Showing posts with label home foreclosures. Show all posts
Showing posts with label home foreclosures. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Fourth straight decline for anxious markets

Dow dropped 83, decliners over advancers 5-2 & NAZ was off 29.  The Financial Index lost 1+ to the 193s, a low since Jun 28.  The MLP index slid 1½ to the 383s & the REIT index dropped 4 to 261.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries rose, bringing the yield on the 10 year Treasury back to 1½%.  Oil fell despite growing tensions with Iran & gold lost more than 20, failing to get above 1600.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.086%

U.S. 2-year

0.266%

U.S. 10-year

1.500%

CLQ12.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 12...84.08 ...Down 1.91  (2.2%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Job Openings in U.S. Climbed in May and Hiring Accelerated

Photo:   Bloomberg

May job openings increased after plunging in the prior month.  The number of positions waiting to be filled climbed 195K to 3.6M, partially countering the 294K drop in Apr, according to the Labor Dept.  But another report showed confidence among small companies slumped in Jun.  Increasing demand for workers indicates some companies see an opportunity to expand as sales improve.  At the same time, the report showed layoffs also picked up, indicating the European debt crisis & slowing growth in emerging markets like China may be prompting some employers to cut back.  Confidence among small US companies dropped in Jun to its lowest point since Oct, driven by concern that sales & the economy will deteriorate.  The National Federation of Independent Business's optimism index fell to 91.4 from 94.4 in May, the biggest monthly decline in 2 years with 8 of its 10 components contributing to the slump.  The economic recovery is sputtering.



Growing activity in the spring housing market brought new growth in home prices, but those gains are growing more precarious because they are dependent on low-priced, distressed properties.  While prices in the past 3 months rose 1.7% on a national average from a year ago, according to Clear Capital, the biggest gains were in the West, where foreclosures & short sales are often the majority of a local market's activity.  For example in Minneapolis, 35% of home sales are foreclosures & prices there rose more than 13% from a year ago.  The same happened in Columbus, Ohio where prices rose 14% & 1/3 of sales were foreclosed properties.  While foreclosures brought home prices down initially, they are now driving them up because there is so much demand from investors & first time buyers, looking for bargains.  Supplies of these cheap homes are also dwindling, because banks are still working to modify many troubled loans & states that require a judge in the foreclosure process are still facing a huge backlog.  Phoenix is a prime example where prices are up 20% from a year ago because so much of the market was foreclosures.  They used to make up more than half of all sales, but now they're down to about 23% because there are just not that many foreclosures left to buy.  Investors honed in on the market, buying properties in bulk to put them up for rent.  Some investors are even cashing out & selling.  Recovering sales in these markets could be hiding a real market where sales of ongoing properties are really falling.

Foreclosure Supply Could Prevent a Housing Bottom


Advanced Micro Devices slashed its outlook for Q2 revenue after seeing disappointing sales in China & Europe, becoming one of the biggest tech names to date to warn that a global economic slowdown is taking a harsher-than-expected toll.  PC-related firms have been hit by a slump in demand as smartphones & tablets grow in popularity but its woes were also seen as at least partly company-specific.  Q2 revenue may drop 11% from the $1.6B booked in Q1, worse than its previous forecast of flat sales to a 6% rise.  An 11% revenue decline would be its worst decline since Q4 2008, when revenue plunged 35%.  Despite the cut in revenue outlook, AMD reiterated prior guidance for Q2 gross margin to be flat to slightly up from Q1, saying operating expenses will be about 8 % less than its earlier forecast.  The stock dropped 63¢.

AMD warns Q2 sales to take hit on global economic slowdownat Reuters

AMD (AMD)


stock chart


Stocks fell for a 4th day as pessimism about the earnings season grew while commodity producers slid amid lower oil & metal prices.  2 earnings warnings in the last 24 hours are biting hard.  Following winds are hard to find in this market.  Dow is just 150 above its lows set 2 weeks ago & may be testing them in a day or 2.  It's only 550 above the Jun low set a month ago, earnings season may not be pretty.

Dow Jones Industrials


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Thursday, March 15, 2012

S&P 500 closes at 1402, a 4 year high

Dow rose 58 (closing at the highs), advancers over decliners a mild 4-3 & NAZ was up 15 (with no  help from Apple).  As has been the case recently, bank stocks led the way taking the Financial Index up almost 4 to the 211s.  

The MLP index fell a fraction in the 396s (off its lows) & the REIT index was off pocket change in the 249s.  Junk bond funds were mixed to lower while Treasuries had limited losses.  Crude trimmed losses as the administration denied a report that the US & UK had agreed to release oil from strategic reserves.  Gold, the green line in its graph, found buyers after its recent sell-off.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart



Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.076%

U.S. 2-year

0.362%

U.S. 10-year

2.276%

CLJ12.NYM...Crude Oil Apr 12...105.35 ...Down 0.08  (0.1%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Apple Passes $600 a Share for First Time on IPad

Photo:   Bloomberg

With a 45% move already in 2012, it's neither heresy nor bearish to suggest Apple shares may need a bit of a pause at some point.  A baby dip may be upon us.  Its shares, getting a boost from anticipation of the new iPad3, rose past $600 (another new record) today for the first time.  However we may see a dip after iPad3 hits the shelves tomorrow, but it would come on the heels of the 6% gain the stock has had since the product was announced on Mar 7.  Someday AAPL is going to slip up & the stock will suffer.  From all appearances, its fans say that day of reckoning is well over the horizon.  Profit taking finally reached the stock today, dropping 3 to 586.

Apple Passes $600 a Share for First Time Ahead of New IPad’s Sales Debut

Apple Inc. (AAPL)


stock chart


Foreclosure filings fell 8% in February, the smallest year-over-year decrease since Oct 2010, as lenders began working through a backlog of seized properties, according to RealtyTrac.  207K homes received notices of default, auction or repossession last month, down 2% from Jan (one in every 637 households).  Filings climbed in the 26 states where courts oversee foreclosures, rising 2% from Jan & 24% from a year earlier.  Half of the 20 largest metropolitan areas had gains, led by Tampa & Miami.  In the 24 states where seizures can proceed without court approval, filings declined 5% from Jan & 23% from Feb 2011.  Default filings, a lender’s first notice of serious delinquency, were sent to 59K properties, up 1% from Jan & down 7% from a year earlier.  Auctions were scheduled on 84K homes, down 2% from the previous month & 13% from a year earlier.  Repossessions, the final stage of foreclosure, were completed on 64K properties, down 4% from Jan & 1% from Feb 2011.  This dark cloud overhangs any housing recovery.

Foreclosure Filings Decline 8% in U.S. With Increase in Seizures to Come


Treasuries erased losses, pushing benchmark 10-year note yields down from the highest level in more than 4 months, as technical indicators suggested gov securities may have plunged too far, too fast.  10-year yields climbed for a 7th day, the longest stretch since 2006.  The rate rose to as high as 2.35%, the most since Oct 28.  While yields are rising, the 10-year rate is about 1.5 percentage points less than last year’s high of 3.77% reached on Feb 9.  The yield has averaged 3.87% in the past decade.



The S&P 500 closed above 1400, a 4 year high, & chart people like to see that.  Markets are feeling good after Dow broke thru the 13K barrier convincingly earlier this week.  European debt issues have been put on a back burner, those problems will take care of themselves.  One interesting diversion is with the MLPs which have been market leaders over the last 3 years.  The fundamental business of MLPS, adding to pipelines & terminals for (mainly) oil & gas, has gone on thru the recession & the post recession period.  So far, their recent lagging performance can be chalked up to as just one of those things & the increase in competitive Treasury yields.

Dow Industrials


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Thursday, March 1, 2012

Markets waffle again, failing to take the Dow over 13,000

Dow picked up 28, advancers ahead of decliners 2-1 & NAZ was up 22.  Bank stocks led the the way higher, taking the Financial Index up 2½ to 201 for a new 7 month high. 

The MLP index rose 2 to the 410s & the REIT index was up a fraction to 244.  Junk bond funds gained but Treasuries pulled back, primarily related to the report on jobless claims.  Oil was had a good day as it nears $110 & gold recovered some of yesterday's big loss.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart




Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.071%

U.S. 2-year

0.289%

U.S. 10-year

2.035%

CLJ12.NYM.....Crude Oil Apr 12...109.20 ....Up 2.13  (2.0%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




  • The Chrysler 700 C concept van is displayed on the final press preview day for the North American International Auto Show in Detroit, Michigan, January 10, 2012. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook
Photo:   Yahoo

Feb auto sales rose to their highest annual sales rate in nearly 4 years as consumer confidence improved & drivers gave in to the need to replace their aging cars & trucks.  The annual sales rate was on track to reach 14.7M, the best monthly showing since Mar 2008 (before the financial crisis).  GM sales rose 1.1% to 209K vehicles, versus a forecasted decline, as the #1 automaker offered fewer incentives compared with a year earlier.  Ford sold 179K, up 14% from last year's levels.  Chrysler, sold 133K, up 40% from last Feb.  Volkswagen sold 30, up 42%.  New vehicle sales at Nissan rose 15% at 106K.  GM predicted the annual sales pace in Feb would be 14.5-14.9M vehicles.  The average forecast was for an annualized pace of 14M with the high estimate at 14.4M, up from 13.3M a year earlier.  The car business is strong.

February auto sales rise; GM posts surprise gain


Foreclosure Homes Rise to 24% of Purchases

Photo:    Bloomberg

Homes in or nearing foreclosure accounted for almost a fourth of residential purchases in Q4 as lenders approved more short sales (where the price is less than the amount owed).  Deals for bank-owned & distressed properties rose to 24% of total home sales from 20% in Q3, according to RealtyTrac.  Transactions fell 26% from a year earlier.  “We expect to see foreclosure-related sales increase in 2012, particularly pre-foreclosure sales,” CEO Bandon Moore said.  Banks may “aggressively” resume unloading distressed property after an 18-month delay brought on by federal & state legal probes into flawed foreclosure paperwork & documentation, Moore said.  Q4 showed lenders turning to short sales as a “better option” than holding a house whose borrower doesn’t make any payments, he said.  The number of short sales jumped 15% from Q4 of 2010 while purchases of bank-owned houses fell 12%.  A total of 89K pre-foreclosure properties sold in Q4, making up 10% of all transactions.  More supply (of houses) has been a major factor in limiting a recovery in housing.

Foreclosures Rise to 24% of U.S. Home Purchases as Short Sales Increase


A judge decided against blocking Kinder Morgan's $23B acquisition of El Paso despite claims by some investors that EP executives had undervalued the company to make it more attractive, saying that it should be left to EP shareholders to approve the deal.  "El Paso stockholders should not be deprived of the chance to decide for themselves about the merger, despite the disturbing nature of some of the behavior leading to its terms," judge Strine said.  Last Oct, KMP said it planned to take over EP & spin off the production business while keeping its pipelines to become America's largest natural gas pipeline operator.  It would control over 80K miles of pipelines, allowing the company to negotiate more lucrative supply deals around the country.  A group of EP investors opposed the takeover, arguing that EP didn't negotiate the best price for the company.  In addition, the EP board was being advised by Goldman Sachs (GS) which the critics said had a conflict of interest because it owns 19% of KMP.  KMP was up 93¢ & EP rose 29¢.

Judge allows El Paso Corp. takeover to proceed AP

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P. (KMP)


stock chart

El Paso Corporation (EP)


stock chart


The economic news was reasonably good.  Auto sales, early returns from retailers & the jobless claims reports were encouraging, that that was not good enough to bring out buyers in force.  Banks & techs led the way up, but other stocks did not follow.  The € slipped another fraction of a penny to $1.33, signalling that all is not well there (especially with the Greek debt refinancing).  Gas at the pump went up to $3.74 yesterday & will be headed much higher with the price of crude oil near $110.  The inability of the Dow to cross over 13K has to be upsetting, even for the most bullish of bulls.

Dow Industrials


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