Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Higher markets in pre-holiday trading

Dow was up 39, advancers ahead of decliners 3-1 & NAZ gained 13 (helped by another pop of 6 for Apple).  The Financial Index rose a fraction to the 199s, an 8 week high. 

After its recent rise, the MLP index pulled back a fraction in the 381s & the REIT index rose almost 2 to the 266s (a new yearly high).  Junk bond funds were higher & Treasuries declined.  Oil rose on speculation sanctions against Iran will curb supply & amid signs that central banks may ease monetary policy to spur economic growth.  Gold climbed to the highest price in almost 2 weeks, also on speculation that central banks will take more action to spur growth, boosting demand for the metal as an inflation hedge.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.081%

U.S. 2-year

0.297%

U.S. 10-year

1.609%

CLQ12.NYM....Crude Oil Aug 12...86.95 .....Up 3.20  (3.8%)

GCN12.CMX....Gold Jul 12.......1,610.80 ...Up 13.60  (0.9%)



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Orders to U.S. Factories Increase

Photo:   Bloomberg

US factory received 0.7% more orders in May following 2 months of declines.  The 0.7% increase in bookings followed a revised 0.7% drop in the prior month according to the Commerce Dept (ahead of the  0.1% forecast).  The debt crisis in Europe & a slowdown in Asian markets including China is restraining exports, weighing on the outlook for manufacturers.  Business investment, a mainstay of growth, will provide less of a boost to the economy as a weakening labor market holds back American consumers from boosting purchases of vehicles and other goods.  Excluding transportation equipment, factory orders increased 0.4% after falling 0.9% in the prior month.  Bookings for durable goods climbed 1.3%, also the first gain in 3 months.  Orders for capital goods excluding aircraft & military equipment, a measure of future business investment, advanced 2.1%, more than the 1.6% gain estimated last week, after falling 1.5% in the prior month.  Shipments of those goods, used in calculating GDP, increased 0.6%, more than previously projected, after dropping 1.5% in Apr.



Greece's new gov will present "alarming" data on its recession & unemployment to intl debt inspectors this week, in a bid to renegotiate the terms of its bailout agreements.  A gov spokesman said that the data would demonstrate that the current austerity program was counterproductive.  Swell!!  Greece is relying on rescue loans from the eurozone & IMF to avoid bankruptcy.  In exchange, it has made painful austerity cuts, such as tax hikes & cuts to public sector jobs, pensions & salaries.  Along with uncertainty over the country's finances, those austerity measures have hit the economy hard.  It's in a 5th year of recession, with unemployment topping 22% (roughly double the eurozone average).  The gov will argue that it cannot withstand the current pace of austerity terms.  Debt inspectors are due in Athens tomorrow. "We will present information that is astounding. It is alarming in terms of the recession and unemployment, and it shows beyond any doubt that the current policy does not bring results. It brings the opposite results," the gov spokesman said.  He added, "The economy is in turmoil and the situation has reached an untenable point."  The Prime Minister has promised to seek more time to meet the deficit reduction targets.  Rescue creditors have so far appeared cool to the idea of extending Greece's deficit reduction deadlines.  The situation still looks bad.

Greece to present debt inspectors 'alarming' data AP


The IMF said the US economy will grow 2% this year & about 2¼% in 2013 amid a “tepid” recovery & the European debt crisis, lowering its previous projections.  The US economy remains “subject to elevated downside risks, in light of financial strains in the euro area and uncertainty over domestic fiscal plans,” the IMF said.  In an Apr report, the IMF forecast US growth of 2.1% this year & 2.4% in 2013.  The economy expanded at a 1.9% pace in Q1, the same as previously estimated, & slower than the 3% pace in Q4.  To combat flagging growth, the Federal Reserve (FED) said it is ready to take more steps should the US expansion slacken.  FED officials said 2 weeks ago that it expects “economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up very gradually.”  Manufacturing unexpectedly shrank in Jun for the first time since the economy emerged from the recession 3 years ago, indicating a mainstay of the expansion may be faltering. 



Volume is sluggish in the shortened trading session.  Little should happen, but tomorrow will be a working day in Europe which is always capable of bringing fireworks with the European debt mess lurking in the background.

Dow Jones Industrials


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Monday, July 2, 2012

Markets edge higher as manufacturing shrinks

Dow dropped only 8, advancers ahead of decliner 2-1 & NAZ was up 16, largely on strength in Apple (AAPL) stock. The Financial Index rose 1 to the 198s (a 7 week high).

The MLP index rose another 4+ to the 381s & the REIT index was up 2 to the 264s (just below its yealry highs).  Junk bond funds were higher while yields on Treasury 10 & 30-year debt declined the most in a month after a report showed US manufacturing unexpectedly contracted in Jun, spurring concern the economic recovery is floundering.  Oil & gold fell in today's markets.

AMJ (Aleiran MLP Index tracking fund)


stock chart


Click below for the latest market update:



Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.071%

U.S. 2-year

0.293%

U.S. 10-year

1.578%

CLQ12.NYMCrude Oil Aug 1283.79 Down 1.17 (1.4%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Intel Planning Booming Touch Screen Demand for New Laptops

Photo:   Bloomberg

With demand for tablets & smartphones surging, Intel (a Dow stock) is betting that supplies of touchscreens will start to run short just as PC makers begin to introduce touch-enabled laptops & other devices.  To nsure that PC manufacturers don’t get squeezed out, the chipmaker last month said it had agreed to pay 4 Taiwanese touch-screen makers to secure supplies of the parts.  The deals reflect the difficulty of getting key components as the tablet market is poised to jump 48% to $66B in 2012, according to researcher DisplaySearch.  From 2011-2016, the market for tablets will grow an average of 42% annually, versus 9% average growth for notebooks, IHS predicts.  In 2015, tablets, with some 314M shipments, will overtake laptops.  The smartphone market will average 22% growth to reach 1.27B units in 2016. Its stock was even.

Intel Planning Booming Touch Screen Demand for New Laptops: Tech

Intel (INTC)


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Johnson & Johnson, a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, is seeking US approval for the first new type of medicine to fight deadly tuberculosis in more than 4 decades.  The experimental drug, called bedaquiline, also would be the first medicine specifically for treating multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis.  That's an increasingly common form in which at least 2 of the 4 primary TB drugs don't work.  Tuberculosis is the world's #2 killer of adults among infectious diseases.  J&J's Janssen Research & Development created the drug, which was tested in several hundred patients. The company this fall is to begin late-stage testing that will compare bedaquiline to dummy pills over 9 months in about 600 patients.  That study is aimed at seeing whether treatment for resistant tuberculosis can be reduced to nine months from the current 18-24 months recommended by the World Health Organization.  Roughly 1/3 of the world's population is estimated to be infected with the bacteria causing tuberculosis.  It remains latent in most people for many years but can be activated by another infection or serious health problem.  TB is rare in the US but kills about 1.4M a year worldwide, with about 150K of those succumbing to the increasingly common multidrug-resistant forms.  Hopefully this drug will prove successful.  JNJ rose 44¢.

J&J seeks OK for first drug against resistant TB AP

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  • <p>               Officials attend ceremonies announcing that Airbus will establish its first assembly plant in the United States in Mobile, Ala., Monday, July 2, 2012. From left: Barry Eccleston, Airbus President & CEO Fabrice Bregier, Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley and Mobile, Ala. Mayor Sam Jones. The French-based company said the Alabama plant is expected to cost $600 million to build and will employ 1,000 people when it reaches full production, likely to be four planes a month by 2017. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)
Photo:   Yahoo

In the battle to dominate the global aviation industry, European aerospace giant Airbus announced its first assembly plant in the US, a significant step in the competition with archrival Boeing (a Dow stock).  The French-based company said the plant is expected to cost $600M to build & will employ 1K when it reaches full production, likely to be 4 planes a month by 2017.  "We are going to create great jobs and generate growth right here," Airbus CEO Fabrice Bregier said.  "We know in aerospace, when we create one job, there are about four related jobs so we could bring as many as 5,000," Bregier said later.  "The management to the blue collars will be 100 percent American."  BA already has a big presence in Alabama, employing 2.7K in defense & rocket operations.  Airbus planned to build refueling tankers for the US Air Force in Alabama, but its parent company, the European Aeronautic Defense & Space lost the contract to BA in 2011.  The Airbus plant advances the company's strategy of expanding production outside its home base. The company, jointly run by French & German management & with plants in several European countries, wants to expand in China & India as well as the US.  BA fell 1.12.

Airbus to Build Planes in Alabama, Challenging Boeing

Boeing (BA)

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Today was unusual.  Economic data was not encouraging, but stocks rose after a strong finish last week.  Forecasts for Q2 & later are being revised lower.  Cyprus is is trying to figure out how much to ask for in its bailout.  Tomorrow, Jun auto sales will be reported & they will probably be only so-so.  But Dow keeps plodding along with an upward bias. 

Dow Jones Industrials


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Markets fade on weak economic data

Dow fell 51, decliners 5-4 ahead of advancers & NAZ inched up 1 (helped by a 7+ gain at Apple (AAPL)).  The Financial Index was down a fraction to under 197.

The MLP index rose 1+ to 369 but the REIT index fell a fraction in the 261s (close to its yearly highs).  Junk bond funds were mixed to higher & Treasuries rose as stocks pulled back.  Oil fell after the biggest rally in 3 years on concern economic weakness in the US, Europe & China may reduce demand.  Gold is also giving up gains made on Fri.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.086%

U.S. 2-year

0.301%

U.S. 10-year

1.585%

CLQ12.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 12...83.65 .....Down 1.31  (1.5%)

GCN12.CMX...Gold Jul 12........1,590.70 ...Down 12.80  (0.8%)



Get the latest daily market update below:



Chinese manufacturing activity deteriorated at a faster clip in Jun than a month earlier, as new-order bookings & employment declined further.  The final reading of HSBC’s China manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index dropped to 48.2 from 48.4 in May, indicating that business conditions worsened at Chinese factories, slightly better than HSBC’s preliminary reading of 48.1 but remained below the 50-point level for an 8th month in a row.  “It is all about growth and employment. As external demand has weakened and domestic demand hasn’t shown a meaningful improvement in response to earlier easing measures, growth is likely to be on track for further slowdown, hence weighing on the jobs market,” said Hongbin Qu, chief China economist at HSBC.  HSBC’s release followed a separate, official version of the manufacturing survey, released yesterday, which put China’s Jun PMI at 50.2, also weaker than an official reading of 50.4 in May.  HSBC said lack of demand was behind the latest drop in the monthly PMI, as new order bookings fell at an accelerated rate.  New export orders dropped at the steepest rates in over 3 years on weak demand from both North America & Europe.  This is a very bad sign of global economic health.

China’s Manufacturing Growth Weakens as New Orders Drop


US manufacturing shrank in Jun for the first time in nearly 2 years, a troubling sign that the economy is faltering.  The Institute for Supply Management said that its index of manufacturing activity fell to 49.7, down from 53.5 in May & the lowest reading since Jul 2009, one month after the recession officially ended.  Readings below 50 indicate contraction.  A measure of new manufacturing orders fell below 50 for the first since Apr 2009 & a gauge of production also fell to its lowest level in more than 2 years.  Factories are also reporting much less overseas demand, likely because Europe's financial crisis has lowered demand for US exports.  A measure of exports dropped to 47.5, its lowest level since Apr 2009.  A gauge of employment edged down but remained at a healthy level of 56.6, suggesting factories may still be adding jobs.  Manufacturers have reported job gains for 8 straight months.  Factories have been a key source of jobs & growth since the recession, but the sector has shown signs of weakness in recent months.  The economic recovery is stalling. 

ISM Index of U.S. Manufacturing Decreased to 49.7 in June


A man wipes logo of Dell IT firm at CeBIT exhibition centre in Hannover

Photo:   Yahoo

Dell will buy Quest Software for about $2.4B ($28 a share), ending speculation about who was the unnamed bidder.  With consumer demand for PCs declining, DELL wants to branch out beyond the business of making personal computers into more lucrative fields.  Helped by a recent string of acquisitions of software companies,  DELL is trying to grow into advising corps & govs on how to manage technology needs & sell them more software & computing equipment.  This will make it more competitive in the server, storage, networking & computing services business.  QSFT had agreed to be bought by Insight for $23 per share ($2B) in Mar, followed by a series of increasing bids from Insight & another bidder followed.  The deal is expected to close in  a few months.  Both stocks slipped a few pennies.

Dell Agrees to Buy Quest for $2.4 Billion Adding Software

Dell (DELL)


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Quest (QSFT)


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Markets had a chance to digest the bailout news from Europe & stock buyers are having 2nd thoughts.  At best, the European debt mess remains in flux & nobody really knows where it is going.  Greece was put on a back-burner for a couple of days, but it is getting more attention now.  There has also been a lot of talk about short covering on Fri, accounting for some of the big gains.  Meanwhile macro economic data around the world is not looking good.  Fri is the big jobs report in the US & expectations are for a meager 90K jobs added.  Sluggish US economic growth indicates that the unemployment rate will continue at unacceptable levels for the rest of the year.

Dow Jones Industrials


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