Showing posts with label pending home sales. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pending home sales. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Markets meander after GDP data is revised upward

Dow went up 4, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ added 4.  The Financial Index increased a fraction in the 203s. The MLP index was flattish & the REIT index was up a smidgen.  Junk bond funds were mixed to higher & Treasuries slid back.  Oil fell on a higher oil supplies & there was profit taking in gold. 

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.096%

U.S. 2-year

0.270%

U.S. 10-year

1.651%

CLV12.NYMCrude Oil Oct 1295.45 Down 0.88 (0.9%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Rebounded in July

Photo:   Bloomberg

More contracts to purchase previously owned homes were signed in Jul, another sign that housing will keep strengthening in H2.  The index of pending home resales climbed 2.4%, exceeding the 1% gain expected,  The gauge rose to 101.7, the highest since Apr 2010.  Home buying is coming within reach for more as less expensive properties & record-low borrowing costs combine to stabilize the industry that helped trigger the recession.  Faster hiring & easier access to credit are needed to reduce foreclosures, a hurdle to a more sustained recovery.  3 of 4 regions showed an increase, including a 5.2% gain in the South, & a 3.4% advance in the Midwest.  But the number of contracts in the West dropped 1.7%.  Compared with a year earlier, the index increased 15% after an 8.4% gain in the prior 12-month period.  Pending home sales are considered a leading indicator because they track contract signings.  Purchases of existing homes are tabulated when a contract closes, typically a month or 2 later, & made up more than 90% of the housing market last year.

Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Rebounded in July


Parties in Greece's coalition gov have reached broad agreement on a major new austerity package demanded by the country's creditors but are still negotiating over the fine print, according to the finance minister.  Yannis Stournaras said officials from the 3 parties in the coalition would hold further talks to settle remaining "technical" issues.  "The basic scenario has been finalized, there are one or two minor issues that remain unresolved," Stournaras said after a meeting with the heads of the Socialist PASOK & Democratic Left parties.  The 2-month-old gov has been deliberating for weeks on how to save €11.5B ($14.4B) in 2013 & 2014.  The cutbacks form part of Greece's bailout commitments to its European partners & the IMF in exchange for a harsh austerity program designed to reduce yawning budget deficits.  Austerity inspectors from the troika are due in Athens early next month for a fresh overview of the country's efforts.  Hinging on a favorable report is the next rescue loan installment worth €31B.  If they find Greece has been falling back on its commitments & halts the installments, the country faces leaving the eurozone, triggering further financial chaos across the region.  New cutbacks are expected to include further reductions in pensions & broader civil service pay cuts.  The head of Greece's main GSEE union said the new measures would further harm salaried workers and pensioners.  This debt mess keeps plodding along with progress being difficult to see.

Greek coalition leaders back outline of new cuts AP


Fed Beige Book Says Economy Grew ‘Gradually’ as Housing Improved

Photo:   Bloomberg

The economy continued to grow gradually in Jul & early Aug, but manufacturing activity was softening in many areas of the country according to the Federal Reserve (FED).  In its Beige Book report of anecdotal information on business activity, retail activity, including auto sales, had picked up since the last report.  "Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve districts suggest economic activity continued to expand gradually in July and early August across most regions and sectors," the Beige Book said.  The economic snapshot was prepared for use by FED officials at their  meeting on Sep12-13, when policymakers will debate whether further central bank bond purchases are needed to spark a stronger recovery.  The economy grew at a 1.7% annual rate in Q2, supported by exports & investment in the construction of nonresidential structures.  The pace was a slowdown from the 2.0% rate set Q1.  The Beige Book captured the beginning of Q3, suggested the speed of the recovery was falling short of what was needed to spur faster hiring.  "Most districts reported that employment was holding steady or growing only slightly," the FED said.  It also noted that manufacturing was softening in many districts, matching findings from recent regional factory surveys.  Much of the slowdown is blamed on weak demand overseas, especially in Asia.  "Many districts reported some softening in manufacturing, either a slowdown in the rate of growth or a decline in the level of sales, output or orders," the FED said.  "Across the districts, few manufacturing firms reported any major hiring or layoffs."  Economies around the world are stumbling, but maybe not badly enough for the FED to start a new bond buying program.

Fed Says in Survey Economy Grew Gradually as Housing Rose


This was a good day to take a nap while the markets stumbled around in search of direction.  Volume continues light while many are away on holiday.  The are reminders that the euro debt mess is still with us as leaders are groping, looking for solutions.  Dow has hardly budged from 13.1K for almost 4 weeks in slow trading. 

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Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Markets rise on improved pending home sales

Dow rose 81, advancers over decliners almost 4-1 & NAZ was up18.  The Financial Index added 1+ to the 191s (4 below its monthly high & this has been a good month for the index).  The MLP index gained 3+ to the 364s & the REIT index was up 1 to 253.  Junk bond funds rose & Treasuries were about even.  Oil increased after the Energy Dept said stockpiles fell less than expected, dropping 133K barrels to 387M barrels.  Gold prices hardly moved.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.096%

U.S. 2-year

0.305%

U.S. 10-year

1.626%

CLQ12.NYM....Crude Oil Aug 12...80.24 ......Up 0.88  (1.1%)

GCM12.CMX...Gold Jun 12.......1,564.00 ...Down 10.00  (0.6%)



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  • Washers and dryers are seen on display at a store in New York July 28, 2010. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
Photo:   Yahoo

Demand for long-lasting US manufactured goods rebounded more than expected in May, but slowing global growth suggest the momentum might not be sustained.  Slower growth in China & a looming recession in the debt-crisis ridden euro zone have taken some of the shine off the domestic manufacturing sector, leaving the economy mired in a soft patch.  But the report from the Commerce Dept suggested the sector, which has shouldered the economy's recovery from the 2007-09 recession, was not falling apart.  Durable goods orders increased 1.1% after a revised 0.2% decrease in Apr, well above forecasts for a 0.4% increase.  Orders were lifted by a 2.7% jump in transportation equipment as aircraft bookings picked up & motor vehicles demand increased, though at a slower pace than in the prior month.  Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.4% after dropping 0.6% in Apr.  But May's strength, which came after 2 straight months of declines, could prove temporary.

Durable Goods Orders in U.S. Rise More Than Forecast


  • <p>               German Chancellor Angela Merkel arrives at the weekly cabinet meeting to discuss the country's budget 2013 at the chancellery in Berlin, Wednesday, June 27, 2012. German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Tuesday told a caucus meeting that there won't be a full shared debt liability in Europe "as long as I live," according to a lawmaker from Merkel's governing coalition. (AP Photo/Markus Schreiber)
Photo:   Yahoo

Chancellor Merkel has insisted that Europe can pool its debt only when govs' compliance with fiscal rules can be ensured.  She maintains that introducing so-called eurobonds now would be "economically wrong" after addressed the Parliament amid mounting pressure for her country to give up its fierce resistance to pooling debt.  She argues it makes no sense to share liability for debt before Europe has undergone a long process of integration & installed tough control mechanisms.  The chancellor said a quick move to eurobonds or other forms of joint liability would be constitutionally impossible in Germany and insisted that "supervision & liability must go hand in hand."  She said they could only be considered if & when "sufficient supervision is ensured."

Merkel Rebuffs Rajoy Plea, Shuts Door to Euro Area Bonds


Rate on 30-year mortgage down to record 3.88 pct.

Photo:   Yahoo

Contracts to purchase previously owned US homes matched a 2-year high in May, fueling optimism the housing market is poised for a recovery.  The National Association of Realtors said its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed last month, rose 5.9% to 101.1, matched a 2-year high reached in Mar & the gain was the largest since Oct 2011.  Before Mar, the last time pending home sales were as high was Apr 2010 when buyers were rushing to beat the deadline for a home-buyer tax credit, which was about to expire, the NAR said.  "The housing market is clearly superior this year compared with the past four years," Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist said.  "We're on track to see a 9 to 10 percent improvement in total sales for 2012."  Forecasts expected signed contracts, which lead home sales by a month or 2, to rise 1.0% after a previously reported 5.5% drop in Apr.  Housing is making a comeback, but it's remains tentative.

Pending Sales of U.S. Homes Climbed More Than Forecast in May


Markets are meandering again, with an upward bias.  The lack of horrible news out of Europe is bringing out the buyers.  However big intl problems have not gone away.  There are hopes China will add stimulus to its economy.  The US housing data sounds good.  We are also going into the end of the month/qtr when anything is possible as money managers even out positions.  Dow is down 20 this week, up 200 in Jun but down 600 in Q2.

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Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Lower markets on increased worries over Euro debts

Dow tumbled 134, decliners over advancers 7-1 & NAZ fell 34.  Bank stocks sank, taking the Financial Index down 3 to the 188s (close to its 185 low 2 weeks ago). 

The Alerian MLP Index pulled back 4 to the 371s & the REIT index lost almost 4 to 249.  Junk bond funds were weak but Treasuries soared, bringing the yield on the 10 year Treasury down to 1.65% (a new record low).  Brent oil fell to a 5-month low on speculation that US crude stockpiles climbed to the highest level since 1990 & as the euro weakened.  Oil in the US sank to its lowest level since Oct.  Gold is s near its yearly low as frightened money is only going into Treasuries.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.076%

U.S. 2-year

0.274%

U.S. 10-year

1.644%

CLN12.NYM...Crude Oil Jul 12...88.51 ...Down 2.25  (2.5%)

GCM12.CMX...Gold Jun 12...1,535.10 ...Down 13.60  (0.9%)



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EU Weighs Direct Aid for Banks, Common Bonds as Crisis Antidote

Spain
Photo:   Bloomberg

The European Commission called for direct aid for troubled banks, & called for a Europe-wide deposit-guarantee system & common bond issuance as antidotes to the debt crisis threatening to overwhelm Spain.  The commission sided with Spain in proposing that the euro’s permanent bailout fund inject cash to banks instead of channeling the money via national govs. It also offered Spain extra time to squeeze its deficit.  The use of the rescue fund to recapitalize banks “might be envisaged” & would “sever the link between banks and the sovereigns,” the commission said today.  Its president, said “it is important to use all possibilities offered in terms of flexibility.”  Proposals for more liberal use of European bailout money are likely to face resistance in creditor countries such as Germany, Finland & the Netherlands, the scenes of growing taxpayer opposition to more aid.  Signs of stress increased as Italy missed its target in a bond auction, driving its 10-year yields as high as 6.01%, the highest since Jan 31.  Doubts over the health of Spain’s banks pushed up Spanish 10-year yields as high as 6.70%, the highest since Nov 28.  This situation looks pretty ugly.

EU Weighs Direct Aid to Banks, Euro Bonds as Crisis Antidote

  • Realtor Bolin shows a home to Amy and Eddie Deon in Riverside, California May 24, 2012. REUTERS/Alex Gallardo

Photo:   Yahoo

Contracts to purchase previously owned homes unexpectedly fell in Apr to a 4-month low, undermininge recent optimism that the housing sector was touching bottom.  The National Association of Realtors said its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in Apr, fell 5.5% to 95.5, its lowest level since Dec & much worse than expectations for the index to rise 0.1% after a previously reported 4.1% gain.  The housing market has been one of the US economy's weakest links as it recovers from the recession, but some think the sector will add to economic growth in 2012 for the first time since 2005.  This report could temper some of that optimism.  Millions owe more on their homes than they are worth, making them more cautious about spending & holding back the economic recovery.  After a debt-fueled housing bubble, prices have fallen about a third since 2006 & the housing market continues to be saddled with an oversupply of unsold properties.  The recovery in housing continues to hobble along.

Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Declined Last Month by Most in a Year


Economic confidence in the euro area declined more than forecasted in May to the lowest in 2½ years after inconclusive Greek elections raised the specter of a euro breakup & Spain struggled to shore up its banks.  An index of executive & consumer sentiment in the euro area fell to 90.6 from a revised 92.9 in Apr, the European Commission said, the lowest since Oct 2009 & below the 91.9 forecast.  The economic slump shows signs of deepening after Greece failed to form a gov following May 6 elections while Spain struggles to clean up its banks amid recession & unemployment of more than 20%.  Some believe that Greece could leave the euro area by next year.  Euro- zone manufacturing & services output contracted more than estimated in May & German business sentiment had the steepest decline since Aug.  The news out of Europe remains glum.



Yesterday's rally did not have legs.  The Euro debt mess will not be resolved anytime soon.  It's just going to get worse.  Scotch tape approaches to solve fundamental problems ain't good enough.  And the US economy, while doing better, is not moving forward on all cylinders.  Dow is down 800 in May & there is no sign of relief in its slide.

Dow Industrials


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Monday, March 26, 2012

Markets rise on Bernanke comments

Dow shot up 132, advancers over decliners 4-1 & NAZ gained 35.  Bank stocks led the way again, taking the Financial Index up 2+ to the 214s (not seen since May).

The MLP index was up a fraction in the 397s & the REIT index rose 2+ to the 252s (within spitting distance of its yearly highs).  Junk bond funds & Treasuries were mixed to lower, still digesting the recent run-up in yields.  Oil was flattish but gold advanced the most in 4 weeks on speculation that investors will buy more bullion as an alternative to the slumping dollar.  

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.071%

U.S. 2-year

0.348%

U.S. 10-year

2.262%

CLK12.NYM....Crude Oil May 12...106.99 .....Up 0.12 (0.1%)

GCH12.CMX...Gold Mar 12.........1,679.70 ...Up 17.40  (1.1%)




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  • A real estate sales sign sits outside of a house for sale in Phoenix, Arizona June 2, 2009. REUTERS/Joshua Lott

Photo:   Yahoo

Contracts to purchase previously owned homes unexpectedly fell in Feb, suggesting a further pull back in sales as the housing market struggles to regain its footing.  The National Association of Realtors said its Pending Home Sales Index slipped 0.5% to 96.5 (from a 2 year high).  Expectations were for signed contracts to advance 1% after a previously reported 2% rise.  Contracts signed were up 9.2% in the 12 months to Feb.  Contracts fell in 3 of the 4 regions, but jumped 6.5% in the Midwest.  Data last week showed sales of previously owned homes fell in Feb & the decline in signed contracts suggests home purchases could be weak again in Mar.  More mixed message about the housing recovery struggling to gain traction

Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Hold Near Two-Year High


Ben Bernanke

Photo:   Bloomberg

Ben Bernanke says the job market remains weak despite 3 months of strong hiring & that the Federal Reserve's (FED) existing policies will help boost growth.  Further job gains will likely require more robust consumer & business demand, Bernanke said.  These comments suggest the FED is prepared to keep interest rates near zero unless the economy improves substantially.  While the job gains have led to some increase in consumer confidence & incomes, "we have not seen that in a persuasive way yet," Bernanke said & added that the FED needed to "remain cautious" in deciding what its next moves should be.  He offered some reasons for the unexpected decline in unemployment.  Employers may be hiring rapidly because they cut too many jobs during the recession.  He also said that gov revisions may later show stronger economic growth over the past year.  But Bernanke cautioned that he doesn't expect the unemployment rate to keep falling at the current pace without much stronger growth.  He also noted that the rate is still roughly 3 percentage points higher than its average over the 20 years preceding the recession.  "Despite the recent improvement, the job market remains far from normal," Bernanke said. "The number of people working and total hours worked are still significantly below pre-crisis peaks." 



U.S. Treasury Said to See Ally IPO Unlikely, Press for Sale

Photo:   Bloomberg

After putting $17B into a bailout of Ally Financial, the Treasury has indicated it would prefer a breakup & sale of the lender fearing an IPO may not succeed because of the company’s high cost of capital relative to other banks, the potential bankruptcy of a mortgage unit & its recent performance in Federal Reserve stress tests.  Instead, the Treasury is pushing for Ally to split into at least 2 pieces, one part would be the auto finance unit (one of the largest in the US) & the other would be its online depository franchise, with $28B in retail deposits.  But Ally CEO Michael Carpenter & its board have resisted the call for a split. The Treasury owns 74% of Ally (the Detroit- based former finance arm of GM).  Ally is likely to put its Residential Capital mortgage into bankruptcy in the next few weeks & sell some assets in a court-supervised sale.  The firm also may lose its preferred auto-lender agreement with automaker Chrysler, which is seeking other banks to potentially replace Ally.  All bailouts have not worked out well.

U.S. Treasury Said to Urge Sale of Ally Financial as Prospect for IPO Dims


Big Ben is making his presence known.  Easy money sounds good & more easy money sounds even better.  Following a sluggish week, the bulls have returned.  The chart below only tells half the story of the 6 month bull run.  If it reaches 13.4K, that would be a 3K advance, one of its biggest in history over that time span, not to mention more than double the recession lows 3 years ago.  But this may be a wishy washy year with Europe in recession, China growth slowing, high US unemployment & looming tax hikes next year.

Dow Industrials


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