Showing posts with label job openings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label job openings. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Higher markets anticipating stimulus from the Federal Reserve

Dow added 69, advancers ahead of decliners 2-1 but NAZ was up pocket change.  The Financial Index rose 1½ to go over 210.  The MLP index was down a fraction in the 395s & the REIT index gained a fraction in the 269s.  Junk bond funds were higher & the 10 year Treasury pulled back a notch.  Oil rose for a 5th day on speculation that the Federal Reserve will announce additional measures to stimulate the economy, increasing fuel demand. Gold inched higher & remains in an upward trend.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


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Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.097%

U.S. 2-year

0.246%

U.S. 10-year

1.695%

CLV12.NYM...Crude Oil Oct 12...97.16...Up 0.62 (0.6%)
Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]





Wen Jiabao, Chinese Premier, signaled there’s more room for fiscal & monetary policy to support growth, saying the nation has full confidence it will meet its economic goals for the year.  “Be it monetary or fiscal, we still have ample strength,” Wen said yesterday in Tianjin.  The gov has 100B yuan ($16B) in a fiscal stabilization fund & “we will appropriately use that for preemptive policy and fine-tuning to propel stable economic growth,” he said.  The gov is trying to prevent growth this year from slipping below the 7.5% target set in Mar, which would already be the weakest since 1990.  Some economists have lowered expansion forecasts as China grapples with slowing industrial output & export gains, increasing pressure to ease policy.  The country will continue to place more emphasis on ensuring stable growth, Wen said.  He reiterated that China will maintain a proactive fiscal policy & prudent monetary policy, & said the nation has implemented a series of steps to promote domestic demand.  The economic goings on in China are important in the worldwide economy.

Wen Signals China Has Ample Policy Room to Meet Growth Target


House Speaker John Boehner said that he's not confident Congress can reach a budget deal & avoid a downgrading of the US debt rating.  But Harry Reid, was far more hopeful that "some kind of agreement" would be reached after the elections.  Boehner was asked how confident he was that negotiations would prevent the gov from hitting a fiscal cliff, an economy rattling set of across-the-board spending cuts & higher taxes caused by the expiration of tax cuts that are set to hit in Jan.  "I'm not confident at all," he said.  Boehner reminded reporters that the House has passed legislation to both avoid the automatic, across-the-board cuts next year & renew cuts for one year as well. Reps warned of the impact of the impending cuts on the military & implored Senate Dems to act to avoid them.  "I'm hopeful we will reach some kind of agreement," countered Reid, suggesting that the results of the election will weaken the GOP's resolve to block tax increases on wealthier earners & that Reps will be more willing to compromise.  The fiscal cliff is an immediate issue & legislation is dead in the water.  Meanwhile, businesses are playing cards close to the vest, limiting expansion plans which include hiring more workers.  Not good for the markets.

Boehner expresses no confidence on budget deal AP

  • <p>               FILE-In this Tuesday, July 17, 2012, file photo, business employment specialist Linda Reynolds, right, helps job searcher D'Andre Preston at WorkSource Oregon  in Tualatin, Ore. U.S. employers posted fewer jobs in July than in June, the latest evidence that hiring is weak. Job openings fell to a seasonally adjusted 3.67 million, the Labor Department said Tuesday. That down from June's 3.72 million job openings, which was revised lower.(AP Photo/Rick Bowmer, File)
Photo:   Yahoo

US employers posted fewer jobs in Jul than in Jun, further evidence that hiring may stay weak in the coming months.  Job openings fell to 3.67M according to the Labor Dept, down from 3.72M in Jun (which was revised lower).  This follows the disappointing employment report, which said the economy added only 96K jobs in Aug.  The drop in available positions has made job hunting more competitive.  Nearly 12.8M people were unemployed in Jul, meaning 3.5 were competing for each open position.  While down from a post-recession high of 7 to 1 in Jul 2009, in a healthy economy the ratio is usually 2 to 1.  Job openings have increased 68% from 2.2M over the past 3 years.  But companies aren't filling them quickly as total hiring has increased only 11% in that stretch.  Companies may not be offering sufficient pay to entice workers to take the jobs & some employers say they can't find enough skilled workers.  Businesses are also worried about Europe's financial crisis, slowing growth in China & the pending expiration of tax breaks in the US.

US employers posted fewer open jobs in July AP


Tomorrow the German high court will decide whether the European Stabilization Mechanism, overseen by Mario Draghi, & the ECB can buy the sovereign debt of member states in financial trouble.  Then Big Ben speaks.  The markets have already decided the outcomes.  But I don't know.  Whatever the Federal Reserve does, DC remains stuck in the mud & that fiscal cliff keeps getting closer.  Nothing will be done until after elections & probably not finalized until Xmas.  That's the politicos in DC looking out for us folks.  Expansion plans are being put on hold, but Dow doesn't care because it's near a 4 year high.

Dow Jones Industrials


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Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Higher markets on hopes for more monetary easing

Dow gained 55, advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ added 21.  The Financial Index rose 1+ to the 201s, a new 3 month high.  The MLP index was off 1 to the 391s & the REIT index fell 2½ to the 265s.  Junk bond funds were mixed again & Treasuries sold off, taking the yield on the10 year Treasury up a very big 8 basis points to 1.63%.  Crude climbed to the highest level in more than 2 months after better-than-estimated corp earnings bolstered optimism that the economy will expand.  Gold trading was flattish.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.096%

U.S. 2-year

0.252%

U.S. 10-year

1.623%

CLU12.NYM...Crude Oil Sep 12...92.81 ...Up 0.61  (0.7%)

GCQ12.CMX...Gold Aug 12....1,610.30 ...Down 2.60  (0.2%)



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  • <p>               FILE - In this July 4, 2012 file photo Italian Premier Mario Monti gestures as he speaks during a joint press conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, unseen, during a bilateral meeting at Villa Madama in Rome. German news magazine Der Spiegel on Sunday, Aug. 5, 2012, quoted Monti as saying in an interview that "the tensions accompanying the eurozone over the past years already bear the signs of a psychological dissolution of Europe." He further told the magazine that the euro's disintegration would "destroy the founding of the European project."  (AP Photo/Riccardo De Luca)
Photo:   Yahoo

Italy's recession deepened in Q2, when the economy shrank for the 4th qtr in a row.  The economy contracted 0.7% compared with Q1, more than the 0.6% drop expected.  The ISTAT statistics agency said activity fell in all sectors: industry, services & agriculture.  The gov, which is trying to reduce debt, has made spending cuts & tax increases that are hurting businesses & households.  Fear that Italy will need a sovereign bailout if its borrowing rates rise further has created economic uncertainty.  Compared with Q2 of 2011, the economy shrank 2.5%, the worst year-on-year contraction since Q4 2009, when the economy shrank 3.5%.  Car production alone was down 22.5% in Jun compared with a year earlier.  Premier Mario Monti has recently been courting other European leaders seeking permission to slow down the pace of Italy's promised budget cuts, which tend to hurt the economy.  Experts say growth is a key element in bringing down the country's high public debt, which stands at 123% of GDP.  The gov expects the economy will contract 1.2% this year.  More negative news from the eurozone.

Italy Economy Shrinks for a Fourth Quarter as Slump Deepens


Job Openings in the U.S. Increased in June, Hiring Dropped

Photo:   Bloomberg

US. employers posted the most job openings in 4 years in Jun, a positive sign that hiring may pick up.  The Labor Dept said job openings rose to 3.8M in Jun, up from 3.7M in May, the most since May 2008.  Layoffs also fell.  The data follow Fri's report that said employers in Jul added the most jobs in 5 months.  A rise in openings could signal better hiring in the coming months.  It typically takes 1-3 months to fill a job.  But even with the increase, hiring is competitive.  There were 12.7M unemployed in Jun, or an average of 3.4 unemployed people for each job.  In a healthy job market, the ratio is usually around 2 to 1.

Job Openings in the U.S. Increased in June, Hiring Dropped

  • <p>               In a July 17, 2012 photo, a CVS drug store is lit up in Doral, Fla.  CVS Caremark said Tuesday Aug. 7, 2012, its second-quarter net income jumped more than 18 percent, as new business and an expansion of its pharmacy benefits management business pushed revenue higher.   (AP Photo/J Pat Carter)
Photo:  Yahoo

CVS Caremark Q2 net income jumped 18%, as new business for its drugstore chain & expansion of its pharmacy benefits management segment pushed revenue higher.  Adjusted earnings topped estimates & the company raised its forecast for 2012.  The company said a recently settled split between rival drugstore chain Walgreen (WAG) & Express Scripts Holding (ESRX) sent customers to CVS drugstores, & it aims to keep them.  The split added 6½-7M prescriptions in Q2 & contributed about 3.5¢ to EPS.  CVS is forecasting a gain of about 5¢ to EPS in Q3 & Q4.  In this year's Q4, it expects to keep at least 50% of the business it gained since the split began.  CEO Merlo said, "We've had the better part of nine months now to introduce these new customers to the CVS brand."  In Q2, EPS was 75¢, up from 60¢ a year ago.  Adjusted EPS came to 81¢, topping expectations of 79¢.  Revenue grew 16% to $30.7B from $26.4B last year & above the forecast of $31B.  Revenue from its PBM business climbed 28% to $18.4B, helped in part by the acquisition of Universal American's Medicare prescription drug coverage business.  Retail pharmacy revenue rose 7% to $15.8B, despite taking a hit from some generic drug introductions.  CVS expects 2012 adjusted EPS of $3.32-$3.38, up from its previous guidance of $3.23-$3.33 & analysts expect $3.33.  The stock fell 28¢.

CVS Caremark (CVS)


stock chart


This is shaping up as the 3rd consecutive days of gains for stocks.  Dow is up 300 in 3 days & NAZ went over 3K, a 3 month high.  Dow is up 1K off its lows at the start of Jun, a very nice run.  Earnings are viewed as good, although they are only beating lowered forecasts.  The € is over $1.24, a 1 month high on easing concerns about euro debts.  With reduced tensions in Europe, stocks look to be headed higher.

Dow Jones Industrials


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Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Fourth straight decline for anxious markets

Dow dropped 83, decliners over advancers 5-2 & NAZ was off 29.  The Financial Index lost 1+ to the 193s, a low since Jun 28.  The MLP index slid 1½ to the 383s & the REIT index dropped 4 to 261.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries rose, bringing the yield on the 10 year Treasury back to 1½%.  Oil fell despite growing tensions with Iran & gold lost more than 20, failing to get above 1600.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart



Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.086%

U.S. 2-year

0.266%

U.S. 10-year

1.500%

CLQ12.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 12...84.08 ...Down 1.91  (2.2%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Job Openings in U.S. Climbed in May and Hiring Accelerated

Photo:   Bloomberg

May job openings increased after plunging in the prior month.  The number of positions waiting to be filled climbed 195K to 3.6M, partially countering the 294K drop in Apr, according to the Labor Dept.  But another report showed confidence among small companies slumped in Jun.  Increasing demand for workers indicates some companies see an opportunity to expand as sales improve.  At the same time, the report showed layoffs also picked up, indicating the European debt crisis & slowing growth in emerging markets like China may be prompting some employers to cut back.  Confidence among small US companies dropped in Jun to its lowest point since Oct, driven by concern that sales & the economy will deteriorate.  The National Federation of Independent Business's optimism index fell to 91.4 from 94.4 in May, the biggest monthly decline in 2 years with 8 of its 10 components contributing to the slump.  The economic recovery is sputtering.



Growing activity in the spring housing market brought new growth in home prices, but those gains are growing more precarious because they are dependent on low-priced, distressed properties.  While prices in the past 3 months rose 1.7% on a national average from a year ago, according to Clear Capital, the biggest gains were in the West, where foreclosures & short sales are often the majority of a local market's activity.  For example in Minneapolis, 35% of home sales are foreclosures & prices there rose more than 13% from a year ago.  The same happened in Columbus, Ohio where prices rose 14% & 1/3 of sales were foreclosed properties.  While foreclosures brought home prices down initially, they are now driving them up because there is so much demand from investors & first time buyers, looking for bargains.  Supplies of these cheap homes are also dwindling, because banks are still working to modify many troubled loans & states that require a judge in the foreclosure process are still facing a huge backlog.  Phoenix is a prime example where prices are up 20% from a year ago because so much of the market was foreclosures.  They used to make up more than half of all sales, but now they're down to about 23% because there are just not that many foreclosures left to buy.  Investors honed in on the market, buying properties in bulk to put them up for rent.  Some investors are even cashing out & selling.  Recovering sales in these markets could be hiding a real market where sales of ongoing properties are really falling.

Foreclosure Supply Could Prevent a Housing Bottom


Advanced Micro Devices slashed its outlook for Q2 revenue after seeing disappointing sales in China & Europe, becoming one of the biggest tech names to date to warn that a global economic slowdown is taking a harsher-than-expected toll.  PC-related firms have been hit by a slump in demand as smartphones & tablets grow in popularity but its woes were also seen as at least partly company-specific.  Q2 revenue may drop 11% from the $1.6B booked in Q1, worse than its previous forecast of flat sales to a 6% rise.  An 11% revenue decline would be its worst decline since Q4 2008, when revenue plunged 35%.  Despite the cut in revenue outlook, AMD reiterated prior guidance for Q2 gross margin to be flat to slightly up from Q1, saying operating expenses will be about 8 % less than its earlier forecast.  The stock dropped 63¢.

AMD warns Q2 sales to take hit on global economic slowdownat Reuters

AMD (AMD)


stock chart


Stocks fell for a 4th day as pessimism about the earnings season grew while commodity producers slid amid lower oil & metal prices.  2 earnings warnings in the last 24 hours are biting hard.  Following winds are hard to find in this market.  Dow is just 150 above its lows set 2 weeks ago & may be testing them in a day or 2.  It's only 550 above the Jun low set a month ago, earnings season may not be pretty.

Dow Jones Industrials


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Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Markets sell off on growing Greek debt crisis

Late day buying reduced the losses for stocks.  Dow finished down 76, decliners ahead of advancers 3-2 & NAZ was off only 11.  The Financial Index fell 1+ to the 202s, remaining near its 2 month lows.  The MLP index sank 5 to the 384s (down a huge 15 this month) & the REIT index was off a fraction to 260.  Junk bond funds eased lower & Treasuries rose, with yields falling to a 3-month low, as Greece’s struggle to form a gov bolstered demand at a $32B Treasury 3-year note auction to the highest level since Jan.  Oil fell for a 5th day as Saudi Arabian Oil Minister said prices should come down & the € weakened against after election results in Greece & France.  Gold should have found support, but it didn't.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


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Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.092%

U.S. 2-year

0.254%

U.S. 10-year

1.833%

CLM12.NYM...Crude Oil Jun 12...97.06 ....Down 0.88  (0.9%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Job Openings in U.S. Increased to Three-Year High in March

Photo Bloomberg

US employers were looking to fill more jobs in Mar than at any time in almost 4 years.  The number of open positions increased 172K to 3.74M, the most since Jul 2008, from a revised 3.57M in the prior month that was larger than previously estimated by the Labor Dept.  Another report showed small companies were more optimistic on their outlook.  More vacancies are a sign companies were looking to expand at the end of Q1, undaunted by the jump in fuel costs or concerns that global economic growth will slow.  This jobs opening report helps shed light on the dynamics behind the monthly employment figures.  Payrolls climbed 115K in Apr, the fewest in 6 months & less than the forecast showed.  It followed a revised 154K gain in Mar that was larger than initially estimated.  The number hired decreased to 4.36M in Mar from 4.44M in the previous month.  The hiring rate held at 3.3%.  Somewhat encouraging news but the trend is for a softer jobs market.



US manufacturers became less-optimistic about 2012 sales growth than at the end of last year, while service companies grew more upbeat.  Purchasing managers at US factories anticipate sales will grow 4.5% this year, less than a 5.5% Dec prediction, according to the Institute for Supply Management.  By contrast, service providers estimated revenue will climb 4.8% this year, up from the 3.1% forecast in Dec.  Factory managers remain confident enough that they estimate spending on new equipment will climb 6.2% in 2012, compared with a 1.9% increase projected in Dec.  Service providers forecast a 3.6% pickup in investment.  Manufacturers projected employment will increase 1.4% for the rest of this year, while service companies predicted a 1.9% gain.  Factory leaders see the cost of raw materials rising 2.3% this year, the report showed & service providers see a 2.6% increase in input costs this year.  This is another indication that the recovery is stumbling to some degree.

Factories in U.S. Grow Less Optimistic About Sales


IBM, a Dow stock, is offering $1.5B of bonds in its 2nd dollar- denominated debt offering this year, as yields in the corp bond market reach record lows.  IBM wants to sell $900M of 3-year notes at a relative yield of 45 basis points more than similar-maturity Treasuries, & $600M of 7-year bonds at 65 basis points.  In Feb, when IBM last issued debt, it got a record-low coupon on 3-year notes, selling $1.5B of 0.55% securities at 42 basis points more than Treasuries.  The proceeds will be used for general corp purposes.  The bonds are expected to be rated Aa3 by Moody's & A+  by S&P.  IBM is offering bonds as borrowing costs have reached record lows.  Investment-grade corp bond yields fell to 3.34% on May 4, the least in data going back to 1986.  IBM stock fell 1.96.

IBM Selling $1.5 Billion of Bonds as Company Yields Fall

International Business Machines Corporation (IBM)


stock chart


Buyers returned late in the day, but stocks still had a bad day.  While France may abolish recent austerity moves, Greece remains the focus of attention.  Some are betting it will leave the Euro area group shortly.  The parties can not come together to form a new gov.  With no gov, there is talk of another election next month when it will need another bailout to avoid default.  The Greek debt mess is going from bad to worse.  But the US stock markets are taking increased uncertainty with relative calm.  Treasuries are in demand (as is investment grade corp debt), but gold, the traditional safe haven investment, is not.  Dow fell below 13K, which doesn't mean much these days, but not by much & remains only 470 below its 2012 highs at the start of May.   

Dow Industrials

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