Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Markets surge on European debt hopes

Dow shot up 263, advancers ahead of decliners 9-1 & NAZ gained 56.  Bank stocks were leading the way again with the Financial Index up almost 20 off its lows last week.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value 169.21 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change    4.79    (2.9%)

The MLP index surged an amazing 8 to over 350 & the REIT index jumped almost 4 to the 213s. Junk bond funds were up 1-2% while Treasuries dropped, extending the advance of 10-year note yields from a record low 1¾%, as speculation Europe’s leaders are moving toward agreement on measures to counter the region’s debt crisis.  Oil rose a 2nd day on speculation the European debt crisis will lessen.  Gold gained for the first time in 5 days as the biggest 3-day drop in 28 years spurred some investors to buy the metal on concern about economic growth & debt crises.

ALERIAN MLP Index (^AMZ)



DJ REIT INDEXDJR (^DJR)



Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.005%

U.S. 2-year

0.243%

U.S. 10-year

1.994%

CLX11.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 11...83.34 .....Up 3.10  (3.9%)

GCU11.CMX...Gold Sep 11......1,654.90 ...Up 62.40  (3.9%)


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Greece will receive its next batch of bailout loans in time to avoid a disastrous default according to the finance minister.  Reports that European leaders are considering bolder moves to relieve Greece & other countries of their debt burden have buoyed financial markets, though officials in Chancellor Angela Merkel's gov downplayed such speculation ahead of her meeting later with Greek Prime Minister Papandreou.  The current plan is to have Greece implement painful debt-reduction measures in exchange for rescue loans.  European leaders have agreed on a 2nd €109B bailout, although some details of that remain to be worked out.  The next bailout installment is being withheld until a review of the reforms is completed in the coming days.  Without the money, Greece faces bankruptcy in mid-Oct.  "The decision will be made in October," Greek finance minister Evangelos Venizelos said. "The disbursement will be decided in time, in line with the course of our funding needs."  Speaking above the sound of chanting from protesting ministry employees & tax office workers outside his department,  Venizelos said the country had made great efforts to achieve its fiscal targets, but that a "hyper-effort" was necessary to fully meet its commitments.  Some experts, however, say the current course of austerity is untenable & that Greece will need bigger debt relief.  There is growing speculation in the markets that Greece's creditors will look to impose bigger losses on private bondholders as well as recapitalizing Europe's banks & boosting the size of the eurozone's rescue fund.  This still is only a "work in progress."  More work is needed.



U.S. Consumer Confidence Rose Less Than Forecast

Photo:   Bloomberg

Consumers' confidence in the economy remained weak in Sep after dropping to a post-recession low in Aug as Americans continue to worry about high unemployment & low wages.  The Conference Board said that its Consumer Confidence Index was at 45.4, up slightly from a revised 45.2 in Aug but below the expected reading of 46.  The Aug reading, which was the lowest since Apr 2009 & almost 15 points below the July reading of 59.2  A reading above 90 indicates the economy is on solid footing.  The data showed a measure of present conditions declined to 32.5, the lowest since Janu, from 34.3. The measure of expectations for the next 6 months rose to 54, from 52.4. The share of consumers who said jobs are currently hard to get increased to 50, the highest level since May 1983, from 48.5 in Aug. That may signal a worsening of the Sep employment data. Today’s report is in line with other figures.  The Thomson Reuters/University of preliminary index of consumer sentiment rose this month.  As before, all is not well in the economy.

Consumer Confidence Rose Less Than Forecast


Walgreen Profit Rises 69%, Helped by Demand for Prescription


Photo:   Bloomberg

Walgreen, a Dividend Ariistocrat, Q4 earnings jumped 69%, boosted in part by a gain from the $525M sale of its pharmacy benefits management business to Catalyst Health Solutions (CHSI).  That deal was completed in Jun & WAG recorded an after-tax gain of 30¢.  WAG also was helped by sales growth at stores open at least a year, as it earned 87¢, in the qtr that ended Aug 31, sharply ahead of 49¢ last year.  Adjusted earnings, which exclude the sale gain, were 57¢, topping expectations of 55¢.  Revenue climbed more than 6% to $17.96B.  Sales at stores open at least a year rose 4.4%.  WAG is the largest drugstore chain in the US with more than 7700 stores.  For the full fiscal year, the company had EPS of $2.94 on $72.18B in revenue.  WAG said when reporting Q3 results that it was ending a relationship worth $5.3B per year with Express Scripts (ESRX) because it was not paying it enough money to fill prescriptions. WAG dropped $1.27 & has been weak in the last 3 months.

Walgreen Co. (WAG)


stock chart


Dow is up 535 in 2 days.  Markets had been oversold, but this is an unusually strong rebound which may be getting ahead of itself.  Buyers are assuming that European debt problems are all but fixed & are unconcerned with US financial problems.  The US economy is still sputtering & the new fiscal year for the gov starts on Sat with no budget at a time when there is emphasis on reducing the whopper sized deficits.  The VIX, volatility index, is down 3+ to below 36.  That's an improvement from 40+ last week but remains far above the teens where it has been during the recent "good days" for the stock market. 

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart




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Monday, September 26, 2011

Oversold market rallies, taking the Dow over 11,000

Markets surged all day, closing at the highs.  The Dow gained 272, advancers over decliners a relatively modest 5-2 & NAZ had a muted gain of 33 (held back by Apple, see below).  Banks led the rally, on optimism about European debt mess was getting straightened out.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value164.43One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change   6.95    (4.4%)

After starting the day lower, the MLP index rose & the REIT index was up 3 to 210.  Junk bond funds were mixed to lower & Treasuries sold off after their recent rally.  Oil rose in sympathy with the stock market.  Selling in gold continued.  Nobody is sure how or why, but most feel that some mysterious holders had to raise cash, forcing the sales.  Fundamental demand over the longer term is viewed as strong. 

Alerian MLP Index


Value342.89One-Year Chart for Alerian MLP Index (AMZ:IND)
Change   1.67    (0.5%)


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Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.005%

U.S. 2-year

0.227%

U.S. 10-year

1.900%

CLX11.NYMCrude Oil Nov 1180.70 Up 0.85 (1.1%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Apple Trims Orders for IPad Components

Photo:   Bloomberg

Apple (AAPL) is cutting orders to vendors in the supply chain for its iPad tablet computer, a move that may result in slower sales for Chinese companies.  Several vendors indicated in the past 2 weeks that AAPL lowered Q4 iPad orders 25%, the first such cut that analysts have ever seen.  The cut could mean a drop to 13M units in Q4 from 17M units in Q3.  Reduced orders could reflect both weakening demand in Europe due to economic conditions there as well as a strategy by AAPL to operate with reduced inventory.  So far, AAPL is not talking.  The iPad may account for 73% of tablet sales this year, according to Gartner & tablets that run on Google (GOOG) Android operating system will probably have about 17% of the market.  AAPL fell 1.13 to $403 after reaching $422 last week.

Apple Trims Orders for IPad Parts: JPMorgan

Apple Inc. (AAPL)


stock chart


Berkshire to Buy Back Stock; Cash Tops $40B

Photo:   Bloomberg

Warren Buffett is sending a signal that he believes Berkshire Hathaway is undervalued by announcing (for the first time) a plan to repurchase stock.  BRK.A will repurchase its Class A & B shares when they are trading within 10% of book value.  The Class A stock jumped 8.1% , or $8129, to $108,449.  At the end of Jun, book value per share was worth $98,716 per Class A share.  That estimate doesn't include the $9B acquisition of Lubrizol that was completed earlier this month.  Last week, Class A shares dipped below $100K for the first time since Jan 2010 as worries about the economy weighed down the overall market.


Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A)


stock chart


Boeing Rises Most in Six Weeks as 787 Delivery Ends Delays

Photo:   Bloomberg

Boeing, a Dow stock, rose the most in 6 weeks as it delivered the 787 Dreamliner, ending more than 3 years of delays on the first jetliner with a fuselage made of carbon-fiber composites.  All Nippon Airways received the plane at the BA factory in Washington.  The twin-engine 787 is the best selling jet ever, with 821 orders from 56 customers.  BA is working to boost output to 10 per month by the end of 2013.  The Dreamliner is part of a strategy to help reclaim the top spot in industry, lost to Airbus in 2003. The composite body is lighter than traditional aluminum, cutting fuel use.  Upgrades such as LED lighting & larger windows are designed to improve passengers’ in-flight experience.  The stock rose 2.50.

Boeing Rises Most in Six Weeks on 787 Delivery

Boeing Company (The) (BA)


stock chart


There was no dramatic news suggesting the kind of gain the Dow had.  Maybe it was just bargain hunters coming back after the sharp drop last week.  Bargain hunting is alive & well.  Warren Buffett's proposed stock purchase was encouraging.  But breadth in the markets was weak.  The VIX, volatility index, fell 2+ to 39, but is still in high territory.  We are also approaching the close of the month & especially the end of the Q3 which could be causing adjustments not readily explained.

SPX Volatility Index (^VIX)


 

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart



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Stocks waver on European debt crisis uncertainties

Dow rose 144, but decliners ahead of advancers 3-2 & NAZ dropped 5 on a weak tech sector.  Bank stocks are leading what rally there is (maybe bargain hunting).

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value 160.08 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change    2.60    (1.7%)

The MLP & REIT indices keep sliding, down another 1+ each.  Junk bond funds were a little soft & Treasuries were lower.  Oil fell to the lowest level in almost 7 weeks on bets that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis may worsen, crimping growth & fuel demand, & as sales of new US homes dropped to a 6-month low.  Selling is continuing in gold.  It went below $1600 briefly.

ALERIAN MLP Index (^AMZ)



DJ REIT INDEXDJR (^DJR)



Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.005%

U.S. 2-year

0.214%

U.S. 10-year

1.861%

CLX11.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 11...78.31 ....Down 1.54  (1.9%)

GCU11.CMX...Gold Sep 11.....1,626.00 ...Down 11.50  (0.7%)


Get the latest market update below:






Photo:   Yahoo

Sales of new homes fell to a 6-month low in Aug, the 4th straight monthly decline during the peak buying season suggests the housing market is years away from a recovery.  The Commerce Dept said that sales fell 2.3% to an annual rate of 295K, less than half the roughly 700K pace that are sold in a healthy housing market.  New-homes sales are on pace for the worst year since the gov began keeping records a half century ago.  While new homes represent less than 20% of the housing market, they have an outsize impact on the economy.  Each home built creates an average of 3 jobs in a year & generates about $90K in taxes.  Last year was also the 5th straight year that sales have fallen after 5 straight years of record highs, when housing was booming.  The median sales price of a new home fell nearly 9% to $209K, the lowest price since last Oct.  That suggests builders are slashing prices in order to compete with comparably lower-priced previously occupied homes.  Housing is critical to an economic recovery & it's still stuck in the mud.

New Homes Sales Fall to Six-Month Low, Prices Decline


The gov faced strikes & protests as the prospect of a debt default hung over Greece.  New austerity measures needed to appease the rescue creditors are not going over well with the nationals.  Even Greek police held their own protest, with the Special Guards unit hanging a giant black banner reading "Pay day, day of mourning."  Faced with mounting anger from the intl creditors, the gov recently announced new austerity measures to secure the next €8B ($10.7B) installment of bailout loans from the €110B rescue package agreed to last year.  Without the funds, Greece only has enough funds to see it through mid-Oct, when it faces the prospect of a messy default.  Debt inspectors from the IMF, European Commission & ECB, known collectively as the troika, are expected to return to Athens this week to resume a review amid talk of delayed implementation of reforms.  But no specific date has been set for their return, & the European Commission made clear that no decision on releasing the funds would be reached during a meeting of eurozone finance minister in Luxembourg next Mon.  The Greek drama will not end soon.


PIMCO, which runs the world’s biggest bond fund, is forecasting that European economies will stall over the next year as Europe slides into a recession.  There will be little-to-no economic growth in industrial nations in the coming 12 months as Europe’s economy shrinks by 1-2% & the US stagnates.  That will leave worldwide expansion at about 2.5%, less than the 4% forecast by the IMF.  Finance ministers & central bankers are urging European officials to intensify efforts to contain their 18-month debt crisis as Greece teetered on the edge of default.  The US Treasury Secretary called on govs to unite with the ECB to beef-up the capacity of their €440B ($594B) bailout fund, warning that failure to act threatened “cascading default, bank runs and catastrophic risk.”  More gloomy thoughts regarding Europe & its financial mess.

Pimco Forecasts Europe Recession Next Year


Markets are just muddling along.  Buying in bank stocks is a mystery, probably on hopes about a magic cure for European debt woes.  MLPs & REITs are drifting lower (along with the tech sector) which gives a better feel of what's really going on in the markets.  Eastman Kodak (EK) dropped a whopping 60¢ to $1.79 (probably a 100 year low).  It borrowed $160M against its line of credit & that's viewed as a sign of weakness.  While not material to the overall stock market, another sign of sluggish economic conditions.

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart



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Friday, September 23, 2011

Markets suffer worst week in 3 years

Dow rose 37, advancers ahead of decliners 3-2 & NAZ added 27.  Bank stock rose on words from the G20 meeting that it's “committed to a strong and coordinated international response” to help the global economy.  But talk is cheap.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value 157.48 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change    1.80    (1.2%)


The MLP index is off 16 from its peak this week & the REIT index gained 2+ to 207.  Junk bond funds were higher, up around 1% & Treasuries were weaker after their rally this week.  The yield on the 10 year Treasury back to 1.8%, still near record low territory.  Oil fell for a 3rd straight day on worries that the global economy is headed for recession, cutting demand for crude.  Gold is in its own bear market, falling $100.  Rumors say that hedge funds (easy to blame them for anything) & reserve banks were selling to raise capital.  However, long term fundamentals remain in place.

Alerian MLP Index


Value 341.22 One-Year Chart for Alerian MLP Index (AMZ:IND)
Change   -2.20    (-0.6%)

Click below for the latest market update:




Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

-0.005%

U.S. 2-year

0.214%

U.S. 10-year

1.808%

CLX11.NYM....Crude Oil Nov 11...80.13 ...Down 0.38  (0.5%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




European policymakers showed signs they were preparing new steps to cope with the Europoean debt crisis.  Finance ministers & central bankers are meeting in DC for semi-annual policy discussions, have turned up the heat on Europe to do more to prevent Greece's debt crisis from infecting the world economy.  "They have six weeks to resolve this crisis," said British finance minister George Osborne.  Euro zone leaders needed to have the situation under control by the time leaders of the Group of 20 economies meet in France in Nov, he said.  Policymakers in Europe seem to be warming to the idea of giving more firepower to their bailout fund.  The head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, said Europe & the grim economic outlook in the US required a new collective effort or "we run the risk of losing the battle for growth."  A lot of good ideas, but it's all talk.  Markets want action.



Hewlett-Packard Co. CEO Officer Meg Whitman

Photo:   Bloomberg

Hewlett-Packard, a Dow stock, sank to its lowest level in 6 years, as investors worried that new CEO Meg Whitman isn't the right person to turn the company around.  Investors are now looking for clarity about the company's direction but the company isn't looking at "getting out of the PC business."  However, it is still evaluating options for the division (the world's largest PC maker).  There are doubts about Whitman.  She led eBay (EBAY) for 10 years, taking it from a startup to one of the dominant e-commerce companies.  But some say she has no experience in enterprise technology &, indeed, no expertise outside the consumer sphere. With all the unknowns the stock sold off, falling 51¢ to $22.29.

HP’s Whitman Sticks to Strategy Begun by Apotheker to Stem 47% Stock Drop

Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ)


stock chart


BofA Leads Lenders Higher on Asset Sales

Photo:  Bloomberg

Bank of America led the Dow higher as the company prepared more asset sales to bolster capital.  BAC is in talks to sell its stake in NPC Intl the biggest US Pizza Hut franchisee, for more than $.8B.  It also agreed to sell about $880M in commercial mortgages at a discount of as much as 25%. CEO Moynihan has agreed to sell almost $50B in assets after the company lost more than half its market value this year amid concern that losses from soured mortgages will force BAC to issue stock to bolster capital.  BAC is shrinking through an initiative known as Project New BAC, which involves slashing 30K jobs from consumer banking & back-office operations. Last week it agreed to sell its stake in US hospital operator HCA Holdings which like NPC was acquired by the Merrill Lynch private-equity arm in 2006.  The stock rose 24¢ to $6.30.

BofA Leads Lenders Higher on Asset Sales

Bank of America Corporation (BAC)


stock chart


Markets weren't sure what to do.  Dow held above the 10,720 closing low last month after testing that low.  Bulls are encouraged.  But there are a ton of problems out there, including a possible gov shutdown (maybe that would be viewed as good).  MLPs got a nice bump  up recently, but that was lost in recent days.  The index is back below 350, representing a 10% decline from its record highs 5 months ago.  MLP yields have a 500 basis point advantage over the 10 year Treasury yield, but that will widen if there is more selling in MLPs.  In the ugly days 3 years ago, the spread was 1300.  The VIX volatility index, remains above 40, markets are nervous. 

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart


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