Showing posts with label GDP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GDP. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Markets little changed in holiday trading

Dow was 4 lower, advancers ahead of decliners 4-3 & NAZ fell 3.  The Financial Index was up a fraction in the 203s (near its almost 4 month highs).  The MLP & REIT indices were flattish, junk bond funds edged higher & lost ground.  Oil was lower as storm damage in the Gulf should be less than feared & gold held steady.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.096%

U.S. 2-year

0.270%

U.S. 10-year

1.654%

CLV12.NYM....Crude Oil Oct 12...95.92 ...Down 0.41  (0.4%)

GCQ12.CMX...Gold Aug 12...1,665.20 ...Down 1.30  (0.1%)



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  • A man pushes his shopping cart down an aisle at a Home Depot store in New York, July 29, 2010. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
Photo:   Yahoo

The economy fared slightly better than initially thought in Q2, but the pace of growth remained too slow to shut the door on further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve (FED).  GDP expanded at a 1.7% annual rate, according to the Commerce Dept as stronger export growth offset a pull-back in restocking by businesses wary of sluggish domestic demand.  That was up from the initial estimate of 1.5% growth rate released last month & in line with expectations.  The economy grew at a 2.0% pace in Q1.  The report also showed that after-tax corp profits unexpectedly rose at a 1.1% rate after sinking 8.6% in Q1.  While the composition of economic activity was fairly favorable, growth remains well below the 2-2½% rate required to hold the unemployment rate steady, which could compel the FED to offer additional stimulus at the Sep 12-13 meeting.



European Central Bank President Mario Draghi

Photo:   Bloomberg

ECB President Draghi hit back at German criticism of his plan to intervene in bond markets & reminded Europe’s largest economy of its responsibility to anchor the €.  The ECB “will always act within the limits of its mandate,” Draghi wrote in a commentary.  “Yet it should be understood that fulfilling our mandate sometimes requires us to go beyond standard monetary policy tools.”  Bundesbank President Weidmann & some German politicians have lashed out at Draghi’s plan to resume gov bond purchases to lower borrowing costs in countries such as Italy & Spain.  Draghi’s response comes as Chancelloro Merkel has signaled broad support for ECB bond buying.  Today she hosts Italian Prime Minister Monti.  “The ECB is not a political institution,” Draghi wrote. “But it is committed to its responsibilities as an institution of the European Union. As such, we never lose sight of our mission to guarantee a strong and stable currency. The banknotes that we issue bear the European flag and are a powerful symbol of European identity.”  Weidmann has said he’s against ECB bond purchases because they risk increasing gov reliance on the central bank & won’t solve Europe’s debt crisis.  “Such policy is too close to state financing via the money press for me,” he said.  So much for a united euro front.

Draghi Hits Back at German Criticism of ECB Bond Plan


Gov efforts to reverse China's economic slump are taking effect & growth is "stabilizing at a slow pace," the head of the country's planning agency said.  The statement by the minister in charge of the National Development & Reform Commission came amid mixed signals that show some activity picking up but export orders & corp profits weakening.  "The government's policies and measures have been effective and the country's economic growth is stabilizing at a slow pace," the official Xinhua News Agency paraphrased Zhang Ping as saying.  The report gave no other details or a forecast of when economic growth that fell to a 3-year low of 7.6% in Q2 might rebound.  China cut interest rates twice in Jun & is trying to pump up the economy by approving a wave of new industrial investments.  But authorities have resisted calls for more aggressive stimulus after huge spending in response to the 2008 crisis fueled inflation & a wasteful building boom.  Premier Wen Jiabao has expressed confidence China can meet its economic targets but warned last month the job situation will become "more complex and severe."  The Communist Party's official growth target this year is 7.5%  Forecasters expect growth to rebound late this year or in early 2013 but say a recovery will be too weak to drive global growth without improvement in the US & Europe.

Official: China's Growth Stabilizing at Slow Pace


Once again, there is not a lot going on in the markets.  Even news out of Europe & China represents only talk.  Big Ben will share his thoughts on Fri but that looks like it will not provide new information about new moves by the FED.  Dow remains steady as she goes near 13.1K.

Dow Jones Industrials

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Friday, July 27, 2012

Markets advance on euro bailout hopes

Dow rose 105, advancers over decliners 5-1 & NAZ gained 37.  The Financial Index was up 1+ to the 196s.  The MLP index slipped a fraction to the 392s & the REIT index was up 2+ to the 266s.  Junk bond funds were mixed while Treasuries pulled back on profit selling.  Oil & gold also advanced.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.101%

U.S. 2-year

0.246%

U.S. 10-year

1.509%

CLU12.NYM...Crude Oil Sep 12...89.98 ...Up 0.59  (0.7%)

GCN12.CMX...Gold Jul 12.......1,613.40 ...Down 1.60  (0.1%)



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  • <p>               FILE - In this Tuesday, May 1, 2012, file photo, worker Maria Contrero, of Boston, removes an elite running shoe from a sole press during the assembly process at the New Balance Athletic Shoe, Inc. factory in Boston. A U.S. economy that plodded along in the first three months of the year likely grew even less in the April-June quarter. And most economists no longer think growth will strengthen much in the second half of 2012.  (AP Photo/Steven Senne, File)
Photo:  Yahoo

The US economy grew at an annual rate of just 1.5% in Q2, as Americans cut back sharply on spending.  The slowdown in growth adds to worries that the economy could be stalling 3 years after the recession ended.  The Commerce Dept also said that the economy grew a little better than previously thought in Q1, raiseing its estimate to a 2% rate, up from 1.9%.  But growth at or below 2% isn't enough to lower the unemployment rate, which is 8.2% presently.  The growth rate is not expected to pick up much in H2.  Europe's financial crisis & a looming budget crisis in the US can slow business investment further.  Some economic data improved over in Q2, while others worsened.  Hiring, for example, rose slightly from Apr to May to Jun.  But home sales weakened.  Some believe the Federal Reserve will launch another round of bond buying at its Sep policy meeting to drive long-term interest rates lower & encourage more borrowing & spending.  The 1.5% growth rate was the weakest since the economy expanded at a 1.3% rate in Q3 last year.  

U.S. Economic Growth Slows to 1.5% as Unemployment Pares Consumer Spending


While this is another day for the bulls, the markets are really in a lackluster mode.  Yes Dow broke thru the technical ceiling to almost 13K, but this is summer & hard to make much of moves.  The next objective for the bulls is 13.4K.  The ECB will have to take positive actions to make that happen.  In the meantime hopes are riding high that Big Ben & the Federal Reserve will provide magic.  As an aside, I just went to a meeting with fund managers for junk bond funds.  They continue to be optimistic about the future of high yield debt.  Longer term, these bonds have done well.  The only real losers were in late 2008 when some panicked & sold at market lows.  Brave investors stayed the course & allowed divs to reinvest at low prices (to get extraordinarily high yields) & did quite well.,

Dow Jones Industrials


stock chart





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Thursday, June 28, 2012

Bank stocks lead a broad decline

Dow dropped 145, decliners over advancers 3-1 & NAZ fell 40.  Banks stocks were hit with selling, taking the Financial Index down 3 to the 189s.  The MLP index fell 3 to the 365s after yesterday's big rise & the REIT index was down almost 2 to the 251s.  Junk bond funds slipped & Treasuries rose as stocks retreated.  Oil & gold fell with gold near its lows for 2012 in the mid $1500s.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.076%

U.S. 2-year

0.301%

U.S. 10-year

1.575%

CLQ12.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 12...79.59 ....Down 0.62 (0.8%)

GCM12.CMX...Gold Jun 12......1,571.60 ...Down 2.40  (0.1%)




Get the latest daily market update below:



Jobless Claims in U.S. Hovered Last Week Near This Year's High

Photo:   Bloomberg

The number of applications for unemployment benefits are hovering near the highest level of the year, showing little improvement in the US labor market.  Jobless claims decreased 6K to 386K last week according to the Labor Dept, in line with the forecast.  The prior week’s reading was revised up to 392K from 387K, matching an Apr figure as the steepest of 2012.  The 4-week moving average decreased slightly to 387K, which was the highest since Dec 3.  Concern about the fallout from the European debt mess & the so-called fiscal cliff that will face the US at the end of this year may prompt employers to keep payrolls lean. 

Jobless Claims in U.S. Hovered Last Week Near 2012 High


Consumer Confidence Climbs

Photo:   Bloomberg

US consumer spending & export growth were not as robust as previously believed in Q1, suggesting less momentum in the economy.  The Commerce Dept confirmed that the economy grew at a 1.9% annual pace in Q1, but the mix of growth was not encouraging.  Consumer spending, 70% of economic activity, increased at a 2.5% rate, rather than the previously reported 2.7% pace.  There are signs that consumer spending slowed in Q2, with retail sales falling in Apr & May.  Exports grew at a 4.2% rate instead of 7.2%.  The loss of momentum in both consumer spending & exports bodes ill for Q1 growth.  The Q2 growth rate is forecast around 2%, but with global demand cooling amid Europe's debt woes & an uncertain fiscal policy path at home forcing households to be cautious, even that estimate might be too optimistic.  Business inventories increased $54.4B, instead of $57.7B, adding only 0.1 percentage point to GDP growth compared with 0.21 percentage point in the previous estimate.  Excluding inventories, the economy grew at a revised 1.8% rate, rather than 1.7% & up from 1.1% in Q4. This data is drab.

U.S. Economy Grew 1.9% in First Quarter on Consumer Spending


The Supreme Court upheld Obamacare in a 5-4 vote.  But the eyes of traders are looking east towards Europe.  EU is having another big summit & there are growing worries that Spain & Italy could lose access to borrowing more funds without help from EU.  Little was expected from the summit & it looks like that low standard will not be met with disagreement among leading countries. Dow is up just 100 in Jun, a month the bulls were hoping would be a recovery month.

Dow Jones Industrials


stock chart






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Thursday, May 31, 2012

Markets tumble on disappointing economic data

Dow sank 88, decliners over advancers almost 4-1 & NAZ fell 32 (even high flyer Apple was down).  The Financial Index fell 1+ to the 185s, lowest level since the start of 2012.

The MLP index fell another big 5+ to the 363s (a 6 month low) & the REIT index was off 1+ to the 245s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries rose, pushing 10-year yields to record lows for a 2nd day, on concern the European debt crisis is widening & a slowdown in US economic expansion.  Oil was poised to cap the biggest monthly drop in more than 3 years on speculation that slowing US economic growth & Europe’s debt crisis will reduce fuel demand.  Gold is on track to have its worst run of monthly losses in more than 11 years as concern that Europe’s fiscal crisis drove investors to seek the dollar as a haven over the precious metal.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.056%

U.S. 2-year

0.258%

U.S. 10-year

1.576%

CLN12.NYM....Crude Oil Jul 12...87.71 ....Down 0.11  (0.1%)

GCM12.CMX...Gold Jun 12....1,568.20 ...Up 4.80  (0.3%)



Get the latest daily market update below:




Jobless Claims in U.S. Increased by 10,000 to 383,000 Last

Photo:   Bloomberg

The number applying for unemployment payments rose last week to a one-month high, signalling that progress in reducing joblessness may be stalling.  First-time claims rose 10K to 383K last week from a revised 373K in the prior week according to the Labor Dept & was above the estimate of 370K.  Estimates ranged from 364K- 377K.  The number of people on unemployment benefit rolls dropped.  The prior week’s applications were initially reported at 370K.  Last week’s claims were the highest since 392K in late Apr.  The 4-week moving average rose to 374K from 370K.   The number continuing to collect benefits dropped 36K to 3.24M but that does not include workers receiving extended benefits under federal programs.  The unemployment rate among those eligible for benefits held at 2.6%.  34 states & territories reported an increase in claims, while 19 reported a decrease.   Another weak jobless claims report is not encouraging before tomorrow's jobs report for May. 

Jobless Claims in U.S. Increased by 10,000 to 383,000


The US economy grew at an annual rate of 1.9% in Q1, slower than first estimated (2.2%) according to the Commerce Dept.  The downward revision was largely because consumers & govs spent less than first estimated, businesses restocked more slowly & the trade deficit grew sharply.  Analysts project the economy is growing at a slightly faster rate in Q2, 2-2½%, & some expect the economy will maintain that pace for all of 2012, an improvement from last year's 1.7% growth.  Still, growth of 2.5% is typically enough just to keep pace with population changes.  It takes almost twice as much growth to lower the unemployment rate by 1 percentage point over a year.  A rising trade deficit slows growth because the country is spending more on foreign-made products than it is taking in from sales of US made goods.  Less restocking means companies ordered fewer goods, which decreases factory production & weighs on growth.  Consumer spending grew at an annual rate of 2.7% in Q1.  While the fastest pace since the end of 2010, it was down from an initial estimate of 2.9%, largely because of fewer auto purchases.  Gov spending at all levels fell at a 3.9% annual rate, much more than the 3.0% decline first estimated.  It was the 6th straight qtr that gov spending has declined, reflecting budget constraints at the federal, state & local levels.  Growth is expected to pick up slightly this spring because of job growth & lower gas prices, allowing consumers to spend more freely.  The economic recovery continues to plod along.

Economy in U.S. Expanded Less Than Previously Estimated


Business activity in the US expanded in May at the slowest pace in more than 2 years as orders & production cooled.  The Institute for Supply Management said today its gauge decreased to 52.7, the lowest since Sep 2009, from 56.2 in Apr (readings greater than 50 signal growth).  Expectations were for a rise to 56.8.  While demand for automobiles continues to fuel factory output, the debt crisis in Europe & a slowdown in China may cause some businesses to cut back on spending & hiring.  It;s clear, the economy is not charging ahead on all cylinders.

Business Activity in U.S. Unexpectedly Grew at Slower Pace


A dreary day is closing a dreary month.  The chart below says it all.  Dow is up a measly 125 YTD, not what all those experts had in mind at the start of 2012.  Interesting that Apple (AAPL) & Facebook) (FB), both with large market caps & sexy, growth images, are sputtering.  The jobs report tomorrow is expected to show a gain of 150K jobs & there is a good chance that the data will disappoint.

Dow Industrials


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