Showing posts with label Macy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Macy. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 8, 2012

Markets fluctuate on worries over getting additional stimulus

Dow inched up 7, advancers & decliners were even & NAZ lost 4.  The Financial Index was off a fraction to just under 201.

The MLP Index fell 3+ to the 388s & the REIT index dropped 2+ to 263.  MLPs have slipping back (following a 7 week rally) over the last 3 weeks.  Junk bond funds inched higher but Treasuries were a little lower.  Oil fell for the first time in 4 days after a gov report showed fuel demand weakened last week & on concern that the Federal Reserve won’t implement additional stimulus measures.  Gold advanced for the 3rd time in 4 sessions on speculation that central banks will take steps to bolster their economies, increasing the appeal of the precious metal as a store of value.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.106%

U.S. 2-year

0.272%

U.S. 10-year

1.637%

CLU12.NYM...Crude Oil Sep 12...93.39 ...Down 0.28  (0.3%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Productivity in U.S. Rebounds as Employers Try to Curb Costs

Photo:   Bloomberg

The productivity of US workers rebounded in Q2 as employers sought to protect earnings by squeezing more out of existing staff.  The measure of worker output per hour increased at a 1.6% annual rate following a revised 0.5% drop in Q1 according to the Labor Dept.  Q2 productivity was projected to rise at a 1.4% annual rate.  Expenses per employee climbed at a 1.7% rate after surging a revised 5.6%.  The drop in productivity at the start of 2012, combined with a slowdown in profits, may be prompting companies to focus on enhancing efficiency to curb costs, making a pickup in employment more difficult.  A jobless rate holding above 8% for more than 3 years is among reasons the Federal Reserve said it is ready to take additional action if needed.

Productivity in U.S. Rebounds as Employers Try to Curb Costs

  • <p>               FILE - In this May 10, 2011 file photo, people carrying Macy's shopping bags walk past the Macy's flagship store, in New York. Macy's Inc. is reporting a nearly 16 percent increase in net income for its second quarter Wednesday, Aug. 8, 2012, as the department store chain continues to benefit from its strategy to tailor its merchandise to local markets. Macy's says that its net income rose to $279 million, or 67 cents per share, for the three-month period ended July 28.  (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer, File)
Photo:   Yahoo

Macy's reported a 16% increase in net income for Q2, helped by cost-cutting & its strategy to tailor its merchandise to local markets.  The department chain, which also raised annual earnings guidance.  Macy's has been a standout among its peers throughout the economic recovery & is the first in a series of major retailers to report Q2 results, providing insight into how consumers are spending.  "Clearly, we are not operating in an ideal macroeconomic environment," CFO Karen Hoguet said.  "Issues like unemployment and housing prices continue to be on the minds of our customers. But we believe that Macy's and Bloomingdale's still have the opportunity to grow sales and earnings by listening closely to our customer and delivering exactly what they need, when and where they need it. That is the underlying principle behind our core strategies."  It also conceded business was hurt in Q2 by lower spending by intl tourists & temporary disruptions related to its major renovation of its flagship store in Manhattan.  Terry J. Lundgren, CEO, said Macy's is staying firmly focused on driving profitable sales growth while running the business with discipline.  EPS rose to 67¢ from 55¢ last year.  Revenue rose 3% to $6.1B.  Analysts expected EPS of 64¢ on revenue of $6.1B.  Revenue at stores open at least a year also rose 3%, helped by surging online sales.  However, sales were uneven with Jun sales below expectations followed by a Jul rebound.  The stock gained 1.03.

Macy's posts 16 percent hike in 2Q net income AP

Macy's (M)

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Greece Credit-Rating Outlook Lowered by S&P as Economy Weakens

Photo:   Bloomberg

Greece's credit rating may be cut again by S&P on concern the country will need more support from the EU.  The outlook on its CCC rating (8 levels below investment grade) was revised to negative from stable.  The change reflects the risk of a downgrade if Greece is unable to obtain its next disbursement of bailout loans from the EU & IMF rescue package.  Representatives from the troika of the European Commission, ECB & IMF return to Athens next month to review Greece’s economic program, which will determine whether the nation will receive additional funds from rescue packages, amounting to €240B ($297B), needed to remain in the 17-nation euro area.  Prime Minister Samaras has held meetings with the leaders of the 2 parties supporting his coalition gov to hash out a €11.5B package of budget cuts demanded by the creditors for the next 2 years.  Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras said yesterday the gov is still working on identifying almost a third of the cuts.  Greece’s economy has been squeezed by the fiscal tightening needed to qualify for rescue-loan disbursements, with GDP set to drop for a 5th straight year.  The country may need as much as €7B in loans this year, with GDP seen shrinking as much as 11% in 2012 & 2013, S&P said.  These are not encouraging words.

Greece’s Rating Outlook Lowered by S&P as Economy Weakens


Stocks are back to looking for direction with no significant news to inspire buyers or sellers.  Much of the reasoning behind recent stock buying has been on hopes for more stimulus in Europe & the US.  That is a tricky call & hardly a fundamental reason for higher stock prices.  The US economy continues to lumber along, getting a good but not great review.  Europe is dismal, as it has been for most of the last year or 2.  But bulls are in charge & have given the Dow a substantial gain since last Oct.

Dow Jones Industrials


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Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Markets tumble on growing Euro debt fears

Dow dropped 71 (but off the lows), decliners over advancers 4-1 & NAZ lost 14.  Bank stocks are leading the selling, taking the Financial Index down 2½ to 200 (its Feb lows).  The MLP index fell 3 to 382 (down 7 YTD) & the REIT index 2 to 258.  Junk bond funds edged lower & Treasuries remained in demand.  Oil fell for a 6th day, the longest stretch of declines in almost 2 years, after US crude supplies climbed & Greece struggled to form a gov, bolstering concern that Europe’s debt crisis will spread.  Gold should benefit from its safe haven qualities, but saw more selling taking it near its 10 month lows.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.086%

U.S. 2-year

0.254%

U.S. 10-year

1.804%

CLM12.NYMCrude Oil Jun 1295.85 Down 1.16 (1.2%)

GCK12.CMXGold May 121,592.50 Down 11.50 (0.7%)



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Moody’s will be cutting the credit ratings of more than 100 banks, a move that risks pushing up their funding costs & forcing them to curb lending in a threat to economic growth.  France’s biggest lender, Germany’s largest & Morgan Stanley (MS) are among firms that face having their short- & long-term debt downgraded to their lowest-ever levels by Moody’s.  The cuts, which would follow downgrades by S&P, & Fitch last year, could erode profits, trigger margin calls & leave some firms unable to borrow from money- market funds that have strict rules on who they can lend to.  Without access to funding from private sources, banks have had to sell assets & reduce lending.  Even after the ECB provided an unprecedented €1T ($1.3T) of 3-year loans to bolster the region’s banks, loans to non-financial companies in the euro area fell 0.17% in Apr, according to ECB data.  Europe’s economy probably slipped into recession in Q1 as the debt crisis forced govs to step up spending cuts.  This is a setback for banks after progress they have made improving balance sheets.

Moody’s Bank Downgrades Risk Choking European Recovery


US wholesalers increased their stockpiles more slowly in Mar after seeing less growth in sales.  The Commerce Dept said wholesale stockpiles increased 0.3% in Mar, just one-third of the 0.9% rise in Feb & below the forecast of a 0.6% gain.  Mar sales were up 0.5%, about half the 1.1% sales gain in Feb.  Weaker stockpile growth means businesses aren't stepping up orders for goods.  That typically means less growth in factory production & slower economic growth.  While restocking has been growing more slowly this year, the steady gains have pushed wholesale stockpiles to $480B, up 25.3% from the low-point in Sept 2009.

U.S. March Wholesale Inventories Rise 0.3%, Sales Climb 0.5%


Macy's reported a 38% increase in Q1 profit as it continues to reap benefits from its move to tailor its fashions to local markets.  The earnings beat expectations, but its shares fell as it failed to make a conforming boost in its earnings guidance for the year.  EPS was 43¢, up from 30¢ last year.  Revenue rose 4.3% to $6.1B from $5.9B a year ago.  Analysts expected EPS of 40¢ on revenue of $6.14B.  "The momentum in our business at Macy's and Bloomingdale's continued to build in the first quarter, with sales and earnings exceeding our expectations going into the year,"  CEO Lundgren said.  "The quarterly data clearly demonstrates the strength of our results as we continue to implement our strategies."  Macy's has been able to navigate thru the recession & a slow recovery by embracing its own initiatives.  The chain has benefited from the strategy to tailor merchandise to local markets as consumer spending slowed down in 2007.  A better trained sales force also helped.  Revenue at stores open at least a year climbed 4.4%, though it had a weak finish to the period.  The measure was up 1.2% for Apr.  Macy's only slightly increased its annual guidance for revenue at stores open at least a year.  It now expects that figure to be up 3.7%, compared with its earlier guidance of 3.5%.  Macy's reaffirmed its EPS guidance for 2012 of $3.25-$3.30 & analysts expect $3.39.  The stock sank 1.58 (4%) in a weak market.

Macy’s Falls After 2012 Profit Forecast Trails Estimates

Macy's Inc (M)


stock chart


Stocks are having another bad day as concerns about the Euro debt mess grow.  Greece has no gov & there are no signs that the chaotic situation will end soon.  France is gearing up to reduce austerity measures needed to get its financial house in order.    Spain is another looming bailout situation.  In simple terms, Europe has huge debt problems & the spreading recession is making matter worse.  There are more indications that the US economic recovery is having to deal with headwinds.  Meanwhile Facebook is putting on a roadshow to sell its stock in a couple of weeks.  There is a lot of interest but I have a feeling the IPO will disappoint its fans, especially if the stock market continues to stumble.  Dow is down almost 600 from its peak at the start of May.

Dow Industrials


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Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Dow stumbles after topping 13,000

Dow crossed over 13k, but couldn't hold it.  It finished up only 15, decliners barely ahead of advancers & NAZ pulled back 3.  The Financial Index slipped a fraction to below 199, still near its interim highs.  The MLP index was fractionally lower to 408 while the REIT index fell 4 to 244.  Junk bond funds were mixed to lower but Treasuries sold off on news of the Greek bailout.  Oil climbed to the highest level since May on concerns about Europe's oil supplies.  Iran announced over the weekend that it will stop selling oil to Britain & France in retaliation for a planned European oil embargo this summer.  The chart below shows gold shot up 31 on growing doubts about the Greek bailout.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart



Click below for the latest market update:



Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.071%

U.S. 2-year

0.299%

U.S. 10-year

2.040%

CLH12.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 12...105.88 ...Up 2.64  (2.6%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Greece EU

Photo:   Bloomberg

The picture of the President of the Euro group Jean-Claude Juncker & IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde tells the story,  They're not wearing smiles from happiness!   The latest Greek aid package was approved, raising hopes that the worst phase of the sovereign debt crisis is over.  But the €130B ($172B) bailout highlights the weaknesses in Europe's response. The worry is that these problems could flare up & undermine recovery efforts in countries like Italy, Spain, Ireland & Portugal.  The EU's favored strategy has been to provide tightly controlled financial support to highly indebted countries, in the hope of buying them enough time to implement policies aimed at cutting budget deficits.  While such moves can deepen recessions, the goal is to eventually lower debt levels to win back the confidence in the bond markets.  But Greece's fate has exposed the severe limitations of Europe's approach to the crisis.  Austerity policies contributed to an estimated 6.8% drop in GDP last year. In 2010, the IMF had forecast that Greece's economy would only shrink 2.6% in 2011.  Officials want to avoid undertaking similar measures for other countries.  A range of measures over the last year have been introduced that may buy more time for struggling countries.  The EU is setting up large pools of money to make emergency loans.  Leaders have agreed to move toward more coordinated fiscal policies, which may pave the way for richer countries to transfer funds to poorer ones.  In Dec, the ECB lent $620B to banks, preventing a bank run & helping firms finance continued purchases of gov bonds. Spain's gov has already sold more than 30% of the $114B worth of bonds it was hoping to issue this year.  But one of the lessons of the post-crisis period in the US is that monetary stimulus may only be temporary.  Even in the US, monetary stimulus did little to repair the balance sheets of the most debt-laden sectors of the economy.  European gov debt levels may take a lot longer to fall than officials had hoped.  Certain govs could require even more aid because they will not be able to sell bonds into private markets at affordable interest rates.  Nobody knows how this will work out!



Macy’s reported its 3rd consecutive year of improved financial performance.  “We have more than doubled our earnings over the past three years, driven by innovative strategic initiatives that are being executed with discipline at both Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s. Our diluted earnings per share, adjusted for certain items, grew by 36 percent in fiscal 2011, on top of double-digit increases in each of 2009 and 2010,” said Terry J. Lundgren, CEO.   EPS was $1.74  in Q4, ahead of $1.55 in 2010.  For the full year, EPS was $2.92 ahead of guidance provided at the beginning of the year for $2.25-$2.30.  Sales for fiscal 2011 totaled $26.4B, up 5.6% from 2010.  On a same-store basis, sales rose 5.3%, better than initial guidance of 3%.  Online sales were up 40% in Q4 & 39.6% in fiscal 2011.  Online sales positively affected same-store sales by 1.7 percentage points in Q4 & 1.5 percentage points in fiscal 2011.  The stock gained 44¢.

Macy’s Quarterly Profit Beats Estimates on Controlled Holiday Promotions

Macy's Inc (M)


stock chart


This should have been a joyous day in the markets after Greek bailout II was approved.  But it wasn't, maybe because doubts & uncertainties remain.  Individual countries have to approve bailout II (France just did).  Then the bondholders have to approve significant haircuts on their investments, still uncertain.   In the US, there's the price of gas which keeps climbing & heading higher.  Buyers pushed Dow to 13,005 before giving up.  It's still close to that magic ceiling, but if it can't top it in a meaningful way tomorrow, it may see more headwinds.

12onth Average
State's Graph
Source:   AAA

Dow Industrials


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