Showing posts with label European debt crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label European debt crisis. Show all posts

Thursday, August 30, 2012

Markets fall on comments from Chinese premier

Dow dropped 125, decliners over advancers more than 4-1 & NAZ fell 35.  The Financial Index was down 2 to the 201s.  The MLP & REIT indices were each off fractionally, junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries rose.  The yield on the 10 year Treasury has fallen 20 basis points in 2 weeks from a greater desire for risk averse investments.  Oil dropped for a 2nd day on speculation oil producers would restore Gulf of Mexico output quickly after Tropical Storm Isaac passed.  Gold prices hardly budged.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


stock chart

Treasury Yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.091%

U.S. 2-year

0.262%

U.S. 10-year

1.616%

CLV12.NYM....Crude Oil Oct 12...95.09 ...Down 0.40  (0.4%)

GCQ12.CMX...Gold Aug 12.....1,665.20 ...Down 1.30  (0.1%)




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  • <p>               In this Tuesday, Aug. 21, 2012, photo,  job seekers fill out applications at a construction job fair in New York. The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits was unchanged last week at a seasonally adjusted 374,000, suggesting slow improvement in the job market. The Labor Department said Thursday, Aug. 30, 2012 that the four-week moving average, a less volatile measure, increased to 370,250.(AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
Photo:   Yahoo

The number seeking unemployment benefits was unchanged last week at 374K, suggesting slow improvement in the job market.  The Labor Dept said that the 4-week moving average increased to 370K.  Applications for unemployment benefits reflect the pace of layoffs & have risen slightly over the past 3 weeks, though they remain lower than in spring, when hiring nearly stalled.  Last week's number was revised upward to 374K from the 372K that was reported initially.  Still, when applications fall consistently below 375K, it generally indicates that hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment rate.  The latest applications data suggest that the gov employment report for Aug (released next week) will show job gains near the recent monthly average of 100K, not enough to drive down unemployment significantly.  Today's report said the number receiving benefits continues to decline, falling to 5.5M, down 62K from the previous week.

Jobless Claims in U.S. Unchanged Last Week at One-Month High


Consumer Spending in U.S. Climbs for First Time in Three Months

Photo:   Bloomberg

Americans spent at the fastest pace in 5 months in Jul after earning a little more.  The increase in income & consumer spending could help boost an economy mired in subpar growth.  Consumer spending rose 0.4% in Jul from Jun, according to the Commerce Dept.  That followed no change in Jun & a slight decline in May.  Income grew 0.3%, matching the gains from May & Jun.  Americans also earned 0.3% more after paying taxes.  The savings rate after taxes dipped to 4.2% in Jul, down slightly from 4.3% in Jun, the highest in a year.  Call this moderately good news.


  • <p>               German Chancellor Angela Merkel, left, shakes hands with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao after a joint press conference at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing Thursday, Aug. 30, 2012. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
Photo:   Yahoo

Expressing alarm at Europe's debt problems, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao called on Greece, Spain & Italy to embrace budget cuts & get their finances in order after meeting with visiting German Chancellor Merkel.  Wen said China is willing to keep buying European bonds but gave no sign China will bail out the eurozone.  Merkel was in Beijing for talks aimed at boosting trade & allaying Chinese fears about Europe's heavy go debts.  China has a stake in a resolution because Europe is its biggest export market & it holds $B in European bonds.  "The European debt crisis has continued to worsen, giving rise to serious concerns in the international community. Frankly speaking, I am also worried," Wen said.  He cited uncertainty over whether Greece leaves the eurozone & whether Italy & Spain will take "comprehensive rescue measures," a reference to spending cuts & tax increases to balance their budgets.  "Resolving these two problems rests with whether Greece, Spain, Italy and other countries have the determination for reform," the premier said.  "Resolving the European debt problem requires fiscal tightening and finding balance within individual economies."  Wen's comments were unusually pointed for China, which says govs should not interfere in each other's affairs.  But the country's leaders are increasingly worried about the safety of their European debt holdings & European economies where Chinese companies are expanding.  The European Financial Stability Fund, set up to lend to troubled govs, says China & other Asian investors have bought 40% of its bonds but has released no other details.

Wen Tells Merkel Spain, Italy, Greece Need More Reforms


While lower, markets are really not doing very much.  Volume is light & this decline probably has little meaning.  But comments from China were not reassuring that it is around to bailout euro countires in trouble.  In addition, there are just 4 months left before federal tax hikes & budget cuts go into effect.  I have alwasy believed that Congress will not get its act together before Xmas & then explain the delays as its way of doing a good job.  Meanwhile, businesses not sure about what will happen next year are holding off some expansion plans.  Dow is holding just over 13K.

Dow Jones Industrials


stock chart






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Friday, August 3, 2012

Markets soar on a better than expected jobs number

Dow surged 204 going over 13K, advancers over decliners 7-1 & NAZ rose 57. The Financial Index was up almost 5 to the 199s, its best level in 3 months. The MLP index added 2 to the 391s & the REIT index shot up almost 3 to the 269s (nearly matching its yearly highs).  Junk bond funds gained & Treasuries pulled back as stocks rallied.  Oil rallied, trying to get back over 90 while gold edged higher.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.076%

U.S. 2-year

0.232%

U.S. 10-year

1.551%

CLU12.NYM....Crude Oil Sep 12...89.79 ...Up 2.66  (3.1%)

GCQ12.CMX...Gold Aug 12......1,594.20 ....Up 6.80  (0.4%)



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  • <p>               FILE - In this July 25, 2012, file photo, people looking for work talk at a Primerica job booth at a job fair in San Jose, Calif. U.S. hiring was likely sluggish in July for a fourth straight month, held back by slower economic growth and an uncertain outlook. (AP Photo/Paul Sakuma, File)
Photo:   Yahoo

Employers added 163K jobs in Jul, a hopeful sign after 3 months of sluggish hiring.  But the Labor Department said that the unemployment rate rose to 8.3% from 8.2% in Jun.  Jul hiring was the best since Feb.  Still, the economy has added an average of 151K jobs a month this year, enough to keep up with population growth but not enough to drive down the unemployment rate.  A better outlook on hiring could make the Federal Reserve (FED) reluctant to take more action to spur growth.  The FED, which ended a policy meeting yesterday, signaled in a statement a growing inclination to take further steps if hiring doesn't pick up.

U.S. Payrolls Rise More Than Forecast; Unemployment 8.3%


Procter & Gamble Profit Tops Estimates Amid Price Increases

Photo:   Bloomberg

Procter & Gamble, a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, posted a higher-than-expected quarterly profit despite a drop in sales, just weeks after it took the blame for its disappointing performance & said it was focusing on ways to improve.  The forecast for the current qtr (fiscal Q1) is below the estimate by analysts, suggesting it could take several more months before the bulk of the company's restructuring efforts pay off.  PG also said it would repurchase $4B worth of its shares this fiscal year.  In Jun it said it did not expect to do so because it wanted to preserve its credit rating.  CFO Moeller said PG had changed its mind because it had growing confidence in its turnaround plan & more cash on hand than it had anticipated in Jun, while interest rates continued to fall.  EPS for fiscal Q4 was $1.24, up from 84¢, a year earlier.  Excluding some items, EPS was 82¢ versus an estimate of 77¢.  The stock rose 1.78. 

Procter & Gamble Profit Tops Estimates Amid Price Increases

Procter & Gamble (PG)


stock chart


European Central Bank President Mario Draghi

Photo:   Bloomberg

After more than 2 years of incremental crisis management & false starts, a bargain is beginning to emerge between Europe's politicians & central bankers over how to calm bond markets & end the debt tumult that threatens the survival of the €.  The ECB sketched out its side of the deal yesterday, offering to buy Italian & Spanish bonds on the market as long as the bailout fund makes purchases directly from the 2 countries’ treasuries & ties them to tough conditions.  Mario Draghi offered only a glimpse of the new strategy, with the actual interventions weeks or months away & a host of obstacles standing in the way before Europe can claim to be on a path out of the crisis that emerged in Greecce in late 2009.  Investors looking for a quicker fix sold the € & stocks of at-risk countries.  The € jumped over $1.24 on the initial ECB announcement, falling back as Draghi’s caution that “it was not a decision, it was guidance” sank in.  Then the currency slipped a penny.  The yield difference between 10-year Italian bonds & similar-maturity German bunds narrowed 7 basis points to 502 basis points, after jumping 54 basis points.  Spain’s yield difference compared to bunds rose 7 basis points to 600 basis points.  Skeptics recalled the failure of European authorities to deliver on prior crisis-fighting pledges, whether by restricting the use of the original €440B ($535B) rescue fund or forcing through a restructuring of Greece’s debt after promising not to.  No quick fix here.

ECB-Politicians’ Anti-Crisis Bargain Starts to Emerge


This is a day for the bulls.  Markets loved the jobs data & buyers are in a very good mood.  However fundamental problems remain.  The euro debt mess dribbles on, the US economic recovery is not getting a passing grade & the status of the Chinese economy is unclear.  But bulls are happy to see the Dow back over 13K.  Of course, it has not strayed far from that level for months, so maybe it's not all that important of a signal.

Dow Jones Industrials


stock chart







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Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Lower markets on increased worries over Euro debts

Dow tumbled 134, decliners over advancers 7-1 & NAZ fell 34.  Bank stocks sank, taking the Financial Index down 3 to the 188s (close to its 185 low 2 weeks ago). 

The Alerian MLP Index pulled back 4 to the 371s & the REIT index lost almost 4 to 249.  Junk bond funds were weak but Treasuries soared, bringing the yield on the 10 year Treasury down to 1.65% (a new record low).  Brent oil fell to a 5-month low on speculation that US crude stockpiles climbed to the highest level since 1990 & as the euro weakened.  Oil in the US sank to its lowest level since Oct.  Gold is s near its yearly low as frightened money is only going into Treasuries.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.076%

U.S. 2-year

0.274%

U.S. 10-year

1.644%

CLN12.NYM...Crude Oil Jul 12...88.51 ...Down 2.25  (2.5%)

GCM12.CMX...Gold Jun 12...1,535.10 ...Down 13.60  (0.9%)



Get the latest daily market update below:



EU Weighs Direct Aid for Banks, Common Bonds as Crisis Antidote

Spain
Photo:   Bloomberg

The European Commission called for direct aid for troubled banks, & called for a Europe-wide deposit-guarantee system & common bond issuance as antidotes to the debt crisis threatening to overwhelm Spain.  The commission sided with Spain in proposing that the euro’s permanent bailout fund inject cash to banks instead of channeling the money via national govs. It also offered Spain extra time to squeeze its deficit.  The use of the rescue fund to recapitalize banks “might be envisaged” & would “sever the link between banks and the sovereigns,” the commission said today.  Its president, said “it is important to use all possibilities offered in terms of flexibility.”  Proposals for more liberal use of European bailout money are likely to face resistance in creditor countries such as Germany, Finland & the Netherlands, the scenes of growing taxpayer opposition to more aid.  Signs of stress increased as Italy missed its target in a bond auction, driving its 10-year yields as high as 6.01%, the highest since Jan 31.  Doubts over the health of Spain’s banks pushed up Spanish 10-year yields as high as 6.70%, the highest since Nov 28.  This situation looks pretty ugly.

EU Weighs Direct Aid to Banks, Euro Bonds as Crisis Antidote

  • Realtor Bolin shows a home to Amy and Eddie Deon in Riverside, California May 24, 2012. REUTERS/Alex Gallardo

Photo:   Yahoo

Contracts to purchase previously owned homes unexpectedly fell in Apr to a 4-month low, undermininge recent optimism that the housing sector was touching bottom.  The National Association of Realtors said its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in Apr, fell 5.5% to 95.5, its lowest level since Dec & much worse than expectations for the index to rise 0.1% after a previously reported 4.1% gain.  The housing market has been one of the US economy's weakest links as it recovers from the recession, but some think the sector will add to economic growth in 2012 for the first time since 2005.  This report could temper some of that optimism.  Millions owe more on their homes than they are worth, making them more cautious about spending & holding back the economic recovery.  After a debt-fueled housing bubble, prices have fallen about a third since 2006 & the housing market continues to be saddled with an oversupply of unsold properties.  The recovery in housing continues to hobble along.

Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Declined Last Month by Most in a Year


Economic confidence in the euro area declined more than forecasted in May to the lowest in 2½ years after inconclusive Greek elections raised the specter of a euro breakup & Spain struggled to shore up its banks.  An index of executive & consumer sentiment in the euro area fell to 90.6 from a revised 92.9 in Apr, the European Commission said, the lowest since Oct 2009 & below the 91.9 forecast.  The economic slump shows signs of deepening after Greece failed to form a gov following May 6 elections while Spain struggles to clean up its banks amid recession & unemployment of more than 20%.  Some believe that Greece could leave the euro area by next year.  Euro- zone manufacturing & services output contracted more than estimated in May & German business sentiment had the steepest decline since Aug.  The news out of Europe remains glum.



Yesterday's rally did not have legs.  The Euro debt mess will not be resolved anytime soon.  It's just going to get worse.  Scotch tape approaches to solve fundamental problems ain't good enough.  And the US economy, while doing better, is not moving forward on all cylinders.  Dow is down 800 in May & there is no sign of relief in its slide.

Dow Industrials


stock chart







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