Showing posts with label European rescue package. Show all posts
Showing posts with label European rescue package. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Higher markets led by financials

Dow surged 180 despite dismal earnings reports, advancers ahead of decliners 4-1 (could have been a bigger spread given the size of the rally) & NAZ gained 42.  Bank stocks led the way higher.  The Financial Index soared 8+ to the the 172s (up over 20 in Oct).

The MLP index rose 2+ to 360 & the REIT index was up 8+ to the 215s.  Junk bond funds were a little higher, not really participating in the rally even though junk bonds are thought of as stocks with high yields, & Treasuries were pretty much even.  Oil rose to the highest level in one month as US stocks rallied raising hopes that economic growth will stabilize.  Gold prices fell as inflation worries started to ease.  The VIX, volatility chart, fell almost 2 to the 31s as stocks rallied.


ALERIAN MLP Index (^AMZ)



DJ REIT INDEXDJR (^DJR)



Volatility Index (^VIX)





Click below for the latest market update:



Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.015%

U.S. 2-year

0.270%

U.S. 10-year

2.178%

CLX11.NYM....Crude Oil Nov 11...88.47 ...Up 2.09  (2.4%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]





Merkel Said to Say Crisis Plan Moving Millimeter

Photo:   Bloomberg

German Chancellor Merkel said that an EU summit in 5 days will mark an “important step,” though not the final one in solving the euro-area sovereign debt crisis.  “These sovereign debts have built up over decades, so they won’t be ended with one summit,” Merkel said.  While European officials recognize their responsibility to stop the crisis, “this will require tough, long-term work.”  The comments marked the 2nd time in 2 days that she sought to lower expectations that the European crisis-fighting effort would climax at the Oct 23 meeting.  Earlier today, she said at her Christian Democratic caucus that officials from the 17-nation euro area are moving millimeter by millimeter on solving the crisis.  She said the summit “is an important step, but that further steps will follow again after that.”  Germany will be THE most important country at the meeting.  Is anybody listening to her words?





Photo:   Yahoo

US homebuilders were less pessimistic in Oct than forecast as near record-low borrowing costs & price decreases raised hopes the market will turn for the better over the next 6 months.  The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo sentiment index climbed to 18, the highest level since May 2010, from 14 in the prior month.  Economists projected the measure would rise to 15.  However, it remains significantly below 50 (meaning more respondents said conditions were poor).  Federal Reserve measures to boost demand & spur job growth combined with concern over the European debt crises have helped reduce mortgage rates, making buying more affordable.  At the same time, the prospect more foreclosures will enter the market & with unemployment above 9% mean it will take a long time for any recovery to develop.  A tiny bit of good news in a very depressed area.

Rise in Homebuilder Sentiment Tops Forecas


China’s GDP gain of 9.1% was less than the estimate of 9.3% by economists & follows a 9.5% gain in the previous 3 months. Along with other signals, growth in China may be slowing as it feels effects from softer markets around the world in recent months.  This news along with dismal earnings could not keep buyers out of the markets.  Markets began the day underwater, then started rising.  Demand did not let up until the close when Dow pulled back 75 after topping 10.6K.  This was quite a performance considering it was not backup up by the news.  There are hopes Goldman Sachs (GS) & Bank of America (BAC) will turn around.  One analysts sees BAC doubling, possibly even tripling, from these depressed levels.  I'm not convinced.  Tomorrow the bulls will try to break thru the ceiling of 10.6K again.

After the close, Apple (AAPL) reported a 54% gain in net income for Q4, although it missed estimates mostly to lower-than-expected sales of the iPhone. EPS was $7.05, compared to $4.64 last year. Revenue jumped 39% to $28.2B. Analysts had expected EPS of $7.38 on $29.7B.  But the stock gained 2+ in after hour trading.

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart


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Friday, May 14, 2010

European bailout package is no fix

Stocks sank at the start & were not able to recover until limited buying into the close reduced losses. Dow fell 162, decliners over advancers more than 6-1 & NAZ lost 41. European financial turmoil is getting everybody's attention. Banks are leading the way down although they also have another major worry, the new financial regulation bill. The Financial Index suffered a similar fate to Dow today.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX



Value
206.47
Change
-5.78
% Change
-2.7%









European debt problems are bleeding over the high yield markets in the US. The Alerian MLP Index fell below that important 300 level, dropping 3¼ to the 297s (buying into the close limited losses). The REIT index dropped a very big 7+ to the 205s. Junk bond funds sold off 1-2% as investors are demanding higher yields on risky debt. But Treasuries were in demand. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond plunged 12 basis points to 3.44%. And the VIX, volatility index shot up 5 to the 31s ( it had been around 25 on Wed). Investors are anxious & nervous.

Alerian MLP Index --- YTD




Dow Jones REIT Index -- YTD




VIX --- YTD





Oil dropped to the lowest levels in 3 months which in turn dragged down oil stocks. Traders were worried about a global economic slowdown, especially in Europe. Gold remained hot. As long as European financial markets are in turmoil, gold should be able to continue climbing to new heights.



Oil...71.51__-2.89__-3.9%
Gold...1,232.40__3.20__0.3%


Gold Super Cycle
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The € just can't get no respect as it fell below $1.24. There is talk about parity with the US$ (i.e. its value would fall to $1.00). Europe has a huge disconnect between 2 groups of countries. The ones in the northern region are generally in better shape with stronger control over their finances. The Mediterranean ones lack controls. Taxpayers in the north are not happy about bailing out their southern neighbors. And that difference is striking home.



EUR/USD...1.2387__-0.0136



Constellation Energy (CEP) reported Q1 earnings & they did earn money, $18M which was up from the prior year's total of $15M. They also reaffirmed there was no intention of paying a distribution this year (only 2 qtrs left). Instead they have to watch their borrowings closely. Their debt capacity is $205M, of which they are only using $185M presently. The units have not participated in the enormous rally for MLPs & today slipped 3¢ to 3.40.

Constellation Energy Partners Reports First Quarter 2010 Results
Constellation Energy Partners' Borrowing Base Reaffirmed at $205 Million


Constellation Energy --- 2 years





Bulls had been in charge but have clearly lost control late in the week. The Euro debt mess will drone on. This time there is no weekend conference to throw massive amounts of money at difficult problems. Greece has a May 19 deadline, it must refinance loans & now that is in doubt! In addition financial regulation is moving forward in the Senate. Every day of delay, the pols throw in more controls. And the oil spill in the Gulf needs to be fixed. These are major problems & the markets are not adjusting well.


Dow Jones Industrials -- YTD




Nasdaq --- YTD












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Increased sovereign debt concerns weigh down stocks

Dow sold off from the opening bell. It's down 181, decliners over advancers 8-1 & NAZ fell an even bigger 61 (2½%). European debt problems are getting very serious for the markets. Banks are leading the way down. The Financial Index fell 6 & is down 20 from its interim peak last month. Banks are also looking towards DC to learn more about increased gov regulation which could be announced next week.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
206.18
Change
-6.07
% Change
-2.9%


European debt problems are a big drag for all high yield instruments. The Alerian MLP Index dropped 5 (big by its standards) to the 296s. While 260 was the absolute low last week, around 280 represents the post plunge & more realistic low. The REIT index fell almost 6 to the 206s (& off 13 from its highs 2 weeks ago). Junk bond funds sold off on the order of 2%. Investors in junk bonds want higher yields after observing the confusion in Europe. But Treasuries soared! The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond plummeted 13 basis points to 3.43%. Meanwhile the VIX, volatility index, shotup 6+ to the 32s shown in its chart below.

Alerian MLP Index --- 1 week




Dow Jones REIT Index -- 2 weeks




10-Year Treasury Yld Index - 1 month




VIX --- 1 month






Oil dropped to 73, breaking thru a key support level, 75, making the guys who watch technical indicators very nervous. Worries are that slowing economies will require less oil. But gold is strong, just off its record highs reached this week. Investors bought gold to protect against sovereign debt risk in the euro zone & instability in foreign exchange markets.


Oil...73.14__-1.26__-1.7%
Gold...1,233.80__4.60__0.4%

Gold Super Cycle Link! Click Here


GLD (ETF) --- 2 weeks





A preliminary index of consumer sentiment rose to 73.3 from 72.2 in Apr. In Apr employers added the most workers in 4 years, indicating an improving job market. In addition retail sales in Apr rose 0.4% following a 2.1% jump in Mar, for the 7th consecutive monthly gain. Both graphs weren't updated for Apr data. This data signals the biggest part of the economy is helping strengthen expansion.

Confidence of U.S. Consumers Rises in Sign Shoppers to Strengthen Recovery


Index of consumer sentiment - 1 year




Growth in retail sales - 1 year





The Euro zone group is losing it fast! German taxpayers are be asked to foot the bill for permissiveness to bail out divergent economies lashed to a single currency with little control over national taxes & spending. The consequences are the €860B ($1T+) bill for a debt binge led by Greece, sagging confidence in the European Central Bank’s independence & mounting speculation that a currency might break apart. The € sank to another 3 year low, below $1.24. The Greek drama is far from over!! And keep in mind, the US gov is part of the bailout package.

Euro Breakup Talk Increases as Germany Sees Greece Becoming Currency Proxy


Euro --- 5 years



Chart forEUR/USD (EURUSD=X)


This is another dreary Fri. Markets are paying a lot more attention to the goings on in Europe & it's getting very ugly once again. The negative thinking about sovereign debts are bleeding over to high yield securities in the US. Dow's 10,380 close last Fri is a key support level & the way markets are acting it could be tested today or by Mon. Without a quick solution to the European debt mess, markets may see a lot more selling into next week. But gold & Treasuries should benefit with all this financial confusion.

Dow Jones Industrials -- 2 weeks








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Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Doubts about European bailout program plague markets, while gold reachs a new record

Stocks started lower, followed by a rally taking them solidly in the black. By day's end, Dow slipped into the red with selling into the close. Second thoughts about the European bailout package are giving many reasons to pause & rethink investments. Dow ended down 36, advancers over decliners only 5-4 & NAZ was even. On balance bank investors were nervous, the Financial Index ended in the red & nearer its lows than its highs.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX



Value
213.47
Change
-1.03
% Change
-0.5%








MLPs had sold gains. The index rose 3+, taking it back to the 299s after touching 302, an important resistance level. The REIT index added a fraction in the 213s. Junk bond funds made good advances, up 1-2%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell a tad, just a fraction under 3.54%. And the VIX, volatility index, slipped 0.64, in the 28s.

Alerian MLP Index --- 2 months




Dow Jones REIT Index -- 2 months





Gains for oil in the AM were shed in the PM. One of the biggest drags on oil is the worry that booming China may slow its purchases of oil, it's stock market is already in a bear market. Getting little attention, gold rocketed ahead to another record high taking out the previous highs made 5 months ago. That old adage was never truer, a small portion of the portfolio should be in gold.



CLM10.NYM...Crude Oil Jun 10...75.84

..Down 0.96

......(1.3%)



Gold...1,233.20...32.40...2.7%



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GLD (ETF) --- YTD





There are 3 main questions regarding the European rescue plan.

(1) Will Greece adopt austerity measures?
(2) Will Germany accept those terms & lend money?
(3) Will there be any more countries needing bailouts?

Markets showed their doubts today. In the meantime, BP is trying another option to plug one damaged well (out of 3) in the Gulf. Increased financial regulation for the banks is still out there, but the Senate has gotten bogged down & is letting it drift. The economy is showing signs of mending, but don't tell that to the 10% who are unemployed or 17+% who are underemployed. The excitement behind the announcement of the European rescue package is over, now reality is settling & that is keeping buyers away. At least, for today,
GOLD is king!

Dow Jones Industrials -- 2 months








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