Friday, December 2, 2011

Early market gains pared in late day trading

Stocks pulled back in the PM.  Dow ended barely in the red  (just above 12K), advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ inched up a fraction (called that even).  Bank stocks led the price swings.  The Financial Index gained 2+ to 173, but was 3 below its AM highs.  

AM gains for MLPs & REITs were trimmed, bringing the indices to around even on the day.  Junk bond funds were mixed but Treasuries gained off AM lows amid concern about the resolve of European officials in their efforts to contain the region’s sovereign debt crisis.   Oil fluctuated as it headed for its first gain in 3 weeks on concern that tension between Iran & the West will intensify, threatening its oil shipments.   Gold has been marking time in the mid 1700s.

AMZ   Alerian MLP Index



DJR   Dow Jones Equity REIT Index




Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

-0.005%

U.S. 2-year

0.250%

U.S. 10-year

2.044%

CLF12.NYM...Crude Oil Jan 12...100.83 ...Up 0.63  (0.6%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]





Zynga Seeks Up to $1 Billion in Biggest Web IPO Since Google

Photo:   Bloomberg

Zynga, the maker of games on Facebook, is seeking as much as $1B in the biggest IPO since Google (GOOG).  The company wants to offer 100M shares for $8.50-$10,  The high end of the range would value Zynga at $7B (more than many established companies with shares that have traded for decades).  Zynga is selling all of the shares & expects to receive about $889M.  It had originally planned a larger IPO, scaling back after internet companies including sank following their debuts.  Zynga is selling about 14% of its stock, a larger portion than other companies have sold this year.  In addition, Facebook may raise about $10B in an IPO next year that would value it at more than $100B.  By way of comparison, GOOG raised $1.9B in its 2004 IPO. 

Zynga Eyes $1B in Biggest Web IPO Since Google


Greece has sped up plans to pass a 2012 austerity budget, hoping to press ahead with tough debt-reduction talks despite financial turmoil threatening the eurozone.  Debate has begun on the budget a day earlier than initially planned, maintaining deep cuts to slash the budget deficit from an estimated 9% of GDP this year to 5.4% in 2012.  Recent cuts introduced include a new property tax that would lead to households' electricity being cut off if they delay payments.  The tax is described as "absolutely necessary."  The budget, which will see Greece suffer a 4th year of recession in 2012, is to be voted on next week.  Greece fears Europe's escalating crisis could affect its own efforts to negotiate a massive 2nd bailout deal worth €130B ($176B).  The new deal hinges on plans for 50% writedowns on the value of Greek bonds held by private creditors, who will be offered bonds from a European rescue fund.  Negotiations on the large number of details involved in that deal are expected to extend for several weeks into the new year.  This Greek drama is nowhere near a conclusion.




  • A European proposal to for central bank loans to go thru the IMF may deliver up to €200B ($270B) to fight the debt crisis. At a meeting on Tues, euro-area finance ministers gave approval for work on the plan.  The need for a new crisis-containment tool emerged as the effort to boost the €440B rescue fund to €1T fell short of agreement.  Under the proposal, central banks would recycle funds thru the IMF, potentially to underwrite precautionary lending programs for Italy or Spain, the 2 countries judged to be the most vulnerable now.  No fewer than 4 “comprehensive” rescue packages over 19 months have failed to arrest the crisis, fueling speculation that a currency designed to last forever might break up unless European leaders forge a more united economy. Central bank loans may be linked to an adoption of tougher budget policing by govs & tighter economic ties.  This is called make it up as we go along, only they are talking about $1Ts, mind boggling sums.

    Euro Central Banks May Provide $270B via IMF


    After settling back in the last 2 days, Dow gained almost 800 this week.  This ranks as one of its best weeks ever.  OK, it was coming off deeply oversold conditions which can create violent reactions.  But this has been an unusually wild time along with other highly volatile times in 2011.  2 weeks ago was a down market & this week was an up market.  Anybody want to make a call for next week?

    Dow Jones Industrial Average




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    Markets rise on lower unemployment

    Dow rose 61, advancers ahead of decliners almost 4-1 & NAZ was up 17.  Banks stocks led the charge with the Financial Index rising 4 to 175.

    The MLP index rose 2 to the 375s & the REIT index gained 4 to 224.  Junk bond funds were up about 1% & Treasuries were flattish to higher.  Oil continues above $100, an important support level, while gold is heading for $1800 (again).

    AMZ    Alerian MLP Index



    DJR  Dow Jones Equity REIT Index




    Treasury yields:


    U.S. 3-month

    -0.005%

    U.S. 2-year

    0.262%

    U.S. 10-year

    2.117%

    CLF12.NYM...Crude Oil Jan 12...100.55 .....Up 0.35  (0.4%)

    GCZ11.CMX...Gold Dec 11......1,749.60 ...Up 14.30  (0.8%)


    Get the latest market update below:



    Weekly Jobless Claims Down

    Photo:   Bloomberg

    The unemployment rate fell to a 2½ year low of 8.6% in Nov & companies stepped up hiring.  Nonfarm payrolls increased 120K according to the Labor Dept, in line with expectations for a gain of 122K.  The relative strength of the report was also bolstered by revisions to the employment counts for Sep & Oct to show 72K more jobs created than previously reported.  While part of the decline in the unemployment rate from 9% in Oct was due to people leaving the labor force, the household survey from which the jobless rate is derived also showed solid gains in employment.  However, retail accounted for more than a third all new private sector jobs (low payng) in Nov.  The report could temper the appetite among some Federal Reserve (FED) officials to ease monetary policy further. In forecasts released earlier this month, the FED said the jobless rate would likely average 9-9.1% in Q4 & did not expect it to drop to an 8.5-8.7% range until late next year.  Moderately good news, but job creation is critical & that gets only a so- so grade.

    U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%


    Western Digital jumped after it raised quarterly revenue forecast, citing its recovery from flooding in Thailand.  Revenue will be at least $1.8B in Q4.  After flooding in Thailand devastated factories & constrained supplies, WDC predicted sales of $1.05-$1.25B.  The company resumed hard-drive production inthis week, “well in advance of our earliest expectations when the floods hit,” CEO John Coyne said.  WDC & Seagate (STX) signaled this week that the industry is recovering from the disaster. The floodwaters engulfed much of the industrial heartland north of Bangkok, sidelining production of disk drives & components.  WDC was hit worse than STX (whose factories weren’t directly affected).  The stock was up 2.76 (9%).


    WDC  Western Digital Corp.




    Italian & Spanish bonds rose. The 2-year notes headed for a record week on optimism European fincial leaders will agree on measures to pave the way for crisis- fighting assistance from the ECB.  Italian bonds advanced for a 3rd day on indications that the ECB may channel bailout loans via the IMF.  Spanish debt climbed for a 5th session after French President Sarkosy said the euro area must converge economically & German Chancellor Merketl said the bloc needs a fiscal union.  Italys' 2-year yield fell 33 basis points to 5.99%.  The rate has dropped from 7.66% last week, the biggest weekly decline in 18 years (of course it started form an unusually high rate).  Spanish 2-year yields dropped 39 basis points to 4.39%, having tumbled 170 basis points this week.  But volatility on Spanish debt remains extremely high.  While this sounds good, for the time being it is just talk.

    Italian, Spanish Notes Gain on Aid Optimism; Head for Record Weekly Gain


    Stocks are having another good day which should wrap up the best week in more than 2 years.  The unemployment report was encouraging, but fundamental problems have not been solved.  The present rate is still far above the 8% upper limited which was talked about & the reason that the stimulus bill had to be passed in a rush.  Short term pressure on European debts has eased, but the affected countries will need a lot of help.  The US economy is OK, although that not great at this stage of a recovery.  An extension of reduced Social Security tax for wage earners was turned down.  If that ends in 4 weeks, wage earners were be receiving pay cuts in their first Jan pay checks.  Bulls are happy with an outlook of "Why worry?"

    Dow Jones Industrial Average








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    Thursday, December 1, 2011

    Lower markets digest recent gains

    Dow dropped 25, decliners over advancers 4-3 & NAZ  gained 5.  Bank stocks were weaker, taking the Financial Index down 1½ to 170.

    The MLP index rose 5 to the 373s while the REIT index fell 2+ to 220.  Junk bond funds were a tad lower & Treasuries sold off, bringing higher yields.  Oil declined after more Americans filed applications for unemployment benefits & as European & Chinese manufacturing weakened last month.  Gold marked time in all the confusion coming from European sovereign debts.

    AMZ   Alerian MLP Index



    DJR    Dow Jones Equity REIT Index




    Click below for the latest market update:


    Treasur yields:


    U.S. 3-month

    -0.005%

    U.S. 2-year

    0.258%

    U.S. 10-year

    2.110%

    LF12.NYM...Crude Oil Jan 12...100.09 ...Down 0.27  (0.3%)

    Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]



    A report form the UN on the World Economic Situation & Prospects 2012  forecasts 2.6% growth next year in its main, relatively optimistic scenario, & just 0.5% growth in its pessimistic scenario.  That's significantly below the May forecast that the global economy would grow 3.6% in 2012.  Following 2 years of anemic & uneven recovery from the global financial crisis, the report said, "the world economy is teetering on the brink of another major downturn" & "the risks for a double-dip recession have heightened."  Not good!

    UN warns of possible new recession AP


    German Chancellor Angela Merkel

    Photo:   Bloomberg

    German Chancellor Merkel is willing to snub investor pleas to back an expanded ECB role in solving the debt crisis, as she pushes her demand for tighter economic ties in Europe as the only way forward, repeating her push to rework EU rules to lock in budget monitoring & enforcement, & seal off the ECB from political pressure.  That risks a showdown with fellow EU leaders & extends her conflict with financial markets looking for immediate measures to end the contagion.  Underscoring the focus on debt cutting, Germany will propose that each euro country set up a national debt-reduction fund as one way to boost market confidence.  Each country could pay into the fund every year until its debt level returns to the euro-area limit of 60% of GDP.   Merkel’s drive to pursue economic & political convergence may still not be the final word.  “You can’t put the cart before the horse,” she said last week.  Debt mess drones on.

    Merkel Shuns ECB Role in Favor of Budget Limits


    • <p>               FILE - In this Nov. 25, 2011 file photo, Rhonda Cochran, left, and Tiffany Strickland load bags of Black Friday deals into a car at Bel Air Mall in Mobile, Ala. Retailers are reporting strong sales gains in November, boosted by a discount-fueled spending binge for the start of the holiday shopping season last weekend. Now, the challenge is to keep shoppers spending throughout the most important selling period of the year. (AP Photo/Mobile Press-Register, Mike Kittrell) MAGS OUT; NO SALES
    Photo:   Yahoo

    Shoppers, taking advantage of big discounts & earlier store hours at the start of the holiday shopping season last weekend, helped boost retailers' revenue for Nov.  Retailers reported monthly revenue at stores open at least a year that beat estimates.  The overall total for the 21 retailers rose 3.2%, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.  Nov results were boosted by the 4-day weekend start on Thanksgiving Day.  Americans spent $52.4B  over the weekend, the highest total ever recorded according to the National Retail Federation.  While the figures point to a solid start to the shopping season, they represent only a small slice of the industry.  Dollar stores, home-improvement chains & consumer electronics stores don't report monthly revenue.  Still, retailers can glean a lot from the numbers, well-heeled shoppers continue to be resilient in the weak economy.

    Retailers report strong sales for November AP


    All is not well at retail.  42% of Americans & 49% of parents  plan to spend less this holiday season than last year.  Bankrate's Nov Financial Security Index found that just 10% of Americans plan to spend more this year than they did in 2010.  "While consumers indicate a reluctance to spend more this holiday season, there is a notorious disconnect between how consumers feel and how consumers act, particularly regarding spending," said Greg McBride, senior financial analyst for Bankrate.  Princeton Survey Research Associates conducted the telephone survey of 1005 adults in early Nov & the index fell to its 2nd-lowest level of the year, as feelings of job security hit a new low.  Just 13% of Americans feel more secure in their jobs now than they did one year ago, which helped drag down the overall index to 92.5, just above the 2011 low of 92.3 recorded in Aug.  (below 100 indicates decreasing levels of financial security compared with 12 months earlier).  The success of holiday retail sales continues to be iffy.



    The lack of follow thru by the markets indicates that enthusiasm got out of hand yesterday.  European banks did not participate in the global rally & US banks pulled back today (selling near 2 year lows).  Next week, important speeches will be made in Europe about solving the debt problems which are not going away anytime soon, no matter what reserve banks do.  Tomorrow will begin with the Nov jobs report which is expected to show 125K jobs were created.  This will be a more of the same kind of report.

    Dow Jones Industrial Average





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    Markets waver on profit taking

    Dow fell 34, decliners modestly ahead of advancers & NAZ slipped 1.  Bank stocks sold off after gains yesterday.  The Financial Index dropped 2 to 170, still fairly close to the yearly lows around 151.

    The MLP index was up 1+ to just over 370, but REIT index fell 1+ to the 221s.  Junk bond funds were mixed to lower & Treasuries sold off again.  An intersting note is the 90 day bill has a slightly negative yield, an inidcation there is a lot of worried money out there.  Oil increased for a 5th day after a report showed manufacturing rose more than expected last month.  Gold was even & has had a nice move up this week.

    AMZ   Alerian MLP Index



    DJR   Dow Jones Equity REIT Index



    Treasury yields:


    U.S. 3-month

    -0.005%

    U.S. 2-year

    0.260%

    U.S. 10-year

    2.127%

    CLF12.NYM...Crude Oil Jan 12...100.98 ...Up 0.62  (0.6%)

    GCZ11.CMX...Gold Dec 11......1,750.00 ...Up 4.50  (0.3%)

    Get the latest market update below:



    Job Seekers

    Photo:   Bloomberg

    The number applying for unemployment benefits rose for the 2nd straight week, a sign the hiring market is recovering at a slow & uneven pace.  Weekly applications for benefits rose 6K to 402K according to the Labor Dept.  Applications had been below 400K for 3 straight weeks.  The 4-week average was mostly unchanged at just below 400K.  The average fell to a 7-month low 2 weeks ago after applications had been declining for 2 months.  The number receiving benefits rose 35K to 3.74M. But that doesn't include several million more who are receiving extended benefits under an emergency program put in place during the recession.  All told, 7M received benefits in the latest week.  This is another sign the economy is not healing well.



    Manufacturing in U.S.

    Photo:   Bloomberg

    US manufacturing probably grew in Nov at the fastest pace in 5 months, suggesting factories will keep supporting the economic expansion through the end of the year.  The Institute for Supply Management's factory index rose to 51.8 from 50.8 in Oct based on forecast.  Fifty is the dividing line between growth & contraction.  Corp investment on new equipment, export demand, stronger consumer purchases during the holidays & leaner inventories lay the groundwork for a pickup in production.  However, the risk of recession in Europe may restrain manufacturing.  The news is not so good around the world.  In China & Europe, manufacturing contracted last month.  A purchasing managers’ index compiled by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing slid to 49 in Nov, the weakest since Feb 2009.  Separate reports showed slowing retail sales & an industrial slump in Australia, which relies on China as its biggest export customer.

    Manufacturing in U.S. Probably Expanded at the Fastest Pace in Five Months


    Target, a Dividend Aristocrat, said same store sales rose only 1.8% in Nov, short of estimates as the busy shopping weekend after Thanksgiving failed to give a big lift to revenue.  Analysts expected a 2.8% gain.  Sales were strongest on the day after Thanksgiving, known as "Black Friday" when the chain opened at midnight.  Total sales for the 4 weeks ended Nov 26 rose 3% to $6.19B. Food & beauty products were strong sellers but toy & movies declined.  The results are a sign consumers are still cautiously spending heading into the holiday shopping period.  TGT expects Dec revenue in stores open at least one year to rise in the low- to mid-single digits.  The stock was up 30¢ in what has been a sluggish year.

    Target Sales Miss Expectations

    TGT    Target Corp.




    Following yesterday's enormous gains, everybody needs to take a breather.  The big gains should indicate that the debt messes will be fixed by the actions of the reserve banks.  However, life is more complicated.  European banks still have huge problems with their loan portfolios as do the big US banks.  Including yesterday, Dow managed a gain of 90 in Nov after a stellar Oct.  Dec should be interesting.

    Dow Jones Industrial Average











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