Showing posts with label pending home resales. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pending home resales. Show all posts

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Markets soar on euro bailout hopes from the ECB

Dow surged 211 to close near its highs, advancers over decliners a modest 3-1 & NAZ gained 39.  The Financial Index rose 3 to 195 after trading sideways for more than a month.  The MLP index was up 4 to the 393s & the REIT index added 2+ to the 263s.  Junk bond funds were mixed. & Treasuries pulled back from record high prices (bringing record low yields).  Oil had been over $90 but gave up most of those gains in the PM.  Gold rose for a 2nd day after the ECB said it will do whatever is needed to preserve the € & amid increasing expectations of further stimulus measures in the US.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


stock chart




Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.101%

U.S. 2-year

0.223%

U.S. 10-year

1.431%

CLU12.NYM...Crude Oil Sep 12....89.26 ...Up 0.29  (0.3%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso told Greece's new gov to "deliver, deliver, deliver" on promises for cost-cutting reforms.  The country depends on the reforms for continued financial support from other eurozone members.  Barroso met conservative Greek Prime Minister Samaras.  Meanwhile, the heads of an inspection team from the EU, the IMF & the ECB also arrived in the Greek capital to inspect the country's shaky public finances & the future of its rescue loan program.  Parties in the month-old Greek gov have finalized proposals to slash €11.5B ($14.1B) in gov spending over 2 years.  And the Greek drama plays on & on & on...

EU tells Greece to deliver on promised reforms AP


Contracts to purchase previously owned homes unexpectedly dropped in Jun for the 2nd time in the last 3 months, a sign of limited momentum in housing.  The index of pending home resales decreased 1.4% to 99.3 after a revised 5.4% gain in May that was less than initially reported, according to  the National Association of Realtors.  The forecast called for a 0.3% increase.  Slower job growth that’s holding down confidence & strict lending standards are restraining housing even with cheaper properties & mortgage rates at all-time lows.  While acknowledging the improvement in housing, Big Ben said last week that the Federal Reserve is ready to take further action to boost an economy that faces a headwind from Europe's debt crisis.

Pending Sales of U.S. Homes Unexpectedly Fell 1.4% in June


Durable Goods Orders

Photo:   Bloomberg

Companies cut back on orders for long-lasting factory goods in the US last month, outside volatile aircraft & other transportation equipment, suggesting businesses are losing confidence in the economy.  Orders for durable goods rose 1.6% in Jun from May, according to the Commerce Dept.  Excluding transportation equipment, orders fell 1.1%, the 3rd decrease in 4 months.  Orders for core capital goods, which indicate business investment plan fell 1.4%, also the 3rd decline in 4 months.  This category includes orders for computers & machinery.  Manufacturing has helped drive growth since the recession ended 3 years ago.  But it has slowed in recent months, along with the broader economy.  Europe's financial crisis has lowered demand for US exports & the pending expiration of several US tax cuts at the start of next year, along with scheduled spending cuts, may also be weighing on growth.

Goods Orders Signal U.S. Business Spending to Cool in Second Half: Economy


Kimberly-Clark, a Dividend Aristocrat, said Q2 net income rose 22% as higher selling prices, cost cuts & strong intl results helped offset the stronger dollar.  The company also raised guidance for the year due to higher sales expectations and lower commodity costs for materials like pulp.  "Halfway through the year, we are tracking ahead of our 2012 plan on most key financial metrics, and I'm encouraged by our execution in a continued volatile environment," said CEO Falk.  Like many businesses which have a significant amount of business overseas, it is facing the impact of the stronger dollar which lessens the value of intl sales.  Changes in foreign currency rates hurt revenue by more than 3 percentage points.  Still, EPS rose to $1.26, ahead of $1.03 last year.  Excluding one-time items EPS was $1.30, beating expectations of $1.28.  Net income was helped by sales growth, cost cuts & lower commodity costs which was partly offset by higher marketing, research & general spending & unfavorable currency exchange.  Revenue was nearly flat at $5.27B versus $5.26B which was also the analysts' estimate.  Personal care revenue rose 3% to $2.4B, while consumer tissue revenue fell 5% to $1.6B (hurt by restructuring & lower volume).  The company is guiding EPS for 2012 of $5.05-$5.20, up from a prior target of $5-$5.15 & analysts expect $5.16.  The company still expects sales to be flat to up 1%.  The stock rose 2.32 & has an excellent chart over the last year.

Kimberly-Clark 2nd-quarter net income risesAP

Kimberely-Clark (KMB)


stock chart


Markets had one of the best days this year on hopes that ECB will be able to solve all eurozone problems.  I'm not so sure.  Corp earnings have been fairly good although at the bigger picture level they paint a picture of a global economy that is only doing so-so.  Next week, Big Ben will host the FMOC meeting but few are expecting anything new coming from it.  Dow continues in its sideways trading range, it would not take much to break thru the 12.950 ceiling.  Tomorrow could be the day if the bulls are serious.  But modest market breadth during the up days looks worrisome.

Dow Jones Industrials


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Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Markets drift lower on doubts over Greek bailout

Dow dropped 42, decliners ahead of advancers almost 2-1 & NAZ fell 14 (hurt by weak earnings from Dell).  Bank stocks led the selling, taking the Financial Index down 2 to the 196s (backing off from highs over 199 last week).

The MLP index dropped 3+ to the 405s on profit taking & the REIT index was off 2 to the 242s.  Junk bond funds were higher as investors were attracted by their relatively high yields & Treasuries rose on confusion about the Greek debt deal.  Oil fluctuated near a 9-month high as reports showed manufacturing activity slowed in Europe & China & UN inspectors in Iran were denied access to a military base.  Gold was also little changed.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.081%

U.S. 2-year

0.297%

U.S. 10-year

2.033%

CLJ12.NYM....Crude Oil Apr 12...106.36 ...Up 0.11  (0.1%)

GCG12.CMX...Gold Feb 12.......1,755.10 ...Down 2.00  (0.1%)




Get the latest daily market update below:



Greek Bailout Wins Two Cheers From Wary Investors

Photo:   Bloomberg

The Greek parliament scrambled to pass laws needed to secure payment of a 2nd bailout.  Lawmakers are working on a series of measures demanded in exchange for a €130B rescue.  There are plenty of doubts about Greece's ability to meet its reform commitments.  Credit ratings agency Fitch downgraded Greece further ahead of a planned bond swap under which it will enforce sharp losses on private creditors as part of the bailout program.  It was the first of widely expected cuts from all rating agencies because Greece will pass into technical default on its liabilities once the transaction is completed.  "The exchange, if completed, would constitute a 'distressed debt exchange'," Fitch said when it downgraded Greece to C from CCC.  When the bond swap is finished, the Greek sovereign rating will drop further to 'restricted default' & then will be re-rated again "at a level consistent with the agency's assessment of its post-default structure & credit profile," Fitch said.  Under the terms of the revised agreement, private holders of just over €200B of Greek bonds will take a loss of 53.5% in the face value of their holdings to ease the debt burden.  Laws to enact the debt swap are set to be adopted tomorrow.  The Greek drama drones on as it has for months.

Greece Rushes to Pass Bailout Laws Amid Protests


Sales of Previously Owned U.S. Homes Increased in January

Photo:   Bloomberg

Home resales surged in Jan to a 1½ year high & the supply of properties on the market was the lowest in almost 7 years, pointing to a nascent housing recovery.  The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales increased 4.3% to an annual rate of 4.57M last month, the highest since May 2010.  However, the tenor of the report was weakened somewhat by a sharp downward revision of Dec sales to show only a 4.38M-unit rate rather than the previously reported 4.61M-unit pace.  That followed an annual revision of the seasonal factors for the series going back 3 years.  Sales in Dec actually fell 0.5% from Nov, instead of the 5% increase reported last month.  Expectations were for sales to rise to a 4.65M-unit sales pace.  Last month, there were 2.3M unsold homes on the market (lowest since Mar 2005), representing a 6.1 months supply, the lowest since Apr 2006 & down from 6.4 months in Dec.  A supply of 6 months is generally considered ideal.  But the median sales price fell 2% to $154K in Jan from a year ago.  Somewhat mixed data, but generally favorable.



Dell Forecast Trails Estimates Amid Sluggish Computer Sales

Photo:   Bloomberg

Dell has slim prospects for additional margin expansion in the near term & the company may see more volatility in operating margins & earnings.  DELL said sales would be down 7% in Q1 2012 from Q4 2011, when it posted revenue of $16B. Sluggish sales, coupled with shrinking profit in Q4, have raised concerns about its comeback plan, which has relied on streamlining operations to boost earnings.  After an almost 25% gain in the stock before today, it looks like investors may have been overly optimistic about the company’s ability to turn around its operations.  DELL said revenue in Q1 (ending in Apr) will decrease to $14.9B, trailing the $15.1B estimate.  Q4 EPS declined to 43¢ from 48¢ a year earlier & sales rose 2% to $16B, in line with estimates.  Excluding some items, EPS will be at least $2.13 in fiscal 2012, DELL said.  DELL is suffering from competition with Apple (AAPL) at the high end & Lenovo & Acer at the low end.  The stock fell 1.16 (6%). 

Dell Shares Fall After Forecast Misses Estimates

Dell Inc. (DELL)


stock chart


Drab performance by the stock market after the Greek bailout was approved is not what the bulls wanted to see.  In truth, the bailout is still in a fuzzy state, needing more approvals by various parties.  Bank stocks have been strong since late Nov with the Financial Index rising almost 25% (off depressed lows).  But there has been selling in the last few days, a negative signal for the markets following the Greek bailout announcement.  The US economy is doing good, but not great (as has been the case for 3 years).  13K is proving a tough ceiling for the Dow to break thru.  If Greek bailout doesn't do the trick, what will?

Dow Industrials


stock chart







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Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Markets continue rising ahead of a 2nd Greek vote

Stocks are charging  ahead.  Dow rose 78, advancers ahead of decliners 3-1 & NAZ gained 13.  Banks are leading the way up, with the Financial Index having one of its best days in some time.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value 205.14 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change    3.29    (1.6%)


The Alerian MLP Index rose 3+ to 370, its best level in almost a month, & the REIT index gained 2+ to 240.  Junk bond funds edged higher & Treasuries were weaker as investing money is embracing risk again.  Oil & gold also were recovering from recent lows.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)




Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.025%

U.S. 2-year

0.461%

U.S. 10-year

3.058%

CLQ11.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 11...93.78 ....Up 0.89  (1.0%)

GCN11.CMX...Gold Jul 11.......1,508.90 ...Up 9.20  (0.6%)


The latest latest market update below:



Papandreou Wins Budget Vote as Risk of Default Recedes

Photo:   Bloomberg

The Greek Parliament voted to back a package of deep spending cuts to help clear a path for the release of funds & potentially a 2nd bailout by the EU & IMF.  The EU & IMF had made the release of a €12B ($17.3B) portion of last year's €110B bailout contingent on the passage of the bill to stave off a sovereign default.  In his speech ahead of the vote, Prime Minister George Papandreou said there was "no plan B." "We must avoid the country's collapse at all costs. Now is not the time to step back," he said.  A 2nd vote on the implementation of the law is due tomorrow. The main opposition party said that it would vote against the package & several members of the ruling party were known to be opposed to cuts.  Unions began a 48-hour strike as protests outside the parliament building & turned violent as MPs debated the austerity package.Stayed tuned.

Papandreou Wins Budget Vote as Risk of Default Recedes


Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Rise 8.2%

Photo:  Bloomerg

The number of people who signed contracts to buy homes rose sharply in May, pushed higher by an influx of spring buying.  The National Association of Realtors said its index of sales agreements for previously occupied homes rose 8.2%, to a reading of 88.8 following a 7-month low of 82.1 in Apr.  Signings are 17% above the Jun reading of 75.9, the lowest figure since the housing market went bust nearly 4 years ago. Contract signings are typically an indicator of where the housing market is headed.  But the Realtors group also said a growing number of buyers have cancelled contracts ahead of closings after appraisals showed the homes were worth less than they bid.   The trade group said the report "implies that home values in many localities are or will soon be stabilizing."  These days, a mixed message in housing is viewed as good.

Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Rise 8.2%




Photo:   Yahoo

General Mills Q4 income rose 51% on stronger sales abroad, but rising ingredient & fuel costs remain a concern as it gave a 2012 earnings outlook below expectations. GIS started raising its prices to help cope with climbing ingredient costs & escalating fuel costs.  GIS anticipates 2012 EPS of $2.60-$2.62 with revenue growth in the mid single-digits. Forecasts were for EPS of $2.68.  This guidance assumes "significantly higher costs for ingredients and energy," costs are assumed to rise 10-11% & the outlook assumes that developed markets will remain challenging over the next year. In Q4, GIS benefited mostly from strength overseas, with intl revenue up 16%. Its bakeries & foodservice segment also posted an 11% revenue gain.  Results for the US retail division were weaker, it posted a 2% revenue decline as higher prices were offset by a 6% drop in volume.  For the year, EPS was $2.70 compared with $2.24 in the prior year. Adjusted EPS climbed to $2.48 from $2.30.  Annual revenue improved to $14.88B from $14.64B.  The stock rose 18¢.

General Mills 4Q profit climbs on higher sales AP

General Mills, Inc. (GIS)


stock chart


Monsanto said higher sales of genetically engineered seeds helped Q3 profits nearly double.  EPS was $1.26 for the qtr ended May 31, compared with 70¢ last year.  Revenue increased 21% to $3.6B.  The results easily beat expectations of $1.10 on revenue of $3.4B. Total seeds & traits revenue rose to $2.65B from $2.36B last year. Corn seed sales jumped 10% from last year to $1.12B & soybean sales rose 10% to $605B.  MON raised its 2011 outlook for ongoing EPS to $2.84-$2.88, from the prior estimate of $2.72-$2.82.  The stock was up 2.33.

Monsanto posts $680 million profit in 3rd quarter AP

Monsanto Company (MON)


stock chart



The IMF said the US should raise the debt ceiling to avoid a global shock.  Nobody is arguing with the thought, but getting it done is another thing.  Negotiations in DC are dead in the water & the clock is ticking.  Greece has another big vote coming tomorrow, it's still hard to see how its debt problem will be resolved with protests in the street.  However stocks are having a good day & the Dow hopes to make it 3 days in a row of triple digit gains after waffling around 12K for 3 weeks 

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart




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