Thursday, July 5, 2012

Lower markets on sluggish retail sales

Dow dropped 47 (weakening in the last hour), decliners ahead of advancers 5-4 & NAZ was even helped by a big rise at Apple (see below).  The Financial Index fell 3 to the 196s.  The MLP index was about even in the 382s & the REIT index pulled back 1+ to the 264s from yesterday's yearly highs.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries rose.  Oil & gold fell, along with the stock market.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

stock chart



Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.071%

U.S. 2-year

0.286%

U.S. 10-year

1.592%

CLQ12.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 12...87.35 .....Down 0.31  (0.4%)

GCN12.CMX...Gold Jul 12.......1,600.30 ...Down 21.00  (1.3%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




China Cuts Benchmark Interest Rates for Second Time in Month

Photo:   Bloomberg

China cut its benchmark interest rates for the 2nd time in a month & allowed banks to offer bigger discounts on their borrowing costs, stepping up efforts to reverse a slowdown in the world’s 2nd-biggest economy.  The one-year lending rate will fall 31 basis points & the one-year deposit rate will drop by 25 basis points effective tomorrow, announced by the People’s Bank of China.  The discount banks can offer on loans was widened to 30% from 20%.  China is moving more aggressively to promote growth as Europe's turmoil crimps exports & domestic property restrictions curb the housing market.  Today’s cuts coincided with decisions by the ECB & Bank of England (BOE) to increase monetary stimulus & preceded gove data next week that may show expansion decelerated for a 6th qtr.  China announced the move at the same time as the BOE raised its asset-purchase target by £50B ($78B) to £375B, restarting its expansion of stimulus.  Then the ECB cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 0.75% & lowered its deposit rate to zero from 0.25%.  The idea is that these moves were coordinated.  However, with rates near zero, rate cuts may not have much effect.

China Cuts Benchmark Rates for Second Time in Month


Apple suppliers in Asia are preparing for mass production in Sep of a tablet computer with a smaller screen than the iPad (likely to be smaller than 8"). The current iPad's screen measures 9.7", unchanged since the first model was released 2 year ago.  Suppliers said that AAPL has told them to prepare for mass production of the smaller tablet.  The screen makers include LG Display of South Korea & Taiwan-based AU Optronics.  A smaller tablet could help AAPL company maintain its dominance in a market that keeps getting more crowded.  Competitors include Samsung Electronics & Amazon.com (AMZN).  In addition, Microsoft (MSFT), Dow stock, & Google (GOOG) recently unveiled tablets.  Last year, the iPad held a 62% share of the world-wide market, according to market-research firm IHS iSuppli, which expects overall tablet sales this year to surge 85% to 127M units.  As the market continues to expand, consumers' choices, in size, technical specifications & price, are growing more varied.  Last week, GOOG started taking orders for the Nexus 7, a tablet device with a 7" screen that will sell for $199.  That matches the price of AMZN Kindle Fire, which came out last year & also has a 7" screen.  AAPL rose $10.53.

Apple Said to Plan Smaller IPad to Vie With Google Nexus

Apple (AAPL)


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Target Corp.

Photo:   Bloomberg

US retailers' same-store sales in Jun nearly matched estimates, with luxury chains such as Saks (SKS) & discounters like TJX (TJX) topping expectations while stores targeting middle-income consumers trailing projections.  Same-store sales at the more than 20 companies tracked by Retail Metrics rose 0.3%, compared with the 1% average estimate, follow a 7.2% increase last year.  Consumers may have been spooked by the unemployment rate staying above 8%, sending many to discount chains such as TJX, which posted a 7% sales gain.  At the same time, luxury consumers have continued to spend with the stock market still up for the year.  TJX, which owns discount stores TJ Maxx & Marshalls, beat estimates for a 3.7% sales increase.  The company said EPS this year may be as much as $2.39, up from a previous forecast for a maximum of $2.37. Same-store sales at Limited Brands (LTD), the parent company of Victoria’s Secret, gained 7% beating the average estimate of 2.6% & sales at SKS rose 6%, topping the 4.2% estimate.  But sales at Target (TGT & a Dividend Aristocrat) rose 2.1%, falling short of the 2.8% forecasted gain, & Macy's (M), the 2nd-biggest department-store chain, posted a modest 1.2% increase, missing the 2.3% estimate.  Macy’s said in a statement that the “stagnant” economy & reduced spending from tourists hurt sales.

Retailers’ June U.S. Sales Little Changed While Luxury, Discounters Gain


Markets were nervous awaiting the big jobs number tomorrow.  Expectations are for about 90-95K new jobs to be added, far below the 200K+ numbers that were common in Q1.  The rate cuts in Europe & Asia (plus another one in Kenya) may not have much effect on stimulating economies.  Bulls are hoping for a pleasant surprise in the jobs number, but recent signals are not encouraging (i.e. jobless claims data).  But Dow is hanging in there, very near the highs since mid May.  Aloca (AA), a Dow stock, on Mon will be the first to report earnings.  Analysts are looking for a meager 6¢, down from 32¢ last year.

Dow Jones Industrials


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Markets drift lower on weaker economic data

Dow fell 36, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ was up 1 from a rise of 9 at Apple (AAPL).  The Financial Index fell 2+ to the 196s. 

The MLP index fell 1+ to the 381s (after a pop of more than 20 in the last week) & the REIT index was down 1+ off its yearly highs to the 264s.  Junk bond funds were mixed to lower & Treasuries rose.  Crude dropped after the dollar rose against the € as ECB President Draghi said economic risks remain after the bank cut rates to a record low.  Gold fell as the dollar strengthened the most since Mar 9 after the ECB cut interest rates to a record low.  

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

Treasury yield:

U.S. 3-month

0.071%

U.S. 2-year

0.290%

U.S. 10-year

1.600%

CLQ12.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 12...87.15 ....Down 0.51  (0.6%)

GCN12.CMX...Gold Jul 12.......1,600.30 ...Down 21.00  (1.3%)



Get the latest daily market update below:



  • Job seekers speak with with job recruiters while they attend the Coast to Coast job fair in New York, May 7, 2012. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz
Photo:   Yahoo

Claims for unemployment insurance payments last week were below forecast, easing concern that the labor market was deteriorating.  Applications for benefits decreased 14K last week to 374K, the fewest since mid May, according to the Labor Dept.  The forecast was for 385K claims.  While auto-plant shutdowns to retool for the new model year often play havoc with the claims data around this time of year, there was no indication that influenced last week’s claims.  The Labor Dept projected a 3% increase in un- adjusted claims last week (about 11.3K).  Instead, there was a 0.8% decrease.  The agency projects an almost 30% jump this week as a result of the shutdowns.  The 4-week moving average fell to 385K last week from 387K.  The number continuing to collect jobless benefits climbed 4K to 3.31M.  The continuing claims figure does not include the number of workers receiving extended benefits under federal programs.  Those who’ve used up their traditional benefits & are now collecting emergency & extended payments decreased by about 29K to 2.68M.

Fewer Americans Than Forecast File Unemployment Claims


ECB Cuts Benchmark Rate to Record Low of 0.75%, Deposit to Zero

Photo:   Bloomberg

The ECB cut its key interest rate by a quarter percentage point to a record low of 0.75%.  The move followed a rate cut by China's central bank & new stimulus measures by the Bank of England.  The ECB cut in the refinancing rate is aimed at giving a further boost to the sagging European economy after a summit last week where leaders agreed on new steps to strengthen the € currency.  The refinancing rate cut could mean lower borrowing costs for banks, businesses and consumers.  But some say it may have only a symbolic effect, since rates are already very low.  Lending activity remains weak because there's little demand from businesses for credit.  The ECB also cut its overnight deposit rate, what it charges banks for depositing their money with the ECB overnight, to zero which is meant to encourage banks to invest their money in the economy rather than stash it with the ECB.

ECB Cuts Main Rate to Record Low, Deposit Rate to Zero


US service companies grew in Jun at the slowest pace in nearly 2½ years, a troubling sign for the economy.  But those same firms boosted hiring last month, adding to other data that show job growth may have picked up.  The Institute for Supply Management said that its index of non-manufacturing activity fell to 52.1 last month from a May reading of 53.7.  The reading was the lowest since Jan 2010.  Still, any reading above 50 indicates expansion.  The sector had grown now for 30 straight months.  But a measure of employment showed that service firms added more workers last month as the employment index rose to 52.3, up from 50.8 in May.  A separate survey by the ISM said manufacturing shrank in Jun for the first time since Jul 2009, which was one month after the recession ended.  Production & exports declined, & the number of new orders plunged in Jun.

ISM Services Index in U.S. Fell to 52.1 in June From 53.7


The ECB rate cut & better data on jobless claims should have brought more buyers into the markets.  But retail sales in Jun are coming in soggy & other data is not inspiring.  Even MLPs which had been red hot for a week have cooled off.  The looming jobs for Jun coming tomorrow is making investors nervous.  Then comes earnings season & numerous forecast are being lowered.  Dow is absorbing all this fairly well, hanging in near its best levels since since mid May.

Dow Jones Industrials

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Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Markets rise on higher factory orders

Dow climbed 72, advancers over decliners almost 4-1 & NAZ was up 24.  The Financial Index gained 1 to the 199s.  The MLP index was up a fraction to 383 & the REIT index rose 1+ to 266, a new yearly high.  Junk bond funds were higher & Treasuries declined while stocks advanced.  Oil & gold had a good day on hopes for more stimulus by central banks.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


stock chart



Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.081%

U.S. 2-year

0.301%

U.S. 10-year

1.629%

CLQ12.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 12...87.34 ....Up 3.59  (4.3%)

GCN12.CMX...Gold Jul 12.......1,619.00 ...Up 21.80  (1.4%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Chrysler U.S. Sales Beat Estimates

Photo:   Bloomberg

The big 3  (remember that term?) reported US auto sales for Jun that topped estimates, helping the industry stay on pace for the best year since 2007.  Auto sales may have accelerated to faster than a 14M annualized rate, topping the 13.8M light-vehicle pace that was the average estimate of analysts.  The sales provide a bright spot in the US economy that has been hindered by persistent unemployment & weakening consumer confidence.   General Motors (GM) sales climbed 16%, beating the 7.6% increase forecasted.  Deliveries rose 20% at Chrysler & 7.1% for Ford (F), topping estimates for gains of 18% & 3.5% respectively.  Nissan sales rose 28%, exceeding the 21% estimate.  The auto industry has zoomed back since 2009 when GM & Chrysler restructured in gov-backed bankruptcies, threatening the viability of suppliers & thousands of jobs.  Light-vehicle sales this year may reach 14.3M, which would be 38% more than 10.4M in 2009.  Toyota (TM) & Honda led the industry with sales gains of 60% & 49% respectively.  The auto makers had another good month, but some are cautious about H2.

GM, Chrysler Sees June U.S. Auto Sales Beating Estimates


The ECB is expected to cut interest rates to a record low on Thurs, but may need to do more to satisfy financial markets already starting to wonder about the solidity of last week's summit measures.  Steady inflation & a dire batch of economic performance indicators, including signs of weakness in euro zone powerhouse Germany, give the ECB cover to back up the EU summit deal with a quarter-point cut in its benchmark rate to 0.75%.  The ECB has never cut its main refinancing rate below 1% but policymakers say there is nothing to stop them doing so & they may want to bolster euro zone leaders.  At the summit, ECB President Draghi declared his satisfaction with the agreement to speed up cross-border banking supervision & to allow the euro zone rescue fund to recapitalize banks directly thereafter.  Even with political backing, there are questions over the rescue fund's capacity to lower borrowing costs.  It has a maximum €500B capacity with €100B already earmarked for Spanish banks, a sum which could quickly dwindle.  Those limitations put a spotlight back on the ECB's readiness to take 'non-standard' measures - such as reactivating its own bond-buy program or offering banks fresh liquidity.  When we're in a make it up as we go along period, forecasting the future becomes tricky.

ECB expected to cut, may take more to sustain markets


Volume was low on the shortened trading session.  Hopes are running high the the ECB will throw gasoline on the meager fire of growth to reignite the stock markets.  But a rate cut is already baked into the markets, which could mute its effects on Thurs. 

Dow Jones Industrials


stock chart

Happy July  4 to ALL!!!








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