman said the downgrade was "surprising" considering gov statements confirming the country's intention to soon reach an agreement with the IMF.  While not a large country, this is another debt mess that the Euro powers have to deal with.  Not good.

Fitch downgrades Hungary to junk status AP


The increase in Dec retail sales came at a price, lower margins.  After reporting good sales gains, retailers are  reducing Q4 forecasts guidance for profits because of heavy discounting.  Especially hard hit were stores that cater to middle-income shoppers.  That's not my idea of a strong recovery.  Mon after the close, Alcoa (AA), the first Dow stock to report, is expected to report earnings of a penny (maybe a loss).  The Euro debt mess keeps going from bad to worse.  Dow was up 140 in the first week of trading this year, but that was all due to the big rally on Tues.  This may be another tough month for the markets.

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