Showing posts with label DR Horton. Show all posts
Showing posts with label DR Horton. Show all posts

Friday, January 27, 2012

MIxed markets on uneven earnings and economic data

Dow dropped 74, advancers ahead of decliners 2-1 & NAZ gained 11.  Limited strength in bank stocks pushed the Financial Index higher. 

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value 190.34 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change    0.72     (0.4%)

The MLP index had a massive decline, down 6+ to the 394s, while the REIT index was flattish at 247.  Junk bond funds were a little higher & Treasuries continued in demand, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury below 1.9%.  Oil was about even & gold continued on its winning ways, up almost 10.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart



Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.051%

U.S. 2-year

0.211%

U.S. 10-year

1.895%

CLH12.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 12...99.61 ...Down 0.09  (0.1%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Fitch cut the credit ratings for Italy, Spain & 3 other euro countries, saying they lack financing flexibility in the face of the regional debt crisis.  Italy's ratng was cut 2 levels to A- from A+.  The rating on Spain was also lowered 2 notches, to A from AA-.  Ratings on Belgium, Slovenia & Cyprus were also reduced, while Ireland’s rating was maintained.  “The divergence in monetary and credit conditions across the euro zone and near-term economic outlook highlight the greater vulnerability” these nations face in the event of financing shocks, Fitch said.  All the countries were removed from “ratings watch negative,” though they retain a “negative outlook,” which implies the possibility of a downgrade within 2 years.  No great surprise, but hearing the news is always painful.

Fitch Cuts Italian, Spanish Ratings by Two Notches


Greece is locked in a twin effort to placate its creditors, seeking to secure a crucial debt relief deal with private investors while also tackling pressing demands from its European partners & the IMF for deeper reforms.  Failure on either front would force the country to default by Mar, adding to Europe's debt crisis.  If Greece left the eurozone, it could bring disaster on the country & destabilize the rest of the eurozone.  Sources said there was progress on legal & technical issues withthe IMF (whatever that means).  A Greek gov spokesman said it was "obvious" that progress has been made.  "We hope to conclude as soon as possible."  The  lack of progress in  the talks is mainly due to disagreements on the interest rate cut private investors must accept on the new lower-value Greek bonds with longer maturities that will replace the ones they own.  The writedown is meant to reduce the country's debt-to-GDP ratio from 160% last year to 120% in 2020.  The Greek drama just drags on.

Greece locked in parallel talks over debt AP

  • A man pumps fuel into his truck at a Chevron gas station in Buckeye, Arizona October 27, 2011. REUTERS/Joshua Lott
Photo:   Yahoo

Chevron, a Dow stock, reported lower Q4 earnings, as rising spending on oil & gas projects, & losses at its US refinery business offset gains from higher crude oil prices.  Oil & gas production at the #2 US energy company declined to 2.6M barrels per day (BPD) from 2.8M BPD a year-before, while average oil prices rose about 25%.  The major factors behind the output shortfall were the effect of higher prices on production sharing contracts, lower-than-expected performance at large new offshore projects in the Gulf of Mexico & Angola, & a 3rd-party pipeline rupture & decreased demand in Thailand.  Still, CVX added 1.7B barrels of oil equivalent to its reserves last year,almost double its 2011 output.  Q4 EPS slipped to $2.58 from $2.64 a year earlier & fell short of the $2.84 expected.  Its $9B Angola LNG project is due to start up later this year.  The stock dropped 2.63.

Chevron profit falls as refineries, output sufferReuters

Chevron Corporation (CVX)


stock chart


DR Horton, the top US homebuilder, posted a Q1 profit that beat expectations, helped by a surge in orders indicating & said it was looking at spring selling season with "cautious optimism."  The meltdown in the housing market triggered the 2007-09 recession, but home building has seen growth in the last few qtrs & building permits jumped to a 1 year high in Nov.  DHI, which focuses on lower-end homes for first-time homebuyers, had been hurt as a massive overhang of used & foreclosed homes.  Orders, a leading indicator for builders, rose 17% to $706M.  Q1 EPS was 9¢, compared with a net loss of 6¢ in the prior year period.  Revenue rose 15% to $886M.  Forecasts were for EPS of 4¢ on revenue of $897M.  The stock was up 27¢.

D.R. Horton Reports First-Quarter Profit as Homebuilding Revenue Increases

D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI)


stock chart


The € is over $1.32, up a nickel form the lows earlier this month, on hopes that bondholders of Geek debts can agree on a fair haircut for their investments.  That could have been said last month or the prior month.  Maybe, who knows?  But that kind of thinking is not encouraging for the markets.  Earnings reports are inconsistent, some better than others.  The idea is that higher sales are supposed to bring higher profits.  That is blurred with multi-nationals giving excusees why earnings are not as healthy as they should be.  We hear a lot about the Rep race in FL, but almost nothing about extending lower taxes next month for workers.  That will be a nasty fight, something the markets do not like.  Facebook is said to be coming out with its IPO next week.  Perhaps that will encourage buyers to return.

Dow Industrials


stock chart



Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY!  





Thursday, July 28, 2011

Markets drift lower on increased worries over the debt debate

Stocks began the day much higher, but sold off in the PM on a realization that efforts to raise the debt ceiling are going nowhere.  Dow fell 62 (135 below the high), decliners ahead of advancers 3-2 & NAZ inched up 1.  Bank stocks, after a good gain in the AM, had to settle for break even.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value199.69One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change   0.09     (0.0%)

MLPs & REITs were flattish as were junk bond funds.  Treasuries rose, bringing the yield on the 10 year bond down to 2.95%. Oil was also even as traders waited to learn more about the possible impact of a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.  Gold fell for the 2nd straight day on investor sales after the metal surged to a record.

Alerian MLP Index


Value360.41One-Year Chart for Alerian MLP Index (AMZ:IND)
Change    -0.33    (-0.1%)

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.071%

U.S. 2-year

0.418%

U.S. 10-year

2.949%

CLU11.NYM...Crude Oil Sep 11...97.41 ...Up 0.01  (0.0%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]


Get the latest daily market update below:




DR Horton profit fell 43% in its fiscal Q3 as the homebuilder closed on fewer homes & new home orders declined.  But earnings beat estimates & management said the company is in position to be profitable for FY2011.  Closings fell 33% in Q3 from a year earlier, while its new home orders slipped about 1%. The sales results were roughly in line with forecasts for a 31% drop in closings & no change in the level of orders.  EPS was 9¢ versus 16¢ last year.  The latest results included $16.4M in pretax charges & losses from paying debt off early.  Revenue dropped 30% to $975M from $1.4B.  Analysts were expecting a profit of 5¢ on $985M in revenue.  The stock rose 30¢.

D.R. Horton’s Profit Leads Homebuilder Rally

D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI)


stock chart




Photo:   Yahoo

Exxon Mobil, a Dividend Aristocrat, profits rose 41% in Q2, when the price of gasoline & other fuels jumped to 3-year highs.  Its Q2 income of $10.6B is the largest since it set a net income record of $14.8B in Q3 of 2008.  But XOM sounded a cautionary note, saying sluggish business investment, lower consumer spending & high debt continue to weigh on energy demand.  EPS was $2.18, sharply ahead of  $1.60 last year.  Revenue grew 36% to $125.5B.  However results fell short of estimates for $2.30 for EPS & revenue topped projections of $119B.  The stock fell 1.85 after trading flattish in 2011.

Exxon Misses Estimates on Lower Refining Profits

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)


stock chart


Greek officials launched talks with intl bankers on details of a complex plan to restructure the loan-dependent country's privately held debt under a new bailout deal.  Evangelos Venizelos, Finance Minister, said the negotiations started "in a most encouraging manner."  We have started (the talks) and will conclude very soon because we face specific bonds maturing in Aug & Sep and want either to have finished before that or to have formulated a transitional framework until we have finished," Venizelos told parliament. What else can he say?  This agreement called for banks, pension funds & other private institutions holding Greek debt to voluntarily swap their bonds for new ones with lower interest rates or slightly smaller face value.  Provided overall private sector participation meets a targeted 90%, the swap will involve €135B worth of bonds that mature by the end of 2020, with bondholders taking a 21% loss.  This is a variation on default!

Greek FM: Athens bond swap talks 'encouraging' AP


Senator Harry Reid said he will move tonight to kill the House debt-ceiling plan, paving the way for Senate votes this weekend on a possible compromise to avert a potential US default.  Who knows where this is all going?  Chances are the politicos will come up with some temporary kind of funding bill to allow the Treasury to squeak by the Aug deadline & avoid default.  But don't expect a final bill over the weekend.  A bigger question is, how will the rating agencies take the increase in the debt ceiling?  Everybody is slopping around billions as if they were just small poker chips.  Sadly few really understand numbers.  But Dow has been handling all this confusion very well, down only 500 from its recent highs.  Not that bad considering how much is at stake! 

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart  



Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY!  





Find out what's inside Trend TV  

Friday, November 12, 2010

Markets tumble on threats China may raise interst rates

Stocks sank from the start & remained under water all day.  Worries about the discord coming from the G-20 meeting in Korea hurt & a sense that China might have to limit growth with a renewed threat of inflation depressed stock markets.  Dow dropped 90, decliners over advancers 4-1 & NAZ fell 37.  Bank stocks were lower bringing the Financial Index down to 200, an important level that has been zig-zagged over for months. 

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value 200.97 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change  -3.12  (-1.5%)



The Alerian MLP Index dropped 3+ to under 360 but is down only 1+  for the week.  It is still flying at heights only imagined last year.  The REIT index is down 2½ to the 218s & down a massive 12 this week (from its yearly highs).  Junk bond funds slipped another 1% as they also had a tough week.  Treasuries had a major sell off.  Today the yield on the 10 year Treasury bond rose a startling 11 basis points to 2.76% & shot up more than 20 basis points this week (huge for these securities).  These yields are challenging interim highs reached 2 months ago when they went over 2.8%.

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month
0.12%
U.S. 2-year
0.50%
U.S. 10-year
2.75%


Alerian MLP Index   ---   YTD



Dow Jones REIT Index   ---   YTD



10-Year Treasury Yield Index   ---   YTD




Commodities, along with stocks, had a rough day, capping a very bad week.  The health of the economy in China seems to be at the center of trader worries.


CLZ10.NYM....Crude Oil Dec 10...84.95 .......Down 2.86  (3.3%)

GCX10.CMX...,Gold Nov 10......1,365.70 ...,Down 37.40  (2.7%)





$$ Gold Super Cycle $$  



D.R. Horton Says Loss Narrowed on Lower Writedowns

Photo:  Bloomberg


DR Horton (DHI), 2nd largest home-builder, reported  its loss narrowed in its fiscal Q4 as it took fewer writedowns on the value of its properties.  But revenue slid 9% as the company sold fewer homes while new orders dropped 21%.  DHI said the housing market became even more challenging after a tax credit expired in Apr. Absent the gov incentives & despite mortgage rates remaining at near-historic lows, many homebuyers are opting to stay on the sidelines, put off by high unemployment, tight credit & uncertainty about home prices.  The expiration of the tax credit has weighed heavily on Horton, as first-time homebuyers account for more than half of its business.  DHI new orders in the Q4 totaled 3,979 homes with a value of $817M, down from 5,008 homes valued at $1.0B last year. Revenue dropped to $925M from $1.01B last year.  It lost $8.9M, (3¢ per share), in the qtr ended Sep 30, less bad than last year when it lost 74¢.  The results included $30.8M in charges for inventory impairments & land option cost write-offs while last year results included $192M in similar charges.  The stock fell 66¢ & has been muddling after its initial recovery from the depth of the recession early last year. 

D.R. Horton Sees `Challenging' Year as Home Sales May Decline

DR Horton   ---   2 years





Apple IPad Sales May Miss Estimates

Photo:  Bloomberg

There is a report that a manager of the top-performing diversified  mutual fund in the past 10 years, sold most of his stake in Apple (AAPL) in Q3.  His funds had owned over 1M shares, leaving his holdings  at 110K shares, according to a filing with the SEC. There is worry that the iPad & other tablets may not sell as well as analysts had estimated if customers cut back spending on new technology or opt for new smartphones & laptops instead.  Competition from big players is heating up for the iPad & iPhone.  The focus for AAPL bulls is on the new iPad which is expected early next year.  The stock has had a stellar run at a time when even some of the best performing stocks have had little or only modest gains.  AAPL fell 8 (2½%) to the 308s. 

IPad Sales May Miss Estimates as Customers Trim Spendingat Bloomberg

Apple   ---   2 years






This has been a profit taking week on just about all fronts.  Most markets have had unbelievable runs in the last 2-3 months & simply may be getting tired (or getting ahead of themselves).  There has been no dramatically new news during this time other than a general awareness that a 2nd dip for this recession is not likely. The increase in Treasury rates (starting today the Federal Reserve is buying under its QE2 program) could hurt high yield securities which have had fabulous runs aided by investors looking for alternative investments with high yields.  Intl trade & business is the main focus of attention with interest more sovereign debt problems in Europe (i.e. Ireland) & worries that China growth may cool.  Selling of a major stake in AAPL by a prominent investor may signal that long bullish runs were not meant to last.

Dow Jones Industrials   ---   YTD






Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY!  




Perfect "R" Portfolio Report. Aimed at retirement accounts and follows rules most retirement accounts require!  



Find out what's inside Trend TV!