Showing posts with label Warren Buffett. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Warren Buffett. Show all posts

Thursday, July 12, 2012

Markets flounder on global economic worries

Dow dropped 64, decliners over advancers almost 4-1 & NAZ fell 38.  The Financial Index was off 2+ to the 192s (its low for the month). 

The MLP index slipped 1+ to the 386s after a major recovery in the last month & the REIT index was off a fraction in the 262s.  Junk bond funds pulled back but Treasuries rose, bringing the yield on the 10 year Treasury near its record low 6 weeks ago.  Oil declined as the € slumped to a 2-year low (below $1.22), reducing investor appetite for raw materials & on signals that the global economic recovery is faltering.  Gold is testing its yearly lows.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.096%

U.S. 2-year

0.258%

U.S. 10-year

1.481%

CLQ12.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 12...84.40 .....Down 1.41  (1.6%)

GCN12.CMX...Gold Jul 12........1,558.00 ...Down 17.20  (1.1%)



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  • <p>               In this Tuesday, July 10, 2012 photo, people walk by the recruiters at a jobs fair in the Pittsburgh suburb of Green Tree, Pa. The number of people seeking unemployment benefits plunged last week to the lowest level in four years, a hopeful sign for the struggling job market. But the decline was partly due to temporary factors. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)
Photo:   Yahoo

The number seeking unemployment benefits plunged last week.  But a big reason was that some automakers skipped traditional summer shutdowns to keep up with demand, leading to fewer temporary layoffs of autoworkers.  Sales of new cars & trucks surged in Jun, extending the auto industry's rebound.  Automakers also began their Independence Day promotions early, lifting sales at the end of the month.  Applications for unemployment aid dropped 26K to 350K, according to the Labor Dept.  That's the lowest level since Mar 2008.  The 4-week average fell to 376K.  Expectations are that most of the decline will be reversed in the coming weeks.

Jobless Claims in U.S. Plunge on Fewer Auto Shutdowns


Fed Signals

Photo:   Bloomberg

The Federal Reserve (FED) signaled that a further economic slowdown would bring growing support for additional steps to spur the 3-year expansion.  A few members said the FED should ease policy to move the economy toward its targets for full employment & stable prices.  Several others said more action could be warranted if growth slows, risks intensified or inflation seemed likely to fall “persistently” below their goal.  As the FED extends Operation Twist program thru the end of the year, the members debated whether additional steps such as a 3rd round of asset purchases might be needed.  Some said there was a risk that buying more Treasuries might eventually disrupt the gov debt market.



Buffett Said to Have Sought ResCap Purchase Before Bankruptcy

Photo:   Bloomberg

Warren Buffett in an interview said that economic growth in the US is slowing even as the housing market shows signs of rebounding.  “The general economy in the United States has been more- or-less flat, and so the growth has tempered down,” he said today.  With residential housing, “we’re seeing a pickup, and it’s noticeable. It’s from a very low base and it doesn’t amount to a whole lot yet, but it’s getting better.”  Buffett’s remarks contrast with his comments a year ago that the economy and jobs will “come back big time” when residential construction recovers.  US unemployment has exceeded 8% for more than 3 years.  “I’ve got a little different story this time,” he said.  “For a couple years I’ve been telling you that everything except residential housing was improving at a moderate rate, not crawling, but not galloping either, but that residential housing was flat-lining. And the last two months it’s been just sort of the opposite.”  Spending in Europe has slowed as the region grapples with a debt crisis, causing businesses to “pull in their horns,” Buffett added.  “Europe is really, it’s headed downward in the last, I don’t know, six weeks or so,” Buffett said. “It wasn’t going that way before. It wasn’t doing that well, but it hadn’t really hit the skids.”  Buffett has said he believes in the long-term prospects of the US & has called his 2010 purchase of railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe an “all in wager” on the country’s economy.  Warren's words are always helpful in understanding where the markets are.

Buffett Says U.S. Economy Slowing Even as Housing Shows Signs of Rebound


This is the 6th straight day of market declines as traders prepare for Q2 reports.  Tomorrow JPMorgan (JPM), a Dow stock, will be the first bank to give results.  While it's expected to report a profit, its European debt mess will take up a lot of time in the Q&A with reporters.  The rest of today will probably be soggy. 

Dow Jones Industrials


stock chart







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Monday, November 21, 2011

Markets sell off on recession and sovereign debt worries

Dow lost 248, decliners over avancers almost 6-1 & NAZ was down 49,  Stocks finished off the lows, but all considered, that was little consolation.  The Financial Index fell 4 to the 163s, approaching its Sep lows,

The MLP index ended down 3+ to the 365s & the REIT index was down 6 to the 214s.  Junk bond funds were mixed to lower & Treasuries rose.  Oil fell on debt woes.  Gold took a nasty tumble, going below 1700, near its Oct lows. 

AMZ  Alerian MLP Index




DJR  Dow Jones Equity REIT Index




Click below for the latest market update:



Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.005%

U.S. 2-year

0.266%

U.S. 10-year

1.964%
CLF12.NYM...Crude Oil Jan 12...96.81 ...Down 0.86  (0.9%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett

Photo:   Bloomberg

On a down day for stocks, it's always good to her about Warren buying more stock.  His Berkshire Hathaway invested $24B in Q3 & could spend as much as $10B on its next acquisition.  Buffett has $8-$10B to spend on the right investment, though he has no specific merger-and-acquisition plans currently, he said.  “We like the A part better,” Buffett,said, referring to a preference for acquisitions over mergers. “On the Lubrizol transaction I think we spent about $8.7 billion.  We’d love another one like that -- we can handle that.  We can manage somewhat larger. We can handle a $10 billion deal very comfortably.”   He has turned to stocks & takeovers this year after interest-rate declines limited returns in the bond market.  BRK.A investable funds were boosted in Oct by a $3.3B payment from General Electric (GE), a Dow stock, that ended Buffett’s 2008 financing deal.  Many BRK.A units are producing better results than last year, when the company posted a $13B of profit.  

Buffett Could Spend $10B on Next Investment

BRK.A    Berkshire Hathaway Inc.




A trend to postpone or forgo having babies may delay the recovery from the 5-year housing slump & restrain future spending on goods & services from child care to diapers, soaps & toothpaste.  The number of births fell to under 4M last year, the fewest since 1999, according to National Center for Health Statistics data & US births may not recover until 2013.  A weak economic recovery is encouraging famlies to choose renting over buying a home & this trend is likely to persist.  These changes bring a muted recovery, especially for building new homes.  The number of births is similar to 2001, when the US was in “the early phase of expansion” after an 8-month recession.  Consumer surveys & sales of infant products reinforce this concern.  A Nielsen analysis for Kimberly-Clark (KMB) forecasts US births will drop 0.4% this year to 3.99M, the first time under 4M since 1999, & will be “flat to slightly negative” at about 3.989M in 2012.  Limited population growth is a factor not well appreciated when making forecasts about an economic recovery.



The collapse of talks by the supercommittee was a coming event.  Now the politicos are trying to tape together a last minute agreement involving more than $1T.  It's difficult to imagine anything will come at the last minute & if there is an agreement, who knows where that will lead!  The US economy is still in an iffy stage of recovery & is threatened with a reduction in gov spending (AFTER NEXT YEAR'S ELECTIONS!).  This will not stimulate greater investment in new factories & businesses.  Dow is just above 11½K, a very sensitive level.  The semi-holiday week can bring significant changes for the markets & indications are for more selling given the rise in uncertainty about US & European debt problems..

Dow Jones Industrial Average





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Saturday, May 2, 2009

Warren Buffett's thoughts on bank stress tests

At Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.A) annual meeting, Warren Buffett told his stockholders that he didn't think much of the stress tests for the 19 major banks. Instead he said, “I think I know their future, frankly, better than somebody that comes in to take a look, (who) may be using more of a checklist-type approach.” BRK has substantial investments in banks such as Wells Fargo (WFC) & US Bancorp (USB). BRK has felt selling pressure in the stock market like most other financial issues.

However, a former bank examiner, said regulators will require banks to maintain tangible common equity (a conservative measure of capital) equal to 4% of their risk-weighted assets over the next 2 years, to withstand losses if the recession worsens. There is a lot of talk that Bank of America (BAC) & Citigroup (C), among others in the group, could each need $60+B of added capital, with the potential of diluting existing shares substantially. Bank stocks can be expected to be under a lot of pressure until stress test results are announced on Thurs.


•Buffett Dismisses Value of Government Stress Tests in Making Investments
•Fed's Stress Test May Compel 14 Banks to Raise Capital, FBR's Miller Says


Berkshire Hathaway --- 2 years

Friday, October 17, 2008

Stocks meander, looking for direction

Last night, Asian Markets were up but only mildly. The big decliner was the Korean market which is having to deal with major banking problems that their central bank is trying to fix. Asian markets rose this week, first time in 2 months, providing a degree of hope.

After starting off down 250, Dow fought back to break even & remains nearby. Dow is even, advancers equal decliners & NAZ is up 11 ((helped by Google (GOOG) reporting good earnings last night)). Today is also an option expiration day, providing a little extra excitement for the traders. S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX is down 1, the Alerian MLP index rose 8 taking it back over 200 & the Dow Jones REIT Index is up 2.

As I suspected last night, the Alerian MLP Index had a glitch in its daily trade number yesterday by providing a change for 2 days, not just one. A couple of stocks had similar glitches. The important point is the MLP index is down sharply in this month alone. 2 years ago at this time, it was on a 70 point march upward which took 9 months. Last week, it dropped 70 in 3 ugly days, that's what we have to deal with now.

Oil is trying to get back over 70, but that's still over a 50% drop from its peak 3 months ago while gold has been having a tough time lately (maybe influenced by global economic worries):

CLX08.NYMCrude Oil Nov 08....71.61 ...Up 1.76 (2.5%)

GCV08.CMXGold Oct 08....775.90 ...Down 25.60 (3.2%)


Macro economic numbers keeping coming & their glum. The Michigan Surveys of Consumers confidence plunged to 57.5 in Oct down from 70.3 in the prior month, the largest monthly decline in history. There have been only 4 monthly declines of 10 points or more. The report said, "All of the prior double-digit declines were based on severe economic dislocations with the losses accelerated by fear and panic." Expectations were for 65.5. Since 1952, the record low was 51.7 back in May 1980.

New home construction fell 6.3% in Sep vs expectations of 1.6%. The industry is on pace to construct the fewest new homes & apartments in 2008 since the end of World War II, no great surprise.

•U.S. Consumer Confidence Falls Most on Record Amid Job Losses, Credit Woes
•
Single-Family Housing Starts in U.S. Tumble to 26-Year Low; Permits Plunge


IBM (IBM), a Dow stock, reported very good earnings sending the stock up 77¢. However, VF Corp (VFC), maker of Lees, Wranglers & other leisure clothing, reduced its estimate for Q4 earnings growth from 20% to under 5%, stock down 2.33. Their dividend was increased by 4¢ annualized (they are an S&P Dividend Aristocrat).

IBM profit gains on software, services
Clothing giant VF Corp. cuts fourth-quarter view


Hedge funds have not done well this year & their redemptions have brought large stock sales, aggravating the declines & increasing the market volatility which has become routine.

•Hedge-Fund Assets Declined by 11% in Third Quarter on Record Withdrawals


There are optimists among all the gloom. JP Morgan has ideas about 16 major companies which they think are worth owning in these troubled times. Warren Buffet said he is buying stocks with his personal money, demonstrating his belief in their long term values.

•JPMorgan Picks 16 U.S. Stocks to Buy as Economies Enter `Global Recession'
Warren Buffett: Buy Stocks! Cash Is Trash!