Showing posts with label durable orders. Show all posts
Showing posts with label durable orders. Show all posts

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Markets soar on euro bailout hopes from the ECB

Dow surged 211 to close near its highs, advancers over decliners a modest 3-1 & NAZ gained 39.  The Financial Index rose 3 to 195 after trading sideways for more than a month.  The MLP index was up 4 to the 393s & the REIT index added 2+ to the 263s.  Junk bond funds were mixed. & Treasuries pulled back from record high prices (bringing record low yields).  Oil had been over $90 but gave up most of those gains in the PM.  Gold rose for a 2nd day after the ECB said it will do whatever is needed to preserve the € & amid increasing expectations of further stimulus measures in the US.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


stock chart




Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.101%

U.S. 2-year

0.223%

U.S. 10-year

1.431%

CLU12.NYM...Crude Oil Sep 12....89.26 ...Up 0.29  (0.3%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso told Greece's new gov to "deliver, deliver, deliver" on promises for cost-cutting reforms.  The country depends on the reforms for continued financial support from other eurozone members.  Barroso met conservative Greek Prime Minister Samaras.  Meanwhile, the heads of an inspection team from the EU, the IMF & the ECB also arrived in the Greek capital to inspect the country's shaky public finances & the future of its rescue loan program.  Parties in the month-old Greek gov have finalized proposals to slash €11.5B ($14.1B) in gov spending over 2 years.  And the Greek drama plays on & on & on...

EU tells Greece to deliver on promised reforms AP


Contracts to purchase previously owned homes unexpectedly dropped in Jun for the 2nd time in the last 3 months, a sign of limited momentum in housing.  The index of pending home resales decreased 1.4% to 99.3 after a revised 5.4% gain in May that was less than initially reported, according to  the National Association of Realtors.  The forecast called for a 0.3% increase.  Slower job growth that’s holding down confidence & strict lending standards are restraining housing even with cheaper properties & mortgage rates at all-time lows.  While acknowledging the improvement in housing, Big Ben said last week that the Federal Reserve is ready to take further action to boost an economy that faces a headwind from Europe's debt crisis.

Pending Sales of U.S. Homes Unexpectedly Fell 1.4% in June


Durable Goods Orders

Photo:   Bloomberg

Companies cut back on orders for long-lasting factory goods in the US last month, outside volatile aircraft & other transportation equipment, suggesting businesses are losing confidence in the economy.  Orders for durable goods rose 1.6% in Jun from May, according to the Commerce Dept.  Excluding transportation equipment, orders fell 1.1%, the 3rd decrease in 4 months.  Orders for core capital goods, which indicate business investment plan fell 1.4%, also the 3rd decline in 4 months.  This category includes orders for computers & machinery.  Manufacturing has helped drive growth since the recession ended 3 years ago.  But it has slowed in recent months, along with the broader economy.  Europe's financial crisis has lowered demand for US exports & the pending expiration of several US tax cuts at the start of next year, along with scheduled spending cuts, may also be weighing on growth.

Goods Orders Signal U.S. Business Spending to Cool in Second Half: Economy


Kimberly-Clark, a Dividend Aristocrat, said Q2 net income rose 22% as higher selling prices, cost cuts & strong intl results helped offset the stronger dollar.  The company also raised guidance for the year due to higher sales expectations and lower commodity costs for materials like pulp.  "Halfway through the year, we are tracking ahead of our 2012 plan on most key financial metrics, and I'm encouraged by our execution in a continued volatile environment," said CEO Falk.  Like many businesses which have a significant amount of business overseas, it is facing the impact of the stronger dollar which lessens the value of intl sales.  Changes in foreign currency rates hurt revenue by more than 3 percentage points.  Still, EPS rose to $1.26, ahead of $1.03 last year.  Excluding one-time items EPS was $1.30, beating expectations of $1.28.  Net income was helped by sales growth, cost cuts & lower commodity costs which was partly offset by higher marketing, research & general spending & unfavorable currency exchange.  Revenue was nearly flat at $5.27B versus $5.26B which was also the analysts' estimate.  Personal care revenue rose 3% to $2.4B, while consumer tissue revenue fell 5% to $1.6B (hurt by restructuring & lower volume).  The company is guiding EPS for 2012 of $5.05-$5.20, up from a prior target of $5-$5.15 & analysts expect $5.16.  The company still expects sales to be flat to up 1%.  The stock rose 2.32 & has an excellent chart over the last year.

Kimberly-Clark 2nd-quarter net income risesAP

Kimberely-Clark (KMB)


stock chart


Markets had one of the best days this year on hopes that ECB will be able to solve all eurozone problems.  I'm not so sure.  Corp earnings have been fairly good although at the bigger picture level they paint a picture of a global economy that is only doing so-so.  Next week, Big Ben will host the FMOC meeting but few are expecting anything new coming from it.  Dow continues in its sideways trading range, it would not take much to break thru the 12.950 ceiling.  Tomorrow could be the day if the bulls are serious.  But modest market breadth during the up days looks worrisome.

Dow Jones Industrials


stock chart




Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY!  





Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Markets rise on improved pending home sales

Dow rose 81, advancers over decliners almost 4-1 & NAZ was up18.  The Financial Index added 1+ to the 191s (4 below its monthly high & this has been a good month for the index).  The MLP index gained 3+ to the 364s & the REIT index was up 1 to 253.  Junk bond funds rose & Treasuries were about even.  Oil increased after the Energy Dept said stockpiles fell less than expected, dropping 133K barrels to 387M barrels.  Gold prices hardly moved.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.096%

U.S. 2-year

0.305%

U.S. 10-year

1.626%

CLQ12.NYM....Crude Oil Aug 12...80.24 ......Up 0.88  (1.1%)

GCM12.CMX...Gold Jun 12.......1,564.00 ...Down 10.00  (0.6%)



Get the latest daily market update below:



  • Washers and dryers are seen on display at a store in New York July 28, 2010. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
Photo:   Yahoo

Demand for long-lasting US manufactured goods rebounded more than expected in May, but slowing global growth suggest the momentum might not be sustained.  Slower growth in China & a looming recession in the debt-crisis ridden euro zone have taken some of the shine off the domestic manufacturing sector, leaving the economy mired in a soft patch.  But the report from the Commerce Dept suggested the sector, which has shouldered the economy's recovery from the 2007-09 recession, was not falling apart.  Durable goods orders increased 1.1% after a revised 0.2% decrease in Apr, well above forecasts for a 0.4% increase.  Orders were lifted by a 2.7% jump in transportation equipment as aircraft bookings picked up & motor vehicles demand increased, though at a slower pace than in the prior month.  Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.4% after dropping 0.6% in Apr.  But May's strength, which came after 2 straight months of declines, could prove temporary.

Durable Goods Orders in U.S. Rise More Than Forecast


  • <p>               German Chancellor Angela Merkel arrives at the weekly cabinet meeting to discuss the country's budget 2013 at the chancellery in Berlin, Wednesday, June 27, 2012. German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Tuesday told a caucus meeting that there won't be a full shared debt liability in Europe "as long as I live," according to a lawmaker from Merkel's governing coalition. (AP Photo/Markus Schreiber)
Photo:   Yahoo

Chancellor Merkel has insisted that Europe can pool its debt only when govs' compliance with fiscal rules can be ensured.  She maintains that introducing so-called eurobonds now would be "economically wrong" after addressed the Parliament amid mounting pressure for her country to give up its fierce resistance to pooling debt.  She argues it makes no sense to share liability for debt before Europe has undergone a long process of integration & installed tough control mechanisms.  The chancellor said a quick move to eurobonds or other forms of joint liability would be constitutionally impossible in Germany and insisted that "supervision & liability must go hand in hand."  She said they could only be considered if & when "sufficient supervision is ensured."

Merkel Rebuffs Rajoy Plea, Shuts Door to Euro Area Bonds


Rate on 30-year mortgage down to record 3.88 pct.

Photo:   Yahoo

Contracts to purchase previously owned US homes matched a 2-year high in May, fueling optimism the housing market is poised for a recovery.  The National Association of Realtors said its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed last month, rose 5.9% to 101.1, matched a 2-year high reached in Mar & the gain was the largest since Oct 2011.  Before Mar, the last time pending home sales were as high was Apr 2010 when buyers were rushing to beat the deadline for a home-buyer tax credit, which was about to expire, the NAR said.  "The housing market is clearly superior this year compared with the past four years," Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist said.  "We're on track to see a 9 to 10 percent improvement in total sales for 2012."  Forecasts expected signed contracts, which lead home sales by a month or 2, to rise 1.0% after a previously reported 5.5% drop in Apr.  Housing is making a comeback, but it's remains tentative.

Pending Sales of U.S. Homes Climbed More Than Forecast in May


Markets are meandering again, with an upward bias.  The lack of horrible news out of Europe is bringing out the buyers.  However big intl problems have not gone away.  There are hopes China will add stimulus to its economy.  The US housing data sounds good.  We are also going into the end of the month/qtr when anything is possible as money managers even out positions.  Dow is down 20 this week, up 200 in Jun but down 600 in Q2.

Dow Jones Industrials


stock chart





Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY!  


Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Improved earnings take markets higher

Dow added 56, advancers over decliners almost 4-1 & NAZ jumped 56 helped by a 48 rise in Apple (AAPL) stock.   The Financial Index was up a fraction in the 205s, little changed in Apr.

The MLP index fell 1 to the 294s & the REIT index was up 2 to the 257s, a new yearly high.  Junk bond funds were mixed to higher after having a good month in Apr & Treasuries were lower.  Oil gained while gold lost a tad & hasn't been doing much in 2012.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)

stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.081%

U.S. 2-year

0.277%

U.S. 10-year

1.996%

CLM12.NYM...Crude Oil Jun 12...103.85 ....Up 0.30  (0.3%)

GCJ12.CMX.....Gold Apr 12.......1,639.60 ...Down 3.40  (0.2%)



Get the latest daily market update:



Orders for U.S. Durable Goods Drop by the Most in Three Years

Photo:   Bloomberg

Orders for durable goods in the US fell in Mar, the most in 3 years, indicating manufacturing could contribute less to growth this year.  Bookings dropped 4.2%, the biggest decrease since Jan 2009, after a revised 1.9% gain the prior month, according to the Commerce Dept.  The forecast was for a 1.7% decline.  Slowdowns in Europe & China may limit exports, while business investment cools after the strongest 10-qtr performance in a decade, leading to a slowdown in manufacturing.  But improving sales led by pent-up demand for autos, are supporting companies in the US.  Orders for durables excluding transportation equipment decreased 1.1% after a 1.9% advance.  They were projected to rise 0.5%.  Demand for transportation equipment dropped 12.5%, the most since Nov 2010, led by a 48% plunge in civilian aircraft bookings.  Bookings for automobiles & parts increased 0.1% after a 2% rise the previous month.

Orders for U.S. Goods Decrease by the Most in Three Years


Caterpillar, a Dow stock, profit rose 29% in Q1 & beat expectations as the company relied on its growing mining business & sales to buyers looking to replace aging equipment.  It increased profit guidance for the 2012, but the new forecast may not be strong enough to comfort concerns over the state of the global economy.  CAT is utilizing its strength in the mining business, bolstered by the 2011 acquisition of Bucyrus along with healthy commodity prices, to ride out softening conditions in emerging markets & a weak construction market.  In addition, North American customers are scrambling to replace aging machinery.  "We remain on track...at a time when construction activity remains depressed and economies in Europe, China and Brazil have slowed," CEO Oberhelman said.  "Although it's tough to predict the exact timing, we expect positive economic growth moving forward."  The slowing in China & Brazil comes as those countries "took steps in 2011 to slow their economies and bring inflation under control," Oberhelman said.  Both economies are expected to ease their policies, Caterpillar said.  EPS was $2.37 (the highest on record), compared with $1.84 last year.  Sales rose 23% to $16B.  Analysts projected EPS of $2.13, however revenue fell short of the $16.2B expected.  The company increased EPS outlook for 2012 to $9.50 from $9.25 previously.  The revenue outlook was kept at $68-$70B.  The backlog continued to grow, ending at $30.7B versus $21B last year.  The stock fell 2.76.

Caterpillar Ups Outlook as Profits Jump 29%

Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT)


stock chart


  • The Boeing logo is seen on a Boeing 787 Dreamliner airplane in Long Beach, California March 14, 2012. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson
Photo:   Yahoo

Boeing, a Dow stock, posted higher-than-expected quarterly profit, helped by an increase in commercial airplane deliveries & it raised its earnings forecast for 2012.  Production is being raised on commercial airplanes to meet increased demand while battling defense budget constraints.  EPS in Q1 rose to $1.22 from 78¢ last year.  Excluding a gain from resolved litigation, EPS was $1.11, beating the estimate of 94¢.  The company, which competes with Airbus for orders, said revenue rose 30% to $19.4B, topping expectations for $18.4B.  The order backlog increased to $380B, from $356B at the beginning of the year.  The company raised the upper end of its 2012 EPS forecast to $4.35 from $4.25 while keeping the low end at $4.15.  It affirmed its 2012 revenue outlook of $78-$80B.  The stock rose 2.26.

Boeing Jumps as Profit Beats Estimates, Outlook Raised

Boeing Company (The) (BA)


stock chart

This week, earnings have been behind moves in the stock markets.  Yesterday, Dow stocks ATT (T), UnitedTech (UTX) & 3M (MMM) reported good earnings.  After the close AAPL got all the attention with another great report.  But it was not all rosy.  iPad sales were just shy of the estimate & the Mac business is weak.  China accounted for $8B in sales (much of it from iPhones).  But the market was happy.  Dow is back over 13K, good but with less vigor than I would have expected given these earnings reports.  Dow is where is was 6 weeks ago.

Dow Industrials

stock chart








Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY!